I continue the series qualifying the key data from my recently published articles in the VSiN March Mania Betting Guide for the Final 4 Round, a pair of games that figure to be classics as we have four very worthy teams still vying for the national title. Hopefully, you were able to catch my article from earlier in the week on how my strength ratings affect Saturday’s games. This piece deals with the key trends and systems in play. 

Note that all the trend records, unless noted, are as of heading into this year’s tournament. 

From the “Navigating the Tournament Round by Round” article in the guide, here are the trends and qualifying games for the Final Four round:

Unfortunately, there are no “Prior tournament game reactionary systems” of 60% or better that qualify for the Saturday games.

• In the Final Four Round, outright winning teams own a record of 39-7-2 ATS (84.8%) since 2001, although most recently, San Diego State did beat Florida Atlantic in a 2023 clash without covering.
Qualifying plays for 2026 Final Four: OUTRIGHT winners ATS

• Big 12, Big East, and Big Ten teams have combined to go 8-2 SU and ATS (80%) in their last 10 Final Four round games since 2018.
Qualifying plays for 2026 Final Four: ALL FOUR teams are from these conferences

• On totals, the last seven Final Four games that had posted numbers of 130 or less went Under, producing just 112.2 combined PPG on average. In all other games, totals are 24-19-2 Over (55.8%) in the Final Four since 1999. The Last four games have gone Under the total however.
Qualifying plays for 2026 Final Four: Over the total in Illinois-Connecticut, Michigan-Arizona

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• Bettors have been sharp in moving lines for the Final Four games since 2015, going 13-1 SU and 9-5 ATS (64.3%) in games that have seen the point spread shift off the opener.
Qualifying plays for 2026 Final Four: Despite movement on both games throughout the week, both lines for Saturday’s games have settled at the points where they opened. Follow the lines all the way up through tip-off if you wish to follow this trend.

• Eight of the last 11 Final Four games that have seen an opening total moved downward through the week until tip-off have ended up going Over the total (72.7%).
Qualifying plays for 2026 Final Four: Despite movement on both games throughout the week, both totals for Saturday’s games have settled at the points where they opened. Follow the totals all the way up through tip-off if you wish to follow this trend.

Big 12

Teams in the Final Four matchupARIZONA (West #1) vs. MICHIGAN (#1-Big Ten)

Trends

–   Underdogs are on a 10-3-1 ATS (76.9%) run in NCAAT games between the Big 12 and Big Ten conferences.
Qualifying plays for 2026 Final Four: Arizona

–  In expectedly high-scoring NCAA tournament games, or those with totals >155, Big 12 teams are on a 19-8 ATS (70.3%) run.
Qualifying plays for 2026 Final Four: Arizona

Big East

Teams in the Final Four matchupCONNECTICUT (East #2) vs. ILLINOIS (#3-Big Ten)

Trends

–   Top two seeded (#1s & #2s) from the Big East have validated their positions by going 29-7 SU and 26-10 ATS (72.2%) in the NCAA’s since 2016.
Qualifying plays for 2026 Final Four: Connecticut

–  Big East teams have gone 24-8 Under the total (75%) when matched up vs. the Big Ten in the NCAA’s since 2003.
Qualifying plays for 2026 Final Four: UNDER the total in Connecticut-Illinois

–  Favorites are 56-23 ATS (70.9%) in the last 79 Big East NCAA tourney games, including 28-9 ATS (75.7%) the last three years.
Qualifying plays for 2026 Final Four: AGAINST Connecticut

–  Big East teams have struggled in the NCAAT in the +3 to -3 line range, going 39-56 ATS (41.1%) since 2004.
Qualifying plays for 2026 Final Four: AGAINST Connecticut

Big Ten

Teams in the Final Four matchupILLINOIS (South #3) vs. CONNECTICUT (#2-Big East)
MICHIGAN (Midwest #1) vs. ARIZONA (#1-Big 12)

Trends

–   Big Ten teams are on an insane 48-21 Under the total (69.6%) run in the last four NCAA tournaments.
Qualifying plays for 2026 Final Four: UNDER the total in Illinois-Connecticut & Michigan-Arizona

–   Big Ten teams have gone just 16-23 SU and 17-21-1 ATS (44.7%) since 2015 in the NCAA tournament vs. Big 12 foes.
Qualifying plays for 2026 Final Four: AGAINST Michigan

–  In tourney games of the second round and later, Big Ten teams are just 27-42 SU and 28-39-2 ATS (41.8%) since 2017.
Qualifying plays for 2026 Final Four: AGAINST Illinois, Michigan

Here are the Final Four teams’ recent history in this round, plus any relevant head-to-head information:

(649) ILLINOIS vs. (650) CONNECTICUT
* Illinois and UConn have played each other twice in the last two+ calendar years. In the 2024 tournament, the Huskies (-8) clobbered the Illini 77-52 in an Elite Eight matchup. Earlier this season, in a neutral court November contest, the Huskies (-4.5) also won, 74-61.
* Illinois was last in the Final Four in 2005, beating Louisville 72-57 as a 3-point favorite. This is the
Illini’s sixth Final Four appearance overall.
* Connecticut has played in six Final Four games since 2004, going 5-1 SU and ATS, winning their last four. Curiously, their only loss during that 6-appearance run came in 2009, to the Big Ten’s Michigan State.

(651) MICHIGAN vs. (652) ARIZONA
* Michigan and Arizona have faced one another four times since 2004, with the Wildcats holding a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS edge. Most recently, in a 2021 neutral court game, Arizona (+3.5) upset the Wolverines 80-62.
* Michigan’s most recent Final Four appearance came in 2018 and resulted in a 69-57 win over Loyola-Illinois. In 2013, they also beat Syracuse in this round.
* Arizona last played in the Final Four in 2001, beating Michigan State 80-61.

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