Masters 2026 Pools: Picks for a Tier Contest from Matt Brown

The VSiN High Stakes Masters Challenge is simple on paper and brutal in execution. Pick one player from each of six tiers, your best five scores count across all four rounds, and missed cuts carry an eight-stroke penalty. That last rule changes everything…

You are not just hunting for winners, you are managing floor risk the entire way down the card.

For a simple look at the rules of the VSiN High Stakes Masters Challenge, refer to this graphic:

Here is how I am approaching each tier, with two options per slot.

TIER 1

Scottie Scheffler

Yes, the world number one. And yes, the market feels a little wobbly on him right now. You may see people in this contest steering away from Scheffler because his form over the last few weeks looks shakier than we are used to seeing from him. Fair point on the surface. But let’s pump the brakes before we talk ourselves out of the best golfer on the planet at the tournament he has won twice in the last four years. Augusta rewards the things Scheffler does at an elite level: driving it straight, attacking par 5s, running hot iron play when the conditions demand it. His floor in this format is exceptional, and his ceiling is another green jacket. The contrarian play in a contest like this is not picking a longshot. It is staying rational about a guy everyone else is second-guessing.

Ludvig Aberg

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If there is one player in this field who seems almost cosmically connected to Augusta National, it is the 26-year-old Swede. Aberg finished second at 7-under in 2024 and tied for seventh at 6-under in 2025, giving him two top-ten finishes before most players his age have figured out how to even get to the weekend. The course fits his game: he is a plus off the tee, ranks among the elite in strokes gained tee-to-green, and has the length to attack those par 5s which are so crucial to scoring at Augusta. The putting has been the one knock on him this season, but Augusta has a long history of rewarding elite ball-strikers who catch fire for one week on the greens. If that happens, it could be very difficult to beat him.

TIER 2

Min Woo Lee

Min Woo Lee is the kind of player who checks every box you draw up for Augusta National without ever quite getting the credit he deserves. He is long off the tee, he is aggressive on the par 5s, and he has genuinely figured something out with the flat stick over the past year. His strokes gained total ranks fifth on Tour in 2026, and he has put together three top-10 finishes in his current run. This is a complete player who can make birdies from anywhere and who will not spot the field strokes off the tee on a course where distance creates real separation. In a tier that includes some big names, Lee might be the most well-rounded option.

Jake Knapp

The results this season are hard to argue with. Knapp has played seven PGA Tour events in 2026 and finished 11th or better in all but one, with the exception being a missed cut at The Players Championship. His stretch before that included a T11, T5, 8th, T8, and 6th with a T6 two weeks ago in Houston. His bogey avoidance rate ranks third on Tour and his driving distance sits eighth, which is exactly what Augusta asks for: hit it far, do not make big numbers. He does have limited Augusta experience and his lone prior start there was a rough one, but the profile fits the course and the 2026 version of Knapp looks significantly sharper than the player who showed up there in 2024. 

TIER 3

Nicolai Hojgaard

He is playing some of the best golf of his career right now. Hojgaard entered 2026 outside the top 50 in the world and has been relentless ever since, racking up a T4 at the Dubai Desert Classic, a T3 at Phoenix, a T6 at Cognizant, and then a solo second at the Houston Open, where he shot 62-63 over the middle two rounds before being outplayed by a Gary Woodland who was simply unstoppable. His approach play this season ranks 12th on Tour, his driving distance ranks ninth, and he has been 19th in bogey avoidance. He is long, he is gaining strokes on approach at an elite rate, and he has serious momentum walking into Augusta. His Masters track record is thin and a little inconsistent, but he’s currently playing his best golf at the exact right time to contend.

Sam Burns

The concern with Burns in 2026 has been stringing four good rounds together in the same week. That has been the story, and it is a legitimate one. When he is locked in, though, the guy can make birdies with anyone in this field. He has gotten measurably longer off the tee this season, which matters at Augusta where length on those par 5s is worth real strokes. The bet here is that Burns finds his groove for 72 holes at a course that rewards his birdie-making ability. If he can keep the blow-up holes to a minimum and avoid the double bogeys that have derailed him this year, a top-15 or top-20 finish is very much in play. This is a quality-of-ball-striking pick at good value.

TIER 4

Adam Scott

The 45-year-old Australian is hitting it as well as he has in years. His approach play this season has been genuinely elite, ranking third on Tour in strokes gained on approach, which is a remarkable number for a guy who has been out here for over two decades. He has been consistently above field average in strokes gained total throughout 2026, and his Augusta experience is as deep as anyone’s in the field. He knows every slope, every tree, every pin position. The putter has not been quite as sharp this year, which is worth monitoring, but when an elite iron player with 20-plus years of Masters experience is this locked in on ball-striking, you at least need to have the conversation. A top-20 finish is a real outcome here.

Justin Thomas

This is a bet on the good version of Justin Thomas we know is still in there. Thomas missed the cut in his first tournament back at Arnold Palmer following back surgery, but came out of nowhere to finish tied for eighth at The Players Championship. That was a significant bounce-back at one of the most demanding courses on Tour. He then played the Valspar, a tournament where he nearly won last season before the Snake Pit ended his run. The building blocks are there. A two-time major champion who knows how to win big, if he catches a few good breaks and the putter heats up on the weekend, we could see something special. The risk is real. The upside is a guy who belongs at the top of a Sunday leaderboard.

TIER 5

Ryan Gerard

He is not going to overpower Augusta National. The driving distance just is not there. But Gerard is doing something very interesting with the ball in 2026: he has gained strokes off the tee in seven of his last nine tournaments despite not being a big hitter. That tells you he is in the fairway, he is managing his game intelligently, and he is not giving shots away. In a contest where missed cuts carry an eight-stroke hammer, having a guy in the lower tiers who will be there on the weekend is extremely valuable. A top-20 or top-25 is the realistic ceiling, and in this format, that is all you need from a Tier 5 pick.

Rasmus Hojgaard

The other Hojgaard brother is a fascinating pick here. He is inside the top 20 of some of the more respected predictive models in golf betting circles, and the profile makes sense: he is long, he plays the par 5s well, and when he puts four days together, this kid has serious upside. The caveat is that he has a tendency to give too many shots back on days when things are not clicking, and that bogey rate can creep up in a hurry. But at this level of the draw, you are looking for talent and course fit first, and Rasmus checks both boxes.

TIER 6

Marco Penge

Three DP World Tour wins in 2025. DP World Tour Player of the Season. Finished second in the Race to Dubai behind only Rory McIlroy. Penge averaged nearly 320 yards per drive last season, fifth best on the DP World Tour, and has immediately profiled as one of the longest hitters on the PGA Tour since making the move stateside. He has gained strokes off the tee in 19 straight tournaments dating back to last season, which is a remarkable streak of consistency for any player. His Augusta debut rests almost entirely on whether the iron game produces a spike week, because the power is not the question. It is the approach play that will determine whether this becomes a story or a first-time Major learning experience. Worth the gamble.

Gary Woodland

Woodland won the Houston Open two weeks ago in an emotional story, closing out a five-shot victory over Nicolai Hojgaard in his first win since the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach. He has played the Masters 12 times. He leads the PGA Tour in driving distance and clubhead speed in 2026, averaging over 127 mph, and at 41 years old, he is swinging it harder than players half his age. The around-the-green game has been the weak spot in his profile for much of his career, but he showed some encouraging signs in Houston where he was picking up strokes in that category. In a Tier 6 full of long shots, you could do a lot worse than a guy who just won a PGA Tour event, knows this golf course, and is hitting the ball farther than almost anyone in the field.

See all of VSiN’s coverage of The Masters, including best bets from Matt Youmans and Wes Reynolds here.

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