The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, April 8, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 354-386 but for +98.50 units and an ROI of 13.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+113 at BOS)
Trend: NY Mets are 27-10 (73%, +15.65 units) in the last 37 games vs Arizona Diamondbacks
– The ROI on this trend is 42.3%.
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-136 vs AZ)
* Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 237-156 in their last 393 tries (+35.36 units, ROI: 9%).
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+113 at MIA)
*CHECK OUT FIRST BULLPEN SYSTEM BELOW*
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse recordIn the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a strong 22-10 start for +6.91 units and an ROI of +21.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-112 at PIT), SEATTLE (-136 at TEX), CHICAGO CUBS (-110 at TB), DETROIT (-156 at MIN)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are at 6-4 for +1.36 units.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+113 at BOS)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the ’25 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a 26-14 start for +5.23 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-112 at PIT), BOSTON (-136 vs MIL), LA DODGERS (-163 at TOR)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in ‘25. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 9-15 for +0.83 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+135 vs BAL), TAMPA BAY (-110 vs CHC), MINNESOTA (+129 vs DET)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponentA 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the ’25 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 13-6 but for -3.42 units so far.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-219 vs ATH)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative systemIn combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 9-3 start for +0.87 units.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-219 vs ATH)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season longPerhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a reasonable start, 22-25 for +0.04 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+109 vs KC), MILWAUKEE (+113 at BOS), COLORADO (+129 vs HOU), CHICAGO CUBS (-110 at TB), CINCINNATI (+113 at MIA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaksI have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-‘25 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 10-12 start for -0.30 units and an ROI of -1.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – TEXAS (+113 vs SEA), MINNESOTA (+129 vs DET)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaksAround midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, but it is off to a strangely fast start, 12-6 for +8.97 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (+135 vs LAD), HOUSTON (-156 at COL)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaksBetter bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 5-6 for -2.93 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-136 at TEX), DETROIT (-156 at MIN)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 410-423 but for +43.77 units and an ROI of 5.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-136 at TEX), TORONTO (+135 vs LAD), HOUSTON (-156 at COL)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 354-386 but for +98.50 units and an ROI of 13.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+113 at BOS)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 631-729 record, but for +28.60 units and an ROI of 2.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-131 at CLE), SAN DIEGO (-112 at PIT), MILWAUKEE (+113 at BOS), SEATTLE (-136 at TEX), HOUSTON (-156 at COL), PHILADELPHIA (-136 at SF)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponentTeams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7 runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 433-417 (50.9%) for +19.18 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.3%.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-110 vs CHC)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next gameSince 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2001-1886 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -252.98 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-110 at TB)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outingYou’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2000-2546 (44%) for -247.26 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, SAN DIEGO, MILWAUKEE, DETROIT, SEATTLE, HOUSTON, PHILADELPHIA
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outingGoing back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4041-3514 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -510.74 units and an ROI of -6.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, WASHINGTON, NY YANKEES, COLORADO, SAN FRANCISCO
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hostsHome teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 330-297 (52.6%) for +19.36 units and an ROI of 3.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-110 vs CHC)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 66-36 SU for +16.92 units (ROI: 16.6%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-136 at TEX), DETROIT (-156 at MIN)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 214-245 SU but for +45.91 units (ROI: 10%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+129 vs HOU)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 448-508 SU but for +69.01 units (ROI: 7.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+113 at BOS), ARIZONA (+113 at NYM)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting on teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 268-285 run (+7.50 units, ROI: 1.4%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+135 vs LAD), SEATTLE (-136 at TEX)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 181-145 (+14.67 units, ROI: 4.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+113 at MIA)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 237-156 in their last 393 tries (+35.36 units, ROI: 9%).
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+113 at MIA)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 140-140 (-57.38 units, ROI: -20.5%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-163 at TOR)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:System Matches: ATHLETICS +179 (+25 diff), CLEVELAND +109 (+21), SAN FRANCISCO +113 (+16)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BALTIMORE -163 (+17 diff), LA DODGERS -163 (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:System Matches: LAD-TOR OVER 7.5 (+1.2), KC-CLE OVER 7 (+0.9), MIL-BOS OVER 7 (+0.9), CHC-TB OVER 8 (+0.6), DET-MIN OVER 8 (+0.5), SD-PIT OVER 7 (+0.5), STL-WSH OVER 8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:System Matches: PHI-SF UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), HOU-COL UNDER 11.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) SAN DIEGO (5-6) at (952) PITTSBURGH (7-4)Trend: Over the total is 10-0 (+10.00 units) as favorites within -115 to -165 line range against NL teams with starter Michael King since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SD-PIT (o/u at 7)
(957) CINCINNATI (8-3) at (958) MIAMI (6-5)Trend: MIA is 1-9 (-10.73 units) as a short favorite (within line range of -115 to -140) with starter Eury Perez the last few seasons
Trend: MIA is 5-10 (-7.00 units) against NL Central/West opponents, with starter Eury Perez the last few seasons
Trends Match (FADE): MIAMI (-136 vs CIN)
(959) ARIZONA (5-6) at (960) NEW YORK-NL (7-4)Trend: Over the total is 12-4-3 (+7.50 units) when AZ is on the road and faces teams with a >= 0.480 win pct with starter Ryne Nelson since the start of the 2024 season, going over the listed total by 2.64 runs on average
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): AZ-NYM (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: NYM is 20-6 (+9.89 units) as a -130 favorite or higher with starter David Peterson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-136 vs AZ)
(963) BALTIMORE (5-6) at (964) CHICAGO-AL (4-7)Trend: BAL is 14-3 (+10.27 units) with starter Kyle Bradish against teams with a 47% or lower win pct
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-163 at CWS)
(965) SEATTLE (4-8) at (966) TEXAS (6-5)Trend: MacKenzie Gore has gone 6-16 (-13.97 units) as a starter in home games vs teams with losing records in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+113 vs SEA)
(967) ATHLETICS (3-7) at (968) NEW YORK-AL (8-2)Trend: Luis Severino is 17-38 (-18.06 units) as an underdog in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+179 at NYY)
(969) DETROIT (4-7) at (970) MINNESOTA (5-6)Trend: MIN is 8-4 (+5.33 units) as a +100 or worse underdog at home with starter Bailey Ober in the last 4+ seasons
Trend: MIN is 5-1 (+4.00 units) at home vs Detroit Tigers with starter Bailey Ober the last 4+ seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+129 vs DET)
(971) MILWAUKEE (8-3) at (972) BOSTON (3-8)Trend: Sonny Gray is 3-6 (-5.27 units) in his last nine home starts vs Milwaukee
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (-136 vs MIL)
(973) LOS ANGELES-NL (9-2) at (974) TORONTO (4-7)Trend: Dylan Cease 2-7 (-4.29 units) as large home underdog of +135 or higher
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (+135 vs LAD)
(975) HOUSTON (6-6) at (976) COLORADO (5-6)Trend: HOU is 5-1 (+4.00 units) vs NL West teams with starter Cristian Javier in career
Trend: HOU is 18-5 (+11.89 units) during the DAY with Cristian Javier in the last 3+ seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-156 at COL)
(979) CHICAGO-NL (5-6) at (980) TAMPA BAY (5-6)Trend: Colin Rea has been a good bet in the -120 to +135 line range (26-13 record, +14.35 units) in the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-110 at TB)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #4: Arizona at NY Mets, Tue 4/7-Thu 4/9Trend: NY Mets are 27-10 (73%, +15.65 units) in the last 37 games vs Arizona Diamondbacks
– The ROI on this trend is 42.3%.
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-136 vs AZ)
Series #7: Philadelphia at San Francisco, Mon 4/6-Wed 4/8
Trend: Home teams are on a 20-6 (76.9%, +13.95 units) run in the Giants-Phillies National League series
– The ROI on this trend is 53.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+113 vs PHI)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the ‘24 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): CINCINNATI
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS, ATLANTA, CHICAGO CUBS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
– Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and an ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS, NY YANKEES
The post Steve Makinen’s MLB Picks from Betting Splits and Systems for Wednesday, April 8 appeared first on VSiN.
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