Lots of day games on the docket for Wednesday, as we get plenty of getaway day action. That being said, we have a good selection of evening affairs as well, with the schedule basically split 6/9 with games that start at 4:10 p.m. ET and earlier and then 6:40 p.m. ET and later. A lot of the games today have pretty decent-sized favorites and it’s been a rough start for me with picking underdogs, so that’s a bit of a worry, but we have a lot of different markets to think about.

As usual, in the interest of lead time, I’m looking only at the games that are late enough to give readers a chance to take in the info and analysis and decide if they like it or not.

I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.

One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.

Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

That’s a lot of coverage and we’ll be doing it all season long. We’re happy to have you along for the ride.

Here are the MLB best bets today for April 22:

Milwaukee Brewers at Detroit Tigers (-136, 8)

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6:40 p.m. ET

We start with a pretty simple play here and a line that has moved about 10 cents, but it’s still a worthwhile endeavor in my estimation. The Tigers host the Brewers in a matchup that will feature Casey Mize and Chad Patrick. Mize seems healthy this season coming off of 149 innings last season with a 3.87 ERA, 3.66 xERA, and a 3.89 FIP. He’s off to a good start this season with a 2.78 ERA, 3.62 xERA, and a 3.14 FIP in his 22.2 innings of work. His fastball velo is down about a tick, but he’s made some cold-weather starts and I would expect it to bounce back as the weather warms up.

So far, Mize is posting the lowest average exit velocity against of his career along with his highest K% at 26.6%. He’s better leveraging the pitch that made him a star at Auburn and gave him a really high projection as a big leaguer. His 29.9% splitter usage is a career-high and has come at the expense of a curveball that was never really a positive pitch for him. We’re also seeing some more slider usage this season as something with some horizontal movement to offset the fastball and splitter with more vertical planes.

Patrick is a ball of regression right now. He has a 0.95 ERA with a 3.06 xERA and a 3.98 FIP. It’s the 5.39 xFIP that stands out to me, as he only has a 37.3% GB% and has only allowed one homer. He’s made three starts at home and one road outing against the Royals, who have been one of the worst offenses in the league thus far. Patrick is running a .241 BABIP and a 97.1% LOB% with very pedestrian stuff, as he has a 12% K% with a 9.3% BB%. There’s not a lot of sustainability to that kind of profile, even if the Brewers are full of miracle workers on the player dev side of the pitching spectrum.

The Brewers are missing some key offensive pieces right now with Andrew Vaughn, Jackson Chourio, and Christian Yelich all sidelined. Mize has allowed just a .137/.167/.137 slash with a .144 wOBA to lefties over 54 plate appearances and the Brewers, like a lot of small-market teams, do try to leverage platoons when possible.

The Tigers bullpen is well-rested after yesterday’s blowout loss, as none of the primary relievers were called into action. That’s good because I think they’ll have a lead to protect tonight.

Pick: Tigers -136

Atlanta Braves (-156, 9) at Washington Nationals

6:45 p.m. ET

We’ve had a pitching change in this game, as Didier Fuentes now gets the start as opposed to Martin Perez. To say that this is a big downgrade for the Washington offense is an understatement. The Nationals are a top-five offense against lefties and rank around league average against righties. They also have some pretty clear regression signs against high velocity, currently posting a .328 BA with a .272 xBA, a .517 SLG with a .455 xSLG, and a .401 wOBA with a .346 xwOBA.

If we trim that data set to just right-handed pitchers, you get a .281 BA with a .256 xBA, a .458 SLG with a .446 xSLG, and a .355 wOBA with a .333 xwOBA. This is a lineup that has feasted on southpaws, but there are some clear downswings against righties. They go from a soft-tosser in Perez to a hard-thrower in Fuentes. I think it’s very dangerous to judge Fuentes based on the 20 runs he allowed in 13 innings at the MLB level last season. He turned 20 in June and has certainly grown as a pitcher since.

The Braves used five relievers yesterday, but none of their leverage guys. Newly-minted closer Robert Suarez hasn’t pitched since Sunday and neither has Dylan Lee. Tyler Kinley worked Sunday and Monday, but had yesterday off. The bullpen should be in fine shape today, which is important because Fuentes may not work super deep into the game based on pitch count and the fact that he still won’t turn 21 until June, so there’s a lot of promise there.

Atlanta will take their cuts against Zack Littell, who has allowed 15 runs on 27 hits in 19 innings of work. The regression monster found him last time out against the Giants with eight runs on 11 hits in just four innings. He’s given up seven homers out of just 89 batters and some batted balls in play found holes last time out. He’s still running a 77.6% LOB% despite a low K%. His HR/FB% and HR/9 should stabilize a bit moving forward, but he draws a Braves lineup that is third in HR and second in SLG this season against RHP.

As has been the case for a while, the Nationals have a bad bullpen, as they rank 26th in ERA at 5.51, 29th in xERA at 5.45, and 29th in FIP at 5.67. The Braves have a vastly better bullpen. I think the run line is in order here, especially because we will definitely get nine sets of plate appearances from the visiting Braves.

Pick: Braves Run Line -1.5 (+109)

Pittsburgh Pirates (-115, 8) at Texas Rangers

8:05 p.m. ET

My favorite pitching matchup of the night is in Arlington between Braxton Ashcraft and Jack Leiter. Ashcraft is off to a better start with a 2.38 ERA, 2.00 xERA, and a 1.82 FIP in his 22.2 innings, while Leiter has a 4.87 ERA with a 5.49 xERA and a 4.17 FIP. Leiter’s last two starts have been rough against the Dodgers and Athletics on the road with eight runs allowed on 12 hits over 9.1 innings. He struck out 17 of the first 44 batters he faced this season, but hasn’t replicated that success and has as many strikeouts (7) as walks in his last two outings.

So, that’s why the Pirates are favored and I’m looking at some player props against Leiter. So far, lefties are slashing .324/.432/.541 with a .433 wOBA in 44 PA with 12 hits, two doubles, and two homers. Leiter has a 32.6% K% against RHB, but a 20.5% K% and a 13.6% BB% against lefties.

Enter Ryan O’Hearn, who already has 18 hits, including three doubles and three homers, against RHP on the season with a .346/.444/.577 slash and a .443 wOBA. Unfortunately, the Pirates were missing Brandon Lowe and Spencer Horwitz yesterday, something I really didn’t expect against Kumar Rocker, as that was a big part of my handicap. I’m not sure if they’ll be in today or what, exactly, they’re dealing with, so I’ll stick to O’Hearn, but if you see those guys in the lineup later, they are slashing .347/.484/.796 and .265/.373/.429, respectively, against RHP.

For O’Hearn today, I like Over 1.5 Total Bases at +138, as the Rangers also have four righties out in their bullpen if he doesn’t get there against Leiter. I also like O’Hearn Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI at -108. Hopefully the other lefties are in there to help with this one, but Leiter’s struggles in his last two starts give me confidence that O’Hearn can get driven in if he’s on base or do the driving in.

Similarly, though, Leiter has done really well against righties. Overall, Marcell Ozuna is only batting .178/.241/.288 with a .243 wOBA and a 47 wRC+. Against righties, he has nine hits in 56 plate appearances and has struck out 16 times. Not ideal with a 28.6% K%. Even against lefties, Ozuna only has four hits in 23 PA. I’ll take Ozuna Under 0.5 Hits at +116.

For these players, our OptaAI MLB Player Prop Projections have O’Hearn with 1.77 Total Bases and 2.13 H+R+R; Ozuna is lined for 0.97 hits.

Picks: Ryan O’Hearn (PIT) Over 1.5 Total Bases (+138), Over 1.5 H+R+R (-108); Marcell Ozuna (PIT) Under 0.5 Hits (+116)

The post MLB Best Bets Today: Adam Burke’s Picks for Wednesday, April 22 appeared first on VSiN.