The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, April 22, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 361-395 but for +98.75 units and an ROI of 13.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+119 at MIA), CINCINNATI (+119 at TB), HOUSTON (+129 at CLE), BALTIMORE (+113 at KC), TORONTO (+129 at LAA)
Trend: SEA is 9-0 (+9.25 units) at HOME vs Athletics with Logan Gilbert in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-186 vs ATH)
* Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 146-146 (-60.62 units, ROI: -20.8%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-175 vs PHI)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a strong 49-31 start for +8.05 units and an ROI of +10.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-186 vs ATH), NY METS (-163 vs MIN)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 2-3 for -1.43 units and an ROI of -28.6%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): LA ANGELS (-156 vs TOR)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 10-14 for -5.27 units and an ROI of -22%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-143 vs STL), CINCINNATI (+119 at TB), PHILADELPHIA (+144 at CHC)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a 47-29 start for +3.17 units and an ROI of 4.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-186 vs ATH), BOSTON (+119 vs NYY), LA DODGERS (-219 at SF)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 22-29 for +5.36 units. I don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (+129 at CLE), MINNESOTA (+135 at NYM)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a 3-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 18-11 but for -10.23 units so far. Be cautious with this one.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (-219 at SF)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! After a solid +8.13 unit week, the 2026 season is off to a solid start, 46-41 for +10.49 units (12.1% ROI).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+119 at TB), BALTIMORE (+113 at KC), TORONTO (+129 at LAA), MILWAUKEE (+113 at DET), BOSTON (+119 vs NYY), TEXAS (-105 vs PIT)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 23-31 start for -4.37 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last 3 regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 6-16 for -9.54 units and an ROI of -43.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – ATHLETICS (+153 at SEA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+129 at AZ)
3+ games – NY YANKEES (-143 at BOS)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it comes off a phenomenal week of -11.16 units, and the overall season record is now 22-30 for -4.36 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-143 vs CIN), LA ANGELS (-156 vs TOR), PHILADELPHIA (+144 at CHC)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 14-18 for -10.95 units.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NY METS (-163 vs MIN)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 361-395 but for +98.75 units and an ROI of 13.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+119 at MIA), CINCINNATI (+119 at TB), HOUSTON (+129 at CLE), BALTIMORE (+113 at KC), TORONTO (+129 at LAA)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 159-64 for +15.29 units and an ROI of 6.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-186 vs ATH)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7-runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 437-419 (51.1%) for +20.80 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.4%.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-136 vs MIL)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2018-1908 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -262.70 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, MILWAUKEE, WASHINGTON, CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2022-2578 (44%) for -255.08 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4085-3551 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -516.31 units and an ROI of -6.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, TAMPA BAY, WASHINGTON, KANSAS CITY, CHICAGO CUBS, TEXAS, ARIZONA
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 606-501 (54.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +29.66 units, for an ROI of 2.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS, COLORADO, SAN FRANCISCO
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 333-299 (52.7%) for +19.53 units and an ROI of 3.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-136 vs MIL)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 215-247 SU but for +45.60 units (ROI: 9.9%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+129 vs SD)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 475-536 SU but for +75.42 units (ROI: 7.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+129 at CLE), BALTIMORE (+113 at KC), PHILADELPHIA (+144 at CHC)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 72-147 skid (-43.58 units, ROI: -19.9%).
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-22 (+9.01 units, ROI: 22.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 95-179 (-63.66 units, ROI: -23.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
Systems Match (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+144 at CHC), NY METS (-163 vs MIN)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 182-148 (+12.67 units, ROI: 3.8%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+119 at TB)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 240-159 in their last 399 tries (+35.36 units, ROI: 8.9%).
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-175 vs PHI)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 146-146 (-60.62 units, ROI: -20.8%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-175 vs PHI)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN FRANCISCO +179 (+39 diff), TEXAS -105 (+28), CINCINNATI +119 (+16), PHILADELPHIA +144 (+15)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA -156 (+34 diff), SAN DIEGO -156 (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOU-CLE OVER 8 (+0.6), TOR-LAA OVER 8 (+0.5), PIT-TEX OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SD-COL UNDER 12.5 (-1.2), CWS-AZ UNDER 9 (-0.9), BAL-KC UNDER 9.5 (-0.7), CIN-TB UNDER 8.5 (-0.6)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(955) PHILADELPHIA (8-15) at (956) CHICAGO-NL (14-9)
Trend: Matthew Boyd is 11-1 (+8.95 units) in home night games since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-175 vs PHI)
(957) SAN DIEGO (16-7) at (958) COLORADO (9-15)
Trend: Walker Buehler has dominated lesser competition, going 23-6 (+10.53 units) against teams with a < 40% win pct since 2019
Trend: Walker Buehler is 38-15 (+9.03 units) against NL West opponents since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-156 at COL)
(963) BALTIMORE (11-13) at (964) KANSAS CITY (8-16)
Trend: Chris Bassitt’s teams are 20-10 (+4.10 units) vs AL Central opponents in the last 6+ seasons
Trend: Chris Bassitt’s teams are 26-15 (+4.72 units) in day games vs teams with a losing record in the last 6+ seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+113 at KC)
(965) TORONTO (10-13) at (966) LOS ANGELES-AL (11-14)
Trend: LAA is 0-9 (-12.37 units) with starter Jose Soriano in home games against non-divisional opponents with a losing record since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (-156 vs TOR)
(967) ATHLETICS (13-11) at (968) SEATTLE (10-15)
Trend: Aaron Civale’s teams are 23-10 (+7.07 units) against teams with a < 43% win pct in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+153 at SEA)
Trend: SEA is 9-0 (+9.25 units) at home vs Athletics with Logan Gilbert in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-186 vs ATH)
(977) PITTSBURGH (13-10) at (978) TEXAS (12-11)
Trend: TEX is 9-16 (-7.08 units) when facing teams with a >= 0.500 win pct with starter Jack Leiter since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-105 vs PIT)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trend
Series #2: LA Angels at Toronto, Mon 4/20-Wed 4/22
Trend: Home teams are 15-24 (38.5%, -15.85 units) in the last 39 games between the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays
– The ROI on this trend is -40.6%.
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (-156 vs TOR)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): ST LOUIS, CINCINNATI, MILWAUKEE, PHILADELPHIA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, MILWAUKEE, NY METS, PITTSBURGH, ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, SEATTLE, NY METS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
– Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and an ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, KANSAS CITY, LA ANGELS, SEATTLE, NY METS, ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SD-COL, CWS-AZ
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday, April 24)
The post Steve Makinen’s MLB Picks from Betting Splits and Systems for Wednesday, April 22 appeared first on VSiN.
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