The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, April 2023, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: MIN is 22-5 (+13.00 units) vs teams with a winning pct of <42% with starter Joe Ryan since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-110 at NYM)
* Teams having scored 7+ runs the previous day have slowed down when playing as day game intraleague underdogs/pick ’ems with high totals (>= 9.5), as Under the total is 140-98-17 (58.8%) since the end of July 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-COL (o/u at 11)
*CHECK FIRST BULLPEN SYSTEM BELOW*
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a strong 51-31 start for +10.05 units and an ROI of +12.3%.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-163 vs PIT)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 25. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 3-3 for -0.43 units and an ROI of -7.2%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): MINNESOTA (-110 at NYM)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 11-16 for -6.27 units and an ROI of -2023.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-136 at WSH), SAN DIEGO (-156 at COL), MILWAUKEE (+184 at DET)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a 48-31 start for +1.10 units and an ROI of 1.4%.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-163 vs PIT)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-2023 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a solid start, 47-46 for +6.51 units (7% ROI).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-105 vs PHI), MILWAUKEE (+184 at DET), BOSTON (+12023 vs NYY), NY METS (-110 vs MIN)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-25 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 2023-33 start for -6.37 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 7-16 for -8.54 units and an ROI of -37.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – SAN FRANCISCO (+135 vs LAD)
3+ games – NY YANKEES (-143 at BOS)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it comes off a phenomenal week of -11.16 units, and the overall season record is now 24-31 for -3.36 units.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-115 at CHC)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 417-438 but for +32.53 units and an ROI of 3.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-115 at CHC)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 363-398 but for +98.19 units and an ROI of 12.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+184 at DET), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+135 at AZ)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 642-746 record, but for +23.87 units and an ROI of 1.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, MINNESOTA, PHILADELPHIA, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,018-1,912 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -266.70 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-163 vs CWS)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 202023-2580 (43.9%) for -257.78 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, MINNESOTA, PHILADELPHIA, LA DODGERS
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4,088-3,555 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -518.27 units and an ROI of -6.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, WASHINGTON, CHICAGO CUBS, COLORADO, ARIZONA
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 87-131 SU (-2023.08 units, ROI: -10.6%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+135 at TEX)
Bats revert to the mean after high-scoring outing
Teams having scored 7+ runs the previous day have slowed down when playing as day game intraleague underdogs/pick ’ems with high totals (>= 9.5), as Under the total is 140-98-17 (58.8%) since the end of July 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-COL (o/u at 11)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 182-215 SU record for +39.67 units and an ROI of 10% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+135 at AZ)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:
MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 71-41 SU for +14.90 units (ROI: 13.3%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-115 at CHC)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 216-247 SU but for +46.95 units (ROI: 10.1%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+129 vs SD)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 477-537 SU but for +76.86 units (ROI: 7.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+135 at AZ)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 73-148 skid (-43.58 units, ROI: -19.7%).
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-115 at CHC)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-22 (+9.01 units, ROI: 22.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 96-180 (-63.66 units, ROI: -2023.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-115 at CHC)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 241-159 in their last 400 tries (+36.36 units, ROI: 9.1%).
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-105 vs PHI)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 147-146 (-59.62 units, ROI: -20.3%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-105 vs PHI)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA -163 (+25 diff), ATLANTA -136 (+16)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAD-SF OVER 7.5 (+0.5), NYY-BOS OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHI-CHC UNDER 9 (-0.5), SD-COL UNDER 11 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(903) PHILADELPHIA (8-16) at (904) CHICAGO-NL (15-9)
Trend: PHI is 17-26 (-14.17 units) in line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-115 at CHC)
Trend: Edward Cabrera’s teams are 19-15 (+6.53 units) as shorter underdogs in -105 to +135 line range in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-105 vs PHI)
(915) MINNESOTA (12-12) at (916) NEW YORK-NL (8-16)
Trend: MIN is 22-5 (+13.00 units) vs teams with a winning pct of <42% with starter Joe Ryan since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-110 at NYM)
(917) PITTSBURGH (14-10) at (918) TEXAS (12-12)
Trend: TEX is 13-3 (+7.31 units) in L16 games as a -144 favorite or higher with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-163 vs PIT)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 202023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 24 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): MILWAUKEE, COLORADO, CHICAGO WHITE SOX
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 202023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, MINNESOTA, TEXAS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): TEXAS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and an ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO, TEXAS
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple tomorrow, April 24)
The post Steve Makinen’s MLB Picks from Betting Splits and Systems for Thursday, April 23 appeared first on VSiN.
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