We’ll have 14 games on Friday night to kick off the weekend, but that means two teams are missing. That’s because the Diamondbacks and Padres will play a couple games in Mexico City this weekend. I’ll discuss those more tomorrow, but Mexico City is a couple thousand feet higher in elevation than Denver, so expect a very high total for those two tilts.
As far as teams that are playing, every game starts at 6:40 p.m. ET or later today, so we’ve got plenty of time to handicap the card and see what stands out. There are five noticeable road favorites in tonight’s action, so we’ll see if they can do what is expected of them or if the home dogs will be barking.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
That’s a lot of coverage and we’ll be doing it all season long. We’re happy to have you along for the ride.
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 24:
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles (-122, 9)
Embed from Getty Images7:05 p.m. ET
It’s been mostly doom and gloom for the Red Sox so far this season, as nothing seems to be going right. The offense has dramatically underperformed and the pitching staff hasn’t lived up to expectations. I know it’s tough to back them right now, but I’m actually going to do it today with Brayan Bello on the bump.
This may seem like an odd time to back Bello and the BoSox, but there’s a method to the madness here. Generally speaking, I know that more has been expected of Bello, who has a career 4.18 ERA with a 4.41 xERA and a 4.21 FIP over 562 career innings. And he’s off to a very rough start this season with a 6.75 ERA, 6.85 xERA, and a 5.77 FIP. He continues to lag behind in the K% and BB% departments. But, I have hope that improvements are coming.
Let’s start here – Bello has dramatically raised his arm angle this season. It hasn’t been talked about because of all the bitching about the Red Sox and he’s been caught up in that, deservedly so. However, even though his K% is just 14.1%, a major drop from last season’s 17.7%, he’s running a career-best 14.9% SwStr%. He actually has just a 76.8% Z-Contact% against, which is outstanding. His CSW% of 28.4% is also a career-high, even though he’s not getting a lot of called strikes. I think the upside is still there. He’s definitely adjusting to the new arm slot, which is about a 10-degree difference on average from last season.
He’s in the 88th percentile in Whiff% and GB%, as well as in the 66th percentile in Hard Hit%. As Bello and manager Alex Cora noted after his last start, he’s just not putting guys away with two strikes. They’re not wrong. Opposing batters are slashing .297/.366/.432 with two strikes. Adjustments can be made to that. Plus, the Orioles rank 27th in OPS and 29th in BA with two strikes this season. If Bello keeps getting into two-strike counts, positive regression will come.
Brandon Young gets the call for the O’s today and he’s basically the definition of a Quad-A arm, in that he’s too good for Triple-A and not good enough for MLB. He threw five shutout innings with two hits allowed in his Apr. 6 start against the White Sox, but he only struck out two batters with a SwStr% of 7.6%. He had a 6.24 ERA with a 4.28 xERA and a 5.35 FIP in 57.2 innings last season.
Maybe adding a sinker will help Young, as he did have a 57.1% GB% in that start against the White Sox and he’s been more of a ground ball guy in recent years, but I think he’s just a 4.50-5.00 ERA guy at the MLB level.
Neither offense has excelled against righties this season, though Boston has definitely been worse. I still see a lot of upside to this offense. The bullpens are comparable. I’ll take a shot on the Red Sox here some positive underlying metrics for Bello.
Pick: Red Sox +102
Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays (-131, 7.5)
7:10 p.m. ET
This is likely to be an emotional start for Taj Bradley, as he returns to Tropicana Field to face his old team. Bradley is off to a tremendous start with the Twins, as he’s posted a 1.63 ERA with a 1.99 FIP over 27.2 innings of work. He has 34 strikeouts against 10 walks with zero homers allowed. Tropicana Field is a very friendly pitcher’s park, but all five of his starts have come in cooler climates. His fly ball approach is something I’d watch closely as we go forward.
Bradley’s running an 86.1% LOB%, which is part of the ERA-xERA difference. He has allowed a lot of hard contact so far with a 45.8% Hard Hit%, but just a 4.2% Barrel%. He’s been pitching above the barrel and guys have hit a lot of lazy aerial contact that has good exit velos off the bat. While it’s working now, I am concerned going forward about the effectiveness of that, especially with a 44.4% Pull%.
His 28.8% K% is fantastic, but is it sustainable? He’s got an 11.4% SwStr%, which is pretty average, and nothing stands out about his Chase Rate. He’s in the 83rd percentile in K%, but the 57th percentile in Whiff% and 48th percentile in Chase%. I feel like some major regression is coming. The market seems to as well, given that we’ve seen a noteworthy line move towards the Rays here at multiple times.
Drew Rasmussen allowed one hit over six shutout innings to the Yankees in his only start at Tropicana Field this season. He struck out seven and didn’t walk anybody. He has a 2.75 ERA with a 2.79 xERA. His 4.22 FIP is a byproduct of the four homers that he has allowed this season. Three of them have actually been multi-run homers, but that’s about all that he’s given up.
Rasmussen should be in a good spot here. He’s back at home. The Twins landed in Clearwater at PIE after 3:30 a.m. ET after leaving LGA about 90 minutes late. The Twins played yesterday while the Rays did not. Everything seems to be pointing in TB’s favor in this one.
Also, the Twins have an 11.1% BB% that has helped carry their offense against righties. Rasmussen doesn’t really walk anybody. Minnesota has also struck out more than 25% of the time in that split. I’m a tad concerned that his SwStr% is down to 8.9%, but he absolutely pummels the strike zone and the Twins are 27th in Swing%. There’s some hefty vig on Over 4.5 Strikeouts, but pitching at home in a comfortable environment in this matchup should make it okay. He’s had a K% of 24% or better in every season while pitching at the Trop. His home K% fell to 21.6% last season, but the Rays had to play outside at the Yankees’ Spring Training complex.
Picks: Rays -131; Drew Rasmussen (TB) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-143)
Athletics at Texas Rangers (-149, 8.5)
8:05 p.m. ET
Another strikeout prop here in this one, as Nathan Eovaldi slots in against the Athletics. Eovaldi struck out seven A’s over seven innings in Sacramento two starts ago and will make just his second home start of the season. In his only home outing, Eovaldi struck out seven Mariners over six innings. He’s struck out 29 in 26.2 innings overall against just eight walks, as his pitch efficiency numbers have been very strong throughout his career.
Eovaldi had a 28% K% at home last season, following up a solid 25% K% at home in 2024. The A’s have a 23.4% K% against right-handed pitching this season, which ranks 21st, but they have the fifth-highest K% on the road at 26.8% and their BB% drops to 6.8%, as pitchers are more aggressive when not pitching in that minor league park that the A’s call home.
The A’s have a 26.5% K% against RHP in road games this season. That should bode well for Eovaldi, who projects to work deep into this game and that should give him the chance to get Over 5.5 Strikeouts at plus money.
Pick: Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+102)
New York Yankees (-149, 9) at Houston Astros
8:10 p.m. ET
A couple of right-handers are on the bump here in this battle between the Yankees and Astros. Will Warren will look to continue his excellent start to the season and Lance McCullers Jr. will try to get back on track for Houston.
I don’t think it will happen and, to be honest, I think McCullers might be hurt again. The Astros are a complete mess right now with so many injuries and they’re simply trying to hold on for dear life. McCullers had a pretty noticeable velocity drop in his last start against the Cardinals and his velo was dropping over the course of that start.
He struck out nine Red Sox in his first start over seven innings, but only has 12 strikeouts in his last 13.1 innings with eight walks allowed and 13 runs on 15 hits. There are some positive regression signs in the metrics with a 6.20 ERA, 4.51 xERA, and a 3.99 FIP, but he’s trending in the wrong direction in a lot of areas – pitch efficiency, health, and command. McCullers has had a lower arm angle in each of his four starts on his sinker, which might be a sign of either arm fatigue or injury.
As it is, he’s allowed a 50% Hard Hit% and a 9.3% Barrel%, so he’s allowing a good amount of hard contact. Warren, meanwhile, has a 2.49 ERA with a 3.67 xERA and a 3.07 FIP in his 25.1 innings of work. He’s struck out 31, including 11 Royals punchies last time out. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in a start. And he has a good bullpen in support, which is not something that McCullers has.
I’m on a full-fledged Astros and McCullers fade here in this one. The Houston bullpen has been miserable this season and Warren, who has struck out over a batter per inning with a 51% GB%, looks to match up very well here.
Picks: Yankees Run Line -1.5 (+109); Lance McCullers (HOU) Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-133), Under 14.5 Outs (+127)
The post MLB Best Bets Today: Adam Burke’s Picks for Friday, April 24 appeared first on VSiN.
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