The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, April 24, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* WASHINGTON letdown in follow-up game after divisional series vs. ATLANTA: 10-25 (28.6%) -17.42 units, ROI: -49.8%
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+104 at CWS)
* Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won nine games in a row or more, the lowest-priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks of 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 42-23 (+20.15 units, ROI: 31%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+139 at LAD)
Trend: PIT is 13-3 (+9.24 units) as small favorite/pick ‘em (-136 to -110 line range) with starter Paul Skenes since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-126 at MIL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a strong 52-31 start for +11.05 units and an ROI of +13.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-219 vs COL), BOSTON (+102 at BAL), TEXAS (-149 at ATH), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-126 vs WSH), CHICAGO CUBS (+139 at LAD), SEATTLE (-149 at STL)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 3-4 for -1.48 units and an ROI of -21.1%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): TAMPA BAY (-131 vs MIN)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 13-17 for -5.27 units and an ROI of -17.6%.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-105 vs MIA)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a 49-31 start for +2.10 units and an ROI of 2.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+104 vs PIT), CLEVELAND (-126 at TOR), TEXAS (-149 vs ATH), DETROIT (-131 at CIN), SEATTLE (-149 at STL)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 23-30 for +5.75 units. I don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+179 at NYM), HOUSTON (+123 vs NYY), ST LOUIS (+123 vs SEA)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units. The 2026 record so far is 13-4 for +3.38 units, as big favorites are off to an unusually strong start overall.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (-219 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a solid start, 48-48 for +5.51 units (5.7% ROI).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+104 vs PIT), CHICAGO CUBS (+139 at LAD), BOSTON (+102 at BAL), LA ANGELS (-105 at KC), CINCINNATI (+109 vs DET)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 23-34 start for -7.37 units.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-131 at CIN)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it comes off a phenomenal week of -11.16 units, and the overall season record is now 24-32 for -4.51 units.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+123 at ATL)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 15-18 for -9.95 units.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): BOSTON (+102 at BAL)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 449-365 for +28.49 units and an ROI of 3.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-149 at HOU), CHICAGO CUBS (+139 at LAD)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 217-162 for +19.37 units and an ROI of 5.1% since the start of the 2022 season (check everyone 4/24)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-126 at MIL), CLEVELAND (-126 at TOR), MIAMI (-115 at SF)
*WATCH FOR DETROIT at CIN (-131 CURRENTLY)*
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 136-174 for -35.30 units and an ROI of -11.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-105 vs MIA)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 379-324 but for -80.22 units and an ROI of -11.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-122 vs BOS), ATLANTA (-149 vs PHI), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-126 vs WSH), LA DODGERS (-168 vs CHC)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 409-350 record for +55.89 units and an ROI of 7.4% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (-105 at KC), CHICAGO CUBS (+139 at LAD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2018-1913 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -268.19 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (-219 vs COL)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2024-2583 (43.9%) for -259.98 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, PITTSBURGH, BOSTON, WASHINGTON
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4090-3558 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -519.76 units and an ROI of -6.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, KANSAS CITY, TAMPA BAY, ATLANTA, NY METS, TEXAS
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 609-501 (54.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +33.70 units, for an ROI of 3%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-105 vs MIA)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 87-132 SU (-24.08 units, ROI: -11%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (-105 at KC)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record of 183-215 SU record for +40.90 units and an ROI of 10.3% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+123 at ATL)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 478-537 SU but for +78.09 units (ROI: 7.7%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 161-174 SU for +37.11 units in the last 335 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+104 at CWS), PHILADELPHIA (+123 at ATL), ATHLETICS (+123 at TEX), BOSTON (+102 at BAL), MINNESOTA (+109 at TB)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more are on a 38-102 skid (-40.99 units, ROI -29.3%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+123 at ATL)
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 73-149 skid (-44.73 units, ROI: -20.1%).
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+123 at ATL)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-23 (+7.86 units, ROI: 19.2%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 96-180 (-63.66 units, ROI: -23.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+123 at ATL)
Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 40-76 in their last 116 tries (-20.47 units, ROI: -17.6%).
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+123 at ATL)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of 5 games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 242-159 in their last 401 tries (+37.36 units, ROI: 9.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-149 at HOU), CHICAGO CUBS (+139 at LAD)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 34-70 (-9.26 units, ROI: -8.9%) in their last 104 tries.
System Match (FADE): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR CHICAGO CUBS at LAD (+139 CURRENTLY)
Winning Streak Betting System #8:
Teams on 5+ game winning streaks but playing as large underdogs (+137 or more) have had their totals go Over at a 59-38-5 (60.8%) rate since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-LAD (o/u at 9)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 148-146 (-58.62 units, ROI: -19.9%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (+139 at LAD)
Winning Streak Betting System #12:
Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won 9 games in a row or more, the lowest-priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks of 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 42-23 (+20.15 units, ROI: 31%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+139 at LAD)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEATTLE -149 (+23 diff), PITTSBURGH -126 (+22), TEXAS -149 (+18)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIN-TB OVER 7.5 (+0.5), WSH-CWS OVER 9 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOS-BAL UNDER 9 (-0.8), PHI-ATL UNDER 9.5 (-0.7)
Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) COLORADO (10-16) at (952) NEW YORK-NL (9-16)
Trend: Over the total is 10-3-1 (+6.79 units) when Freddy Peralta’s teams are -180 favorites or higher since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): COL-NYM (o/u at 7.5)
(955) PITTSBURGH (14-11) at (956) MILWAUKEE (13-11)
Trend: PIT is 13-3 (+9.24 units) as small favorite/pick ‘em (-136 to -110 line range) with starter Paul Skenes since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-126 at MIL)
(969) ATHLETICS (13-12) at (970) TEXAS (13-12)
Trend: Luis Severino’s teams are 18-39 (-17.37 units) as underdogs when he starts in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+123 at TEX)
(973) DETROIT (14-12) at (974) CINCINNATI (16-9)
Trend: Framber Valdez was 8-1 (+7.50 units) on the road against NL teams with a > 55% win pct in the last 6+ seasons with Houston
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-131 at CIN)
(977) SEATTLE (11-15) at (978) ST LOUIS (14-10)
Trend: SEA is 21-10 (+5.24 units) as a road favorite of -125 or higher with George Kirby in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-149 at STL)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trend
Series #28: NY Yankees at Houston, Fri 4/24-Sun 4/26
Trend: The YANKEES are on a 12-4 (75%, +8.11 units) run versus Houston.
– The ROI on this trend is 50.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-149 at HOU)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): CINCINNATI, MINNESOTA, LA ANGELS, ST LOUIS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, ST LOUIS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, CHICAGO WHITE SOX
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
– Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, BALTIMORE, NY METS, ATLANTA, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, TEXAS, ST LOUIS, LA DODGERS
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
COLORADO
Momentum after series vs. SAN DIEGO: 18-18 (50%) +5.45 units, ROI: 15.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+179 at NYM)
NY YANKEES
Letdown after series vs. BOSTON: 19-18 (51.4%) -12.26 units, ROI: -33.1%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-149 at HOU)
WASHINGTON
Letdown after series vs. ATLANTA: 10-25 (28.6%) -17.42 units, ROI: -49.8%
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+104 at CWS)
The post Steve Makinen’s MLB Picks from Betting Splits and Systems for Friday, April 24 appeared first on VSiN.
Leave A Comment