MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, April 25.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.

12:05 PM Eastern

Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles

Red Sox starting pitcher Garrett Crochet has struggled to a 7.88 ERA this season, allowing at least five runs in three of his past four starts, but his 4.98 fielding independent with 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings points toward improvement. He also posted a 2.59 ERA with 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings last season. Orioles starting pitcher Trevor Rogers has had his own recent struggles, allowing 10 total runs and posting a 4.08 ERA this season after registering a 1.81 ERA with 0.5 home runs and 2.4 walks per nine innings last season. The bullpens are comparable this season, with the Orioles 10th in ERA at 3.69 and the Red Sox 12th at 3.72, but Boston retains key pieces from a unit that ranked second in ERA last season at 3.41, while Baltimore was 25th at 4.57.

Pick: Red Sox Moneyline +100 and Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -138 and Total 7.2

4:10 PM Eastern

Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets

Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga has had a rough start to the season with an 8.83 ERA, allowing 2.1 home runs and 5.2 walks per nine innings, but facing a Rockies lineup that ranked last in road scoring last season with 2.8 runs per game could help him regain his 2025 form when he posted a 3.02 ERA. The Mets offense should also benefit from the return of Juan Soto, as the team ranked ninth in scoring last season with over 4.7 runs per game but entered Friday 29th with just 3.5 runs per game. They face Rockies starting pitcher José Quintana, who owns a 6.23 ERA and 7.61 fielding independent with 2.1 home runs and 6.2 walks per nine innings.

Pick: Mets -1.5 +108
Greg’s Handicap: Mets -1.5 -116

Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox

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Nationals starting pitcher Jake Irvin had a 5.70 ERA with 1.9 home runs per nine innings allowed last season and is continuing those struggles this season with a 6.00 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 4.1 walks per nine innings allowed. White Sox starting pitcher Noah Schultz is making just his third career start, posting a 3.86 ERA, but his 4.8 walks per nine innings could lead to an early exit. Both bullpens are shaky, with the White Sox ranking 27th in ERA and the Nationals 26th at 5.41, while the Nationals offense ranks third in scoring with over 5.5 runs per game.

Pick: Nationals vs. White Sox Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.7

Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Twins starting pitcher Bailey Ober is coming off a season in which he posted a 5.10 ERA with 1.8 home runs per nine innings allowed, and while his 4.15 ERA this season is more respectable, his walk rate has risen to a career-high 3.1 per nine innings. Rays starting pitcher Shane McClanahan is returning after missing the entire 2024 and 2025 seasons, and while his 5.00 ERA and 5.5 walks per nine innings are not ideal, his 3.75 fielding independent with 0.5 home runs per nine innings allowed suggests improvement. He is backed by a Rays lineup that ranks 11th in scoring with 4.8 runs per game, while the Twins bullpen ranks 23rd in ERA at 4.84.

Pick: Rays Moneyline -126
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -149

6:05 PM Eastern

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks will have the last at-bats in this neutral-site game in Mexico City, which features a ballpark factor that boosts offense more than any MLB park. Padres starting pitcher Germán Márquez owns a respectable 3.86 ERA this season, but allowing 2.4 home runs per nine innings along with a 5.99 fielding independent points toward regression. Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zac Gallen has a 3.45 ERA with 0.7 home runs and 2.5 walks per nine innings allowed and faces a Padres offense that ranks 21st in road scoring with 3.9 runs per game.

Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline -112
Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -134

7:10 PM Eastern

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Brewers starting pitcher Jacob Misiorowski has generated plenty of strikeouts this season, recording 14.2 per nine innings with a 3.04 ERA, which has helped mask 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings. The Pirates entered the series eighth in scoring with 4.9 runs per game, but that drops to 4.25 runs per game on the road. Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller has a 2.79 ERA but is pitching to a lot of contact with just 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings, while the Brewers rank third in home scoring with 5.5 runs per game.

Pick: Brewers Moneyline -130
Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -162

7:15 PM Eastern

Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds

Tigers starting pitcher Jack Flaherty has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his first five starts this season, posting a 3.47 ERA with just 0.4 home runs allowed per nine innings. While his 7.7 walks per nine innings is a concern, that should normalize after he posted 3.3 walks per nine innings last season. He faces a Reds lineup that ranks 25th in home scoring with 3.5 runs per game. Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer has a 5.32 ERA this season, but his 4.58 fielding independent with 1.1 home runs and 2.7 walks per nine innings allowed points toward improvement, and the Reds bullpen has the best ERA in the league at 2.57.

Pick: Tigers Moneyline -105 and Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -116 and Total 8.6

Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodgers starting pitcher Roki Sasaki has struggled with a 6.11 ERA, allowing two home runs and 6.1 walks per nine innings, but he is supported by an offense that entered the series fourth in the league in scoring with nearly 5.5 runs per game. Cubs starting pitcher Colin Rea has a 3.00 ERA with three runs or fewer allowed in every appearance this season but is generating just 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings and is backed by a Cubs bullpen that has several pitchers on the injured list, which could cause its current 3.54 ERA to rise.

Pick: Dodgers Run Line -1.5 +130
Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -1.5 -104

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