The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, April 27, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: Underdogs are on a 27-13 (67.5%, +21.54 units) run in the Toronto-Boston AL East rivalry.
– The ROI on this trend is 53.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+113 at TOR)

Trend: SD is 14-3 (+10.69 units) against non-divisional teams within the -200 to +110 line range with starter Randy Vasquez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-115 vs CHC)

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 136-175 for -36.35 units and an ROI of -11.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-102 vs LAA)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a strong 60-37 start for +9.47 units and an ROI of +9.8%.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-136 vs TB)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 14-20 for -7.56 units and an ROI of -22.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-136 vs STL), MIAMI (+248 at LAD)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a 55-35 start for +3.10 units and an ROI of 3.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+113 at TOR), LA DODGERS (-314 vs MIA)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 27-34 for +7.98 units. I don’t expect this to last long.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+109 vs SEA)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 20-12 but for -10.30 units so far. Be cautious with this one.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (-314 vs MIA)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a solid start, 55-60 for +0.80 units (0.7% ROI).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+113 at TOR), TEXAS (+139 vs NYY)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 24-36 start for -8.76 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 8-16 for -7.54 units and an ROI of -31.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – TORONTO (-136 vs BOS)
3+ games – TAMPA BAY (+113 at CLE)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and the overall season record is now 27-37 for -6.65 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+113 at PIT), MINNESOTA (+109 vs SEA)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 16-19 for -9.92 units.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA ANGELS (-118 at CWS)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 451-365 for +30.78 units and an ROI of 3.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+113 at CLE), SEATTLE (-131 at MIN)

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 220-163 for +21.22 units and an ROI of 5.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-118 at CWS)
*WATCH FOR SEATTLE at MIN (-131 CURRENTLY)*

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 136-175 for -36.35 units and an ROI of -11.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-102 vs LAA)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 382-325 but for -78.78 units and an ROI of -11.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-136 vs STL), CLEVELAND (-136 vs TB), SAN DIEGO (-115 vs CHC)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2025-1918 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -267.47 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (-118 at CWS)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2027-2589 (43.9%) for -263.03 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+113 at PIT), CHICAGO CUBS (-105 at SD)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4104-3565 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -515.26 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (-115 vs CHC), LA DODGERS (-314 vs MIA)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 609-503 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +31.27 units, for an ROI of 2.8%.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-102 vs LAA)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 483-547 SU but for +73.56 units (ROI: 7.1%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 165-176 SU for +39.39 units in the last 341 divisional games).
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+113 at PIT)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 282-298 run (+6.27 units, ROI: 1.1%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+113 at PIT), MINNESOTA (+109 vs SEA)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: MIAMI +248 (+45 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH -136 (+25 diff), TORONTO -136 (+15)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOS-TOR OVER 7 (+0.5), CHC-SD OVER 7.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: MIA-LAD UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(903) CHICAGO-NL (17-11) at (904) SAN DIEGO (18-9)
Trend: SD is 14-3 (+10.69 units) against non-divisional teams within the -200 to +110 line range with starter Randy Vasquez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-115 vs CHC)

(905) MIAMI (13-15) at (906) LOS ANGELES-NL (19-9)
Trend: Chris Paddack’s teams are 3-12 (-8.17 units) as a +105 or more road underdog since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+248 at LAD)

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(909) BOSTON (11-17) at (910) TORONTO (12-15)
Trend: Ranger Suarez’s teams are 19-10 (+9.11 units) in line range -115 to +115 in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+113 at TOR)
Trend: Dylan Cease is 8-9 (-6.96 units) as a home night favorite since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-136 vs BOS)

(911) SEATTLE (14-15) at (912) MINNESOTA (12-16)
Trend: Under the total is 11-4-1 (+6.85 units) when Luis Castillo faces teams with a <= 45% win pct since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-MIN (o/u at 9)

(915) NEW YORK-AL (18-10) at (916) TEXAS (14-14)
Trend: TEX is 9-17 (-8.10 units) when facing teams with a >= 0.500 win pct with starter Jack Leiter since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+139 vs NYY)

Top Head-to-Head Series Trend

Series #30: Boston at Toronto, Mon 4/27-Wed 4/29
Trend: Underdogs are on a 27-13 (67.5%, +21.54 units) run in the Toronto-Boston AL East rivalry.
– The ROI on this trend is 53.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+113 at TOR)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:15 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): CHICAGO CUBS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
– Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and an ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, PITTSBURGH, TORONTO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAA-CWS

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple tomorrow, April 28)

The post Steve Makinen’s MLB Picks from Betting Splits and Systems for Monday, April 27 appeared first on VSiN.