Cadillac Championship Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds

Matt Fitzpatrick hit a 35-yard bunker shot to 14 inches and brother Alex tapped in for birdie to win the Zurich Classic of New Orleans team event at 31 under par by one stroke over Hayden Springer/Alex Smalley and Kristoffer Reitan/Kris Ventura.

The Fitzpatricks were pre-tournament favorites at 10-1, and older brother Matt won for the second consecutive week on tour, having been victorious the week prior at the RBC Heritage. Meanwhile, younger brother Alex earns his PGA Tour card with a two-year exemption.

Matt will take the week off, while Alex (150-1) earns a spot in a Signature Event at the Cadillac Championship in Miami.

The Cadillac Championship and its host course, Trump National Doral, return to the PGA Tour for the first time since 2016 as a new Signature Event.

Despite the absence of Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick, Ludvig Åberg, Robert MacIntyre, and Xander Schauffele in Miami this week, the Cadillac Championship will have a strong field headed up by World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (3-1).

Players champion Cameron Young follows at +1250, while Collin Morikawa is at +1950.

The 25-1 price point is crowded with Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Chris Gotterup, Sam Burns and Patrick Cantlay.

In the 30-40-1 range are Si Woo Kim. Hideki Matsuyama, Jake Knapp, Maverick McNealy, Viktor Hovland and Min Woo Lee.

Very few players in this week’s field have played in a competition at Doral, but Adam Scott (33-1) in 2016 and Justin Rose (40-1) in 2012 are both former champions here in the old WGC-Cadillac Championship event.

The Event

First opened in 1962, the Blue Monster, one of four courses on the property, built its profile by hosting the Doral Open and later the World Golf Championships-Cadillac Championship from 2007 to 2016. More recently, it hosted the final event of the inaugural LIV Golf Invitational Series in 2022 and a regular-season event in each of the subsequent three seasons. In 2012, the Doral Resort and Spa, along with the four courses, were purchased by The Trump Organization.

Many of the game’s biggest names boast victories at Doral, including Jack Nicklaus (1972, 1975), Lee Trevino (1973), Raymond Floyd (1980, 1981, 1992), Greg Norman (1990, 1993, 1996), Ernie Els (2002, 2010), Phil Mickelson (2009), Dustin Johnson (2015), along with several other major champions. Tiger Woods won here four times — 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2013.

As a newly minted Signature Event, the Cadillac Championship entails a $20 million purse and is a no-cut event.

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The Field

72 players are in this week’s Cadillac Championship field.

The Course

The Blue Monster course at Doral, located just five miles west of the Miami International Airport and 13 miles west of Downtown Miami, was first designed in 1962 by Dick Wilson, who also designed Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Invitational), Cog Hill #4, Laurel Valley and The Greenbrier Lakeside, among other notable courses. After several renovations over the years, Gil Hanse, who has been the go-to for many redesigns in recent years, was hired in 2014 to restore the course closer to the original Wilson design. The result was a longer (7,739 yards) and more difficult course. The two LIV events played here in 2024 and 2025 yielded winning scores of 205 (-11) and 210 (-6) in 54-hole events. In the last three years (2014-2016) that Doral was a stop on the PGA Tour, the winning scores were 284 (-4), 279 (-9), and 276 (-12) over 72 holes, so it played substantially more difficult than the high teens to 20-under par type scores that occurred in the several years before the Hanse redesign.

Amongst the changes on the par-72, 7,739-yard flat terrain layout that Hanse brought were the reshaping of fairways (36 yards average width) to create more angles instead of just attacking with straight-ahead power.

Hanse also expanded and repositioned water hazards (10 water danger holes) to put them more in play. The Bermuda rough was thickened to 2.5 inches and turf is firmer Bermuda throughout the course.

Furthermore, Hanse recontoured every green complex, making them bigger (7,200 square feet average; 12 average speed on the stimpmeter), with more undulations, plus having tightly mown runoff areas to challenge players’ short games. The bunkers (110 on course — second most on tour) were rebuilt with sharper edges to challenge the players even more around the greens.

Comparable courses include Bay Hill and PGA National (the East course is also a Wilson design), The Concession, Quail Hollow (where players will be next week), Torrey Pines South (the only course on this year’s PGA Tour schedule that is longer than Doral) and other recent PGA Championship (two weeks away) courses like Oak Hill and Bethpage Black.

Weather

The AccuWeather forecast shows hot and humid conditions all week in Miami, which is hosting both the Cadillac Championship and the Formula One Miami Grand Prix this weekend.

Statistical Analysis

The Blue Monster Course at Doral has not been featured on the PGA Tour for a decade, so we do not have any extensive data to model, but we can look at the course dimensions to determine what is needed for success here.

Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green gives the most general outlook for ball striking.

Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green — Average Per Round (2026 PGA Tour season)

Collin Morikawa 1.786
Si Woo Kim 1.605
Scottie Scheffler 1.443
Cameron Young 1.296
Tommy Fleetwood 1.274
Chris Gotterup 1.185
Min Woo Lee 1.145
Adam Scott 1.124
Ryo Hisatsune 1.116
Patrick Cantlay 1.074
Nicolai Højgaard 1.003
Hideki Matsuyama 0.926
Keith Mitchell 0.880
J.J. Spaun 0.876
Kurt Kitayama 0.808
Austin Smotherman 0.746
Sepp Straka 0.731
Akshay Bhatia 0.722
Ryan Gerard 0.716
Jake Knapp 0.712

The greens are large at Doral, so it is not enough just for players to hit greens in regulation.

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2026 PGA Tour season)

Collin Morikawa 1.136
Adam Scott 0.912
Si Woo Kim 0.817
Daniel Berger 0.816
Justin Rose 0.755
Austin Smotherman 0.740
Akshay Bhatia 0.720
Kurt Kitayama 0.667
Ryan Gerard 0.665
J.J. Spaun 0.638
Hideki Matsuyama 0.635
Nicolai Højgaard 0.594
Sepp Straka 0.538
Cameron Young 0.521
Jacob Bridgeman 0.490
Ryo Hisatsune 0.483
Corey Conners 0.464
Pierceson Coody 0.451
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 0.449
Jake Knapp 0.448

With the Blue Monster being almost 7,800 yards, players will have several second shots from 200 yards or more.

Proximity Gained 200+ — Average Feet Per Round (Last 36 rounds)

Scottie Scheffler 30.02
Ryan Gerard 26.35
Viktor Hovland 23.44
Hideki Matsuyama 22.45
Joel Dahmen 18.90
Gary Woodland 15.07
Russell Henley 14.84
Jordan Smith 14.60
Kurt Kitayama 14.16
Nicolai Højgaard 12.25
Tom Hoge 9.75
Sam Stevens 9.38
Tommy Fleetwood 8.97
Michael Kim 8.79
Akshay Bhatia 8.75
Nick Taylor 8.70
Ricky Castillo 8.32
Adam Scott 7.50
Andrew Novak 6.58
Jake Knapp 6.07

While the Blue Monster cannot be solely conquered with power, length off the tee certainly matters at a super long course like this one.

Average Driving Distance (2026 PGA Tour season)

Aldrich Potgieter 325.2
Gary Woodland 323.5
Chris Gotterup 320.1
Jake Knapp 319.8
Nicolai Højgaard 317.1
Min Woo Lee 316.1
Pierceson Coody 314.8
Adam Scott 313.0
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 312.5
Jordan Smith 312.3
Sam Burns 312.2
Ryan Fox 311.7
Keith Mitchell 311.7
Kurt Kitayama 311.3
Taylor Pendrith 311.0
Cameron Young 311.0
Scottie Scheffler 309.7
Ricky Castillo 307.7
Jordan Spieth 307.7
Sam Stevens 307.7

The greens are larger, but also more undulating. The tightly mown runoff areas that place a premium on the short game. Surrounding bunkers have sharper edges and have more difficult positioning. Players will have to be creative around the greens.

Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (2026 PGA Tour season)

Scottie Scheffler 0.672
Tommy Fleetwood 0.601
Ben Griffin 0.579
Nick Taylor 0.454
Andrew Putnam 0.437
Harry Hall 0.435
Jason Day 0.423
Sungjae Im 0.415
David Lipsky 0.400
Hideki Matsuyama 0.390
Sahith Theegala 0.382
Patrick Cantlay 0.376
Matt Wallace 0.358
Keegan Bradley 0.351
Viktor Hovland 0.317
Min Woo Lee 0.311
Alex Noren 0.289
Russell Henley 0.244
Maverick McNealy 0.244
Justin Thomas 0.221

Scrambling Percentage (2026 PGA Tour season)

Russell Henley 73.06%
Andrew Putnam 69.90
Hideki Matsuyama 69.77
Scottie Scheffler 69.41
Jason Day 69.40
Patrick Cantlay 67.80
Rickie Fowler 67.72
Cameron Young 67.61
Matt Wallace 67.22
Sahith Theegala 67.06
Harris English 66.95
Jordan Spieth 66.52
Ryan Fox 66.45
Ricky Castillo 66.39
Denny McCarthy 66.27
Nick Taylor 66.27
Bud Cauley 66.10
Si Woo Kim 65.98
Tommy Fleetwood 65.90
Nicolai Højgaard 65.85

The Blue Monster proved to be more difficult after the Hanse redesign. Even with the generous fairways, there are plenty of hazards on this layout, plus tricky greens, so bogeys can come in bunches.

Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2026 PGA Tour season)

Scottie Scheffler 10.07% (percentage of time player makes bogey or worse)
Russell Henley 10.59
Jason Day 11.11
Cameron Young 11.46
Si Woo Kim 11.62
Patrick Cantlay 11.63
Rickie Fowler 11.63
Jacob Bridgeman 12.50
Hideki Matsuyama 12.50
Kurt Kitayama 12.61
Collin Morikawa 12.6
Adam Scott 12.85
Shane Lowry 12.90
Nick Taylor 12.96
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 12.96
Jordan Spieth 13.01
Justin Rose 13.04
Sahith Theegala 13.10
Harris English 13.16
Joel Dahmen 13.19

Strokes Gained: Putting — Bermuda Greens (Last 36 rounds)

Jacob Bridgeman 32.5
Harry Hall 31.9
Sam Burns 26.5
Max Greyserman 21.9
Maverick McNealy 20.1
Gary Woodland 19.9
Scottie Scheffler 18.9
Jason Day 18.5
Denny McCarthy 18.4
Cameron Young 17.6
Michael Kim 16.2
Ben Griffin 15.7
Matt McCarty 14.4
Rickie Fowler 13.6
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 12.8
Alex Noren 12.7
Akshay Bhatia 11.4
Jake Knapp 11.3
Russell Henley 11.2
Sepp Straka 11.2

The greens are large (7,200 square feet average) here, so lag putting will be important and there is high potential for three-putting.

3-Putt Avoidance (2026 PGA Tour season)

Jacob Bridgeman 0.69% (percentage of time player three-putts or worse)
Sungjae Im 0.83
Ricky Castillp 1.39
Rickie Fowler 1.39
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 1.42
Scottie Scheffler 1.56
Matt McCarty 1.59
J.T. Poston 1.67
Nico Echavarria 1.68
Shane Lowry 1.79
Jake Knapp 1.80
Ryan Gerard 1.81
Sam Burns 1.85
Lucas Glover 1.85
Sam Stevens 1.85
Nick Taylor 1.85
Si Woo Kim 1.89
Harris English 1.90
Jason Day 1.91
Harry Hall 1.91

Selections

Cameron Young (13-1, DraftKings)

Young has already won this season on a water-heavy course in Florida, having been the victor in The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass last month.

He also finished third in the Masters and actually gained the lead in the final round despite starting 4 over after 11 holes on Thursday. Furthermore, he finished T-3 at the Dick Wilson-designed Bay Hill plus a T-7 at the Genesis Invitational. So he has been a factor in nearly every Signature Event/major thus far this season.

Young ranks sixth on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green. He also ranks second (only behind Matt Fitzpatrick) for Total Driving and is third for Ball Striking (only behind Fitzpatrick and Scottie Scheffler), so he checks all the statistical boxes here.

Jake Knapp (33-1, Circa Sports)

Knapp looks like a player on the verge of winning a big event with finishes of 11th or better in seven of nine events in 2026.

He ranks sixth for Driving Distance, seventh for Strokes Gained: Putting and eighth for Strokes Gained: Total.

With a pair of top-5s at Torrey Pines and a victory at Vidanta Vallarta, Knapp has numerous contending results on long golf courses.

Viktor Hovland (40-1, Circa Sports)

Hovland has had a bit of an inconsistent season with just one top-10 finish, but he has shown some signs of returning to form and putting it all together with a final round of 67 at the Masters and opening the RBC Heritage shooting 64-65.

The Norwegian has runner-up finishes at Bay Hill and Torrey Pines, plus a win last year in the Valspar at PGA National, so he has plenty of success on correlated courses.

Kurt Kitayama (50-1, BetMGM)

Kitayama won his first PGA Tour event in 2023 by holding off Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, etc. to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill in very tough conditions.

He was runner-up at the Genesis Invitational and finished inside the top 10 in the RBC Heritage last time out.

Kitayama ranks 6th on the PGA Tour for Ball Striking and 16th for Total Driving, where he has always had the distance, but has made substantial improvements with accuracy this season.

Rickie Fowler (65-1, Circa Sports)

This time last year, Fowler barely ranked inside the OWGR top 125 and missed the U.S. Open. After missing the Masters earlier this month, Fowler is looking to lock up his spots in the U.S. Open and British Open. He ranks No. 56 and needs to stay in the top 60.

Fowler has made a slow and steady climb up the rankings and has been playing more consistent golf. He finished inside the top 10 in two of his last five events (Arnold Palmer Invitational and RBC Heritage). Plus, he ended his 2025 season with top-10s at the FedEx St. Jude and BMW Championships.

He is also one of just 17 players in this field with tournament experience on this layout, and he finished 12th (2015) and 8th (2016) on the Doral redesign.

Placement markets, matchups, and/or other bets will be up Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks

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