Today we kick off a new week with a 12 game MLB to slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

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6:40 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays (-125, 8)

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The Blue Jays (16-18) just split a four-game series against the Twins, losing 4-3 yesterday as a -110 road pick’em. On the other hand, the Rays (21-12) just swept the Giants, winning 2-1 in extra innings yesterday as -125 home favorites.

In tonight’s series opener, the Blue Jays hand the ball to lefty Eric Lauer (1-3, 6.00 ERA) and the Rays counter with righty Nick Martinez (2-1, 1.70 ERA).

This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -115 home favorite and Toronto a -105 road dog.

Sharps have pounced on the Rays laying short chalk at home, pushing Tampa Bay up from -115 to -125.

At DraftKings, the Rays are taking in 64% of moneyline bets and 84% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Tampa Bay is taking in 78% of moneyline bets and 89% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.

Tampa Bay has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.

Toronto is 1-4 in Lauer’s last five starts. He is 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Rays are 5-1 in Martinez’s six starts this season. He is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA at home.

The Rays are 11-4 at home and 11-6 in night games. The Blue Jays are 6-10 on the road and 8-9 in night games.

6:40 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins (-110, 8.5)

The Phillies (14-20) have taken two of the first three games in this four-game series, winning 7-2 yesterday as -145 road favorites.

In tonight’s series finale, the Phillies send out righty Aaron Nola (1-3, 6.03 ERA) and the Marlins (16-18) rebuttal with fellow righty Janson Junk (2-2, 3.00 ERA).

This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -115 road favorite and Miami a -105 home dog.

The public is hammering the Phillies at a cheap chalk price, with 66% of moneyline bets at DraftKings coming down in Philadelphia’s favor.

However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Philadelphia fall from -115 to -110. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Miami, as the line has moved in their direction (-105 to -110) despite being the unpopular play. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to pick’em” reverse line movement on the Fish.

At DraftKings, Miami is taking in only 34% of moneyline bets but 60% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Miami is receiving 64% of moneyline bets and 73% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Marlins at home.

Miami has the better bats, hitting .252 with a .332 OBP and 146 runs scored compared to Philadelphia hitting .225 with a .299 OBP and 131 runs scored.

The Phillies are 1-5 in Nola’s six starts this season. He has a 6.33 ERA on the road compared to 5.40 at home. Meanwhile, Junk has a 2.86 ERA at home compared to 3.27 on the road.

Miami is hitting .259 against righties (7th) compared to Philadelphia hitting .242 (16th).

The Marlins at 11-8 at home. The Phillies are 6-10 on the road.

9:40 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves at Seattle Mariners (-145, 7.5)

The Braves (25-10) just swept the Rockies, winning 11-6 yesterday as -145 road favorites. On the flip side, the Mariners (16-19) just got swept by the Royals, losing 4-1 yesterday as -115 home favorites.

In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Braves go with righty JR Ritchie (1-0, 2.92 ERA) and the Mariners tap fellow righty Logan Gilbert (1-3, 4.03 ERA).

This line opened with Seattle listed as a -165 home favorite and Atlanta a +145 road dog.

Sharps have gotten down hard on the Braves as a rare plus-money dog, dropping the line away from Seattle (-165 to -145) and toward Atlanta (+145 to +125).

At DraftKings, the Braves are taking in 59% of moneyline bets and a whopping 90% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split indicating slight support but also heavy sharp action in their favor.

Sweet spot dogs between +120 and +150, like the Braves here, are 79-83 (49%) this season but have produced a 14% ROI due to the plus money payouts. If they are also coming off a win, they improve to 40-34 (54%) with a 26% ROI.

Atlanta has a sizable edge at the plate, hitting .276 with a .342 OBP and 205 runs scored compared to Seattle hitting .229 with a .318 OBP and only 143 runs scored.

Gilbert has a 4.67 ERA at home compared to 2.45 on the road. Ritchie, a 2022 first round pick, is making his 3rd career start and has given up 2 earned runs in each of his first two starts with Atlanta going 2-0.

The Braves are 13-4 on the road and 20-6 at night. The Mariners are 10-10 at home and 7-15 at night.

The post Top Picks from the MLB Betting Splits for Monday May 4th appeared first on VSiN.