The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, May 4, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 413-358 record for +51.80 units and an ROI of 6.7% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+123 at SEA)
Trend: PHI is 4-13 (-8.90 units) in road Divisional games as a -110 or worse line with starter Aaron Nola in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-110 at MIA)
*CHECK FIRST BULLPEN SYSTEM BELOW*
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a 67-46 start for +3.22 units and an ROI of +2.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-143 at COL), MILWAUKEE (-118 at STL)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 4-5 for -1.85 units and an ROI of -20.6%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): LA ANGELS (-156 vs CWS)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 16-30 for -17.54 units and an ROI of -38.1%.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+113 vs SD)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a 67-44 start for +0.46 units and an ROI of +0.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-199 vs BOS), NY YANKEES (-219 vs BAL), LA DODGERS (-199 at HOU), SEATTLE (-143 vs ATL)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 33-43 for +6.60 units. I don’t expect this to last long.
System Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (-102 vs MIL)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units. The 2026 record so far is 13-8 for -5.64 units. Over the last two-plus weeks, this angle has lost -11.02 units and is trending normally again.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-199 vs BOS), CHICAGO CUBS (-207 vs CIN)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 23-14 but for -12.64 units so far. Be cautious with this one.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-219 vs BAL), LA DODGERS (-199 at HOU)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slow start, 62-77 for -10.73 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-110 vs PHI), CLEVELAND (+102 at KC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+129 at LAA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 33-42 start for -5.64 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 17-23 for -3.09 units and an ROI of -7.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – HOUSTON (+163 vs LAD)
3-games – KANSAS CITY (-122 vs CLE)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and the overall season record is now 33-41 for -3.35 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+119 vs NYM), BALTIMORE (+179 at NYY), CINCINNATI (+169 at CHC), SAN FRANCISCO (+113 vs SD)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 456-367 for +34.42 units and an ROI of 4.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-126 vs TOR), KANSAS CITY (-122 vs CLE), CHICAGO CUBS (-207 vs CIN), ATLANTA (+123 at SEA)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 222-165 for +20.70 units and an ROI of 5.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-118 at STL)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 699-909 but for +34.97 units and an ROI of 2.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+179 at NYY)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 137-176 for -36.29 units and an ROI of -11.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+119 vs NYM), ST LOUIS (-102 vs MIL)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 387-330 but for -80.14 units and an ROI of -11.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-122 vs CLE)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 161-66 for +13.11 units and an ROI of 5.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-219 vs BAL)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored 6 or more runs in a win boast a solid 413-358 record for +51.80 units and an ROI of 6.7% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+123 at SEA)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 650-761 record but for +16.57 units and an ROI of 1.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+179 at NYY)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2034-1928 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -268.50 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-219 vs BAL), ATLANTA (+123 at SEA)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2037-2608 (43.9%) for -271.76 units and an ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+169 at CHC), BOSTON (+163 at DET), MILWAUKEE (-118 at STL), CLEVELAND (+102 at KC)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4127-3581 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -513.22 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-219 vs BAL), CHICAGO CUBS (-207 vs CIN), COLORADO (+119 vs NYM), DETROIT (-199 vs BOS)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 613-505 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +30.79 units, for an ROI of 2.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-126 vs TOR), LA ANGELS (-156 vs CWS), ST LOUIS (-102 vs MIL), SEATTLE (-149 vs ATL)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 185-219 SU record for +39.07 units and an ROI of 9.7% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+179 at NYY)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:
MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 72-43 SU for +13.53 units (ROI: 11.8%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-143 at COL)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 216-250 SU but for +43.95 units (ROI: 9.4%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+119 vs NYM), CINCINNATI (+169 at CHC)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 490-563 SU but for +66.01 units (ROI: 6.3%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 166-180 SU for +36.78 units in L346 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+104 at TB), CLEVELAND (+102 at KC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+129 at LAA)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 286-300 run (+8.16 units, ROI: 1.4%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+113 vs SD)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 153-149 (-56.16 units, ROI: -18.6%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-207 vs CIN)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TAMPA BAY -126 (+18 diff), SEATTLE -143 (+16), LA DODGERS -199 (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CWS-LAA OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CIN-CHC UNDER 11.5 (-0.7), NYM-COL UNDER 11 (-0.7), CLE-KC UNDER 9 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) PHILADELPHIA (14-20) at (952) MIAMI (16-18)
Trend: PHI is 4-13 (-8.90 units) in road Divisional games as a -110 or worse line with starter Aaron Nola in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-110 at MIA)
(953) CINCINNATI (20-14) at (954) CHICAGO-NL (22-12)
Trend: Edward Cabrera’s teams are 7-13 (-4.73 units) against opponents with a >57% win pct in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-207 vs CIN)
(961) BOSTON (13-21) at (962) DETROIT (18-17)
Trend: Tarik Skubal is 22-11 (+3.08 units) in his last 33 night game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-199 vs BOS)
(963) TORONTO (16-18) at (964) TAMPA BAY (21-12)
Trend: TB is 6-1 (+5.72 units) against LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-126 vs TOR)
(965) BALTIMORE (15-19) at (966) NEW YORK-AL (23-11)
Trend: Over the total is 8-2-1 (+5.80 units) when BAL is an ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BAL-NYY (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: Tampa Bay was 12-3 (+9.97 units) in the last 15 games versus AL East divisional opponents with starter Shane Baz
Trend Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): BALTIMORE (+179 at NYY)
(967) CLEVELAND (18-17) at (968) KANSAS CITY (15-19)
Trend: KC is 11-3 (+8.33 units) in home divisional games with starter Michael Wacha since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-122 vs CLE)
(969) CHICAGO-AL (16-18) at (970) LOS ANGELES-AL (13-22)
Trend: LAA is 1-9 (-11.37 units) with starter Jose Soriano in home games against non-divisional opponents with a losing record since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-156 vs CWS)
(973) ATLANTA (25-10) at (974) SEATTLE (16-19)
Trend: ATL is 13-4 (+11.55 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+1.5 at SEA)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): COLORADO, SAN FRANCISCO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS, ATLANTA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, LA ANGELS
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY
The post Steve Makinen’s MLB Picks from Betting Splits and Systems for Monday, May 4 appeared first on VSiN.
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