The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, May 5, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Erick Fedde’s teams are 3-17 (-13.80 units) in his last 20 starts as a road underdog
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-105 at LAA)
* Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 491-564 SU but for +66.34 units (ROI: 6.3%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 166-181 SU for +35.78 units in the last 347 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+104 at NYY), TORONTO (+109 at TB), BALTIMORE (+119 at MIA), CINCINNATI (+141 at CHC), ATLANTA (+113 at SEA), SAN DIEGO (+109 at SF)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 138-177 for -36.24 units and a ROI of -11.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-105 vs. MIN)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse recordIn the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%. The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are off to a modest 68-48 start for +2.00 units and an ROI of +1.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-194 vs. ATH), TEXAS (+104 at NYY), NY METS (-163 at COL), SEATTLE (-131 vs. ATL)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another play-against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 18-31 for -16.28 units and an ROI of -33.2.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-108 at STL), SAN DIEGO (+109 at SF)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a slow 69-45 start for +2.52 units and an ROI of 2.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-156 vs. BOS), TEXAS (+104 at NYY), CLEVELAND (-118 at KC), LA DODGERS (-232 vs. HOU), NY METS (-163 at COL), SEATTLE (-131 vs. ATL), SAN FRANCISCO (-131 vs. SD)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle. For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 34-43 for +7.93 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (-112 vs. MIL), COLORADO (+135 vs. NYM)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%. The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units. The 2026 record so far is 15-8 for -3.64 units. Over the last three weeks, this angle has lost -9.02 units and is trending normally again.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-194 vs. ATH)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponentA 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a 3-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 24-14 but for -11.64 units so far. Be cautious with this one.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-232 at HOU)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season longPerhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce-back in 2025 with a season record of 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%. The 2026 season is off to a rocky start, 63-81 for -11.35 units.System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (-105 vs. MIN), TEXAS (+104 at NYY), MILWAUKEE (-108 at STL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-105 at LAA), PITTSBURGH (+119 at AZ), SAN DIEGO (+109 at SF)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
Fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. The ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 18-22 for -0.71 units and an ROI of -1.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-126 vs. TEX), KANSAS CITY (-102 vs. CLE)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 34-44 for -5.11 units.System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (+119 at MIA), CINCINNATI (+141 at CHC), COLORADO (+135 vs. NYM), ARIZONA (-143 vs. PIT)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 459-368 for +36.42 units and an ROI of 4.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-126 vs. TEX), PITTSBURGH (+119 at AZ)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 223-167 for +19.14 units and an ROI of 4.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-115 at WSH)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 138-177 for -36.24 units and an ROI of -11.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-105 vs. MIN)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 388-330 but for -79.14 units and an ROI of -11% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-143 vs. PIT)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 413-359 record for +50.80 units and an ROI of 6.6% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+159 at PHI)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next gameSince 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 2,035-1,929 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -268.50 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-126 vs. TEX)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outingConsider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,038-2,611 (43.8%) for -274.04 units and a ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, TEXAS, TORONTO, BALTIMORE, CLEVELAND, SAN DIEGO
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outingGoing back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4,129-3,583 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -513.22 units and a ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, NY YANKEES, CHICAGO CUBS, KANSAS CITY, ST LOUIS, SEATTLE
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 616-506 (54.9%) record in the next game when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +32.23 units for an ROI of 2.9%.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-143 vs. BAL)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances in which they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 335-301 (52.7%) for +19.10 units and an ROI of 3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-115 vs. CWS)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:
MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 73-43 SU for +14.53 units (ROI: 12.5%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-163 at COL)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 491-564 SU but for +66.34 units (ROI: 6.3%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 166-181 SU for +35.78 units in the last 347 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+104 at NYY), TORONTO (+109 at TB), BALTIMORE (+119 at MIA), CINCINNATI (+141 at CHC), ATLANTA (+113 at SEA), SAN DIEGO (+109 at SF)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 154-149 (-55.16 units, ROI: -18.2%) in the next game since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-171 vs. CIN), NY YANKEES (-126 vs. TEX)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:System Match: HOUSTON +189 (+20 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIL-STL OVER 7.5 (+1.0), CLE-KC OVER 7.5 (+0.5), LAD-HOU OVER 8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOS-DET UNDER 8.5 (-1.0), TEX-NYY UNDER 9 (-0.9), BAL-MIA UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), ATH-PHI UNDER 9 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) CINCINNATI (20-15) at (902) CHICAGO-NL (23-12)
Trend: CIN is 8-3 (+7.89 units) as a large underdog of +129 or more with starter Andrew Abbott in the last few seasons
Trend: CIN is 8-4 (+5.26 units) on the road in divisional matchups with starter Andrew Abbott in the last few seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+141 at CHC)
(903) MILWAUKEE (18-16) at (904) ST LOUIS (21-14)Trend: STL is 5-8 (-5.52 units) as a home favorite with starter Andre Pallante since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (-112 vs. MIL)
(905) NEW YORK-NL (13-22) at (906) COLORADO (14-22)
Trend: Under the total is 13-3 (+9.70 units) in Freddy Peralta’s last 16 road game starts versus NL teams within line range of -300 to +112 since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-COL (o/u at 9.5)
(909) SAN DIEGO (20-14) at (910) SAN FRANCISCO (14-21)Trend: Walker Buehler’s teams are 38-16 (+7.40 units) against NL West competition since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+109 at SF)
Trend: SF is 18-6 (+8.87 units) at home as a favorite vs. divisional opponents with starter Logan Webb in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-131 vs. SD)
(911) BOSTON (14-21) at (912) DETROIT (18-18)Trend: DET is 11-4 (+8.94 units) on the run line in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-1.5 vs. BOS)
(913) TORONTO (16-19) at (914) TAMPA BAY (22-12)Trend: TOR is 14-17 (-10.03 units) vs. AL East foes in the last 3+ seasons with starter Kevin Gausman
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (+109 at TB)
(915) TEXAS (16-18) at (916) NEW YORK-AL (24-11)Trend: TEX is 6-12 (-7.60 units) in the last 18 night games as a -130 favorite or less (including underdog) with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+104 at NYY)
(919) CHICAGO-AL (17-18) at (920) LOS ANGELES-AL (13-23)Trend: Erick Fedde’s teams are 3-17 (-13.80 units) in his last 20 starts as a road underdog
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-105 at LAA)
Trend: Under the total is 14-5-1 (+8.45 units) when Erick Fedde is within -155 to +148 line range in night games since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-LAA (o/u at 9)
(921) ATHLETICS (18-16) at (922) PHILADELPHIA (15-20)Trend: Luis Severino’s teams are 19-39 (-16.20 units) as an underdog when he starts in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+159 at PHI)
Trend: PHI is 24-2 (+20.13 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 winning percentage with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-194 vs. ATH)
(923) BALTIMORE (15-20) at (924) MIAMI (16-19)Trend: Over the total is 9-2-1 (+6.80 units) when BAL is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BAL-MIA (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: Chris Bassitt’s teams are 16-6 (+9.07 units) when he starts vs. NL East opponents in L6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+119 at MIA)
(927) LOS ANGELES-NL (22-13) at (928) HOUSTON (14-22)
Trend: Over the total is 13-5-1 (+7.50 units) when HOU is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAD-HOU (o/u at 8.5)
(929) ATLANTA (25-11) at (930) SEATTLE (17-19)
Trend: ATL is 14-4 (+12.55 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+1.5 at SEA)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, LA DODGERS, ATLANTA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: A unique system has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, ARIZONA, SAN FRANCISCO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season and a half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nne or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-COL
Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Thursday, May 7)
The post Steve Makinen’s MLB Picks from Betting Splits and Systems for Tuesday, May 5 appeared first on VSiN.
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