MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, May 6.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.

1:10 PM Eastern

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Blue Jays starting pitcher Patrick Corbin has been a pleasant surprise thus far, posting a 3.65 ERA with 1.1 home runs and 2.6 walks per nine innings allowed, but his track record of having an ERA of 4.40 or higher in each of the past six seasons—and 5.20 or higher in four of the past five—is worrisome, while Rays starting pitcher Shane McClanahan looks like he’s back to his old self after missing the past two seasons due to injury, posting a 3.10 ERA with a 2.87 fielding independent, getting 9.3 strikeouts with 0.3 home runs per nine innings allowed and facing a Toronto lineup that is 21st in scoring with 4.1 runs per game and is dealing with a bevy of injuries.

Pick: Rays Moneyline -128
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -160

3:45 PM Eastern

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants

It has been a rough year for the Giants offense, as they entered Tuesday last in the league in scoring with 3.1 runs per game, but facing Padres starting pitcher Matt Waldron may help, as he has a 9.88 ERA with just 5.3 strikeouts and two home runs per nine innings allowed this season. While Giants starting pitcher Adrian Houser has seen his production drop off from last season—posting a 3.31 ERA with 0.7 home runs per nine innings last season to a 7.12 ERA with 1.8 home runs per nine innings allowed this season—he does have the support of a Giants bullpen that has the best ERA in the National League at 3.01.

Pick: Giants Moneyline +100
Greg’s Handicap: Giants -114

4:10 PM Eastern

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Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners

Braves starting pitcher Grant Holmes has seen his strikeout numbers dip to a career-low seven strikeouts per nine innings, which has led to a career-high 4.34 ERA thus far, but gets to pitch in one of the best ballparks in the league in terms of suppressing offense and faces a Mariners offense that entered Tuesday tied for 24th in the league in scoring with 4.1 runs per game, while Mariners starting pitcher Bryan Woo has also seen his strikeout numbers dip, as he has a career-worst 4.61 ERA with 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings, but has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five of his seven starts this season. Both starting pitchers are supported by strong bullpens, with the Mariners third in bullpen ERA at 3.12 and the Braves fourth at 3.29.

Pick: Mariners vs. Braves Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.1

6:40 PM Eastern

Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins

Orioles starting pitcher Brandon Young has struggled to a 6.14 ERA with 1.8 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings this season, but should benefit from facing a Marlins lineup that is 20th in scoring with just under 4.2 runs per game, while the Orioles offense is 25th in road scoring with 3.7 runs per game, which should benefit Marlins starting pitcher Eury Pérez, who has a 4.46 ERA with 1.5 home runs and four walks per nine innings this season but has been a significantly better pitcher at home than on the road, posting a career 2.50 ERA at home with 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed, with those numbers jumping to a 5.14 ERA with just under 1.9 home runs per nine innings allowed away from home for his career.

Pick: Marlins Moneyline -118 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -149 and Total 7.9

Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler has returned from the injured list in great form, posting a 2.45 ERA through his first two starts of the season with 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings and faces an Athletics lineup that entered Tuesday 24th in the league in road scoring with 3.8 runs per game, while the Phillies entered Tuesday 27th in overall run creation with under 3.8 runs per game and face Athletics starting pitcher Jeffrey Springs, who owns a 3.96 ERA with 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed this season, but for the second straight season has a lower ERA away from home than at home, posting a 4.87 ERA with five home runs allowed in 20 1/3 innings at home this season compared to a 2.95 ERA with one home run allowed in 18 1/3 innings away from home this season.

Pick: Athletics vs. Phillies Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.9

6:45 PM Eastern

Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals

It has been a bad start to the 2026 season for Nationals pitcher Miles Mikolas, who is expected to start but may work behind an opener, as he has done a few times this season. Mikolas has an 8.23 ERA with 2.6 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings allowed, but does enter having allowed three runs or fewer in his past five appearances, while Twins starting pitcher Bailey Ober has a solid 3.55 ERA but a career-low 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings and a career-high 3.1 walks per nine innings. He is backed by a Twins bullpen that is 28th in ERA at 5.31 and faces a Nationals offense that entered Tuesday tied for sixth in the league in scoring with over 5.1 runs per game.

Pick: Nationals Moneyline +120
Greg’s Handicap: Nationals -106

7:05 PM Eastern

Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees

Rangers starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi has struggled this season, entering Wednesday with a 4.76 ERA with two home runs per nine innings allowed, but appears to be rounding back into midseason form with two earned runs or fewer allowed in four of his past five starts and is supported by a bullpen that has the league’s lowest ERA at 2.74, while Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren is off to a great start with a 2.39 ERA, getting 11 strikeouts per nine innings with only one home run and 1.9 walks per nine innings. He faces a Rangers lineup that has been far more lethal away from home than at home, ranking 28th in overall run production entering Tuesday with just over 3.7 runs per game overall, but last in scoring at home with just under 2.7 runs per game compared to 10th in run production away from home with 4.6 runs per game.

Pick: Rangers Moneyline +170
Greg’s Handicap: Rangers +141

7:40 PM Eastern

Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals

The fences being moved in at Kauffman Stadium in the offseason has led to the Royals having large home-and-road splits on offense, with the Royals averaging just over 5.4 runs per game at home compared to just over 2.9 runs per game away from home entering the series. Starting pitcher Cole Ragans has scuffled this season with a 5.27 ERA and 6.57 fielding independent, allowing 2.8 home runs and 5.8 walks per nine innings, and is backed by a bullpen that is 27th in ERA at 4.94, while Guardians starting pitcher Joey Cantillo owns a 3.67 ERA and 4.42 fielding independent, allowing 1.3 home runs and 4.2 walks per nine innings.

Pick: Guardians vs. Royals Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2

9:40 PM Eastern

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes has a 3.18 ERA overall this season, but if you subtract his Opening Day start—where the Pirates’ fielding let him down—it drops to a 1.89 ERA with 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings since April 1, with zero or one run allowed in five of his past six starts, while Diamondbacks starting pitcher Michael Soroka has pitched better than his 4.70 ERA would indicate with a 3.24 fielding independent, giving up 0.9 home runs and 2.6 walks per nine innings while getting 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a Pirates lineup that entered Tuesday tied for sixth in scoring with over 5.1 runs per game, but they are averaging nearly 5.9 runs per game at home compared to 4.2 runs per game away from home.

Pick: Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.3

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