The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, May 7, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 374-188 (66.5%) for +50.60 units and an ROI of 9%!
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-118 vs MIN)
SAN DIEGO Momentum in follow-up game after divisional series vs. San Francisco: 23-13 record (65.7%) for +11.60 units, ROI: 32.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-168 vs STL)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 369-404 but for +97.52 units and an ROI of 12.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+135 at NYY), CLEVELAND (+119 at KC), CINCINNATI (+163 at CHC), BALTIMORE (+104 at MIA)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are off to a modest 72-51 start for +2.84 units and an ROI of +2.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+135 at NYY), MIAMI (-126 vs BAL)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 21-31 for -13.05 units and an ROI of -25.1%!
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+119 at KC)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a slow 74-51 start for -1.34 units and an ROI of -1.1%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-168 vs STL)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 37-46 for +8.02 units.
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+104 at MIA)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units. The 2026 record so far is 16-8 for -2.64 units. Over the last three weeks, this angle has lost -8.02 units and is trending normally again.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-199 vs CIN)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to an 11-6 start for -3.11 units. The ROI on that is -18.3%.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-199 vs CIN)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a rocky start, 67-85 for -10.59 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-102 at AZ), TEXAS (+135 at NYY), CLEVELAND (+119 at KC), TAMPA BAY (-105 at BOS)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 42-49 start for -0.77 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 20-24 for -1.83 units and an ROI of-4.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – BALTIMORE (+104 at MIA)
3-games – BOSTON (-115 vs TB)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 36-48 for -6.96 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+163 at CHC), COLORADO (+123 vs NYM)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 369-404 but for +97.52 units and an ROI of 12.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+135 at NYY), CLEVELAND (+119 at KC), CINCINNATI (+163 at CHC), BALTIMORE (+104 at MIA)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 389-330 but for -78.14 units and an ROI of -10.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-115 vs TB), SAN DIEGO (-168 vs STL)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 162-66 for +14.11 units and an ROI of 6.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-199 vs CIN)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 652-764 record but for +15.44 units and an ROI of 1.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (+113 at PHI), MINNESOTA (-102 at WSH)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2040-1931 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -265.67 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-149 at COL), WASHINGTON (-118 vs MIN)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2042-2617 (43.8%) for -275.84 units and an ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS, MINNESOTA, PITTSBURGH
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4134-3590 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -517.19 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO, PHILADELPHIA, WASHINGTON, CHICAGO CUBS, COLORADO
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 616-507 (54.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +30.85 units, for an ROI of 2.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-143 vs CLE), ARIZONA (-115 vs PIT)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 374-188 (66.5%) for +50.60 units and an ROI of 9%!
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-118 vs MIN)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 185-220 SU record for +38.07 units and an ROI of 9.4% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+123 vs NYM)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 216-251 SU but for +42.95 units (ROI: 9.2%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+123 vs NYM)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 496-570 SU but for +66.39 units (ROI: 6.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (+113 at PHI), ST LOUIS (+139 at SD)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams on 6+ game losing streaks playing in less-competitive divisional games (-150 or more favorite/+150 or more underdog) have had their totals go OVER at a 65-47-8 (58%) rate since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CIN-CHC (o/u at 8.5)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 287-300 run (+9.24 units, ROI: 1.6%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MIAMI (-126 vs BAL)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 183-151 (+10.26 units, ROI: 3.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-105 at BOS)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 157-150 (-53.87 units, ROI: -17.5%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-199 vs CIN)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA -115 (+25 diff), MIAMI -126 (+23), SAN DIEGO -168 (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CIN-CHC OVER 8.5 (+0.6), MIN-WSH OVER 9 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLE-KC UNDER 9.5 (-0.9), NYM-COL UNDER 11 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) CINCINNATI (20-17) at (902) CHICAGO-NL (25-12)
Trend: CHC is 17-5 (+7.77 units) at home this season
Trend: CHC is 32-13 (+13.83 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-199 vs CIN)
(905) ST LOUIS (21-15) at (906) SAN DIEGO (22-14)
Trend: STL is 17-12 (+8.61 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+139 at SD)
(907) TEXAS (17-19) at (908) NEW YORK-AL (25-12)
Trend: Paul Blackburn’s teams are 7-17 (-8.75 units) when he starts vs opponents with a winning pct between 45-55% in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-163 vs TEX)
(913) MINNESOTA (16-21) at (914) WASHINGTON (17-20)
Trend: MIN is 19-13 (+4.77 units) against teams with a <= 0.500 win pct with starter Simeon Woods-Richardson since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-102 at WSH)
(915) BALTIMORE (17-20) at (916) MIAMI (16-21)
Trend: Over the total is 11-2-1 (+8.80 units) when BAL is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BALTIMORE (+104 at MIA)
Trend: MIA is 1-8 (-8.28 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+1.5 vs BAL)
(919) NEW YORK-NL (14-22) at (920) COLORADO (14-23)
Trend: NYM is 0-8 (-8.61 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-1.5 at COL)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #14: St Louis at San Diego, Thu 5/7-Sun 5/10
Trend: Home teams are 20-9 (69%, +8.58 units) in the last 29 games between San Diego and St Louis
– The ROI on this trend is 29.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-168 vs STL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, BALTIMORE, PHILADELPHIA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, ARIZONA, PHILADELPHIA
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
SAN DIEGO
Momentum after series vs. SAN FRANCISCO: 23-13 (65.7%) +11.60 units, ROI: 32.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-168 vs STL)
The post Steve Makinen’s MLB Picks from Betting Splits and Systems for Thursday, May 7 appeared first on VSiN.
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