Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies 6:40 PM ET

Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120 per DraftKings)

The Philadelphia Phillies are slowly climbing the NL East standings after another series victory against the Athletics. Yesterday’s game certainly didn’t go according to plan, but they remain at home tonight as they begin a new series against the Colorado Rockies. One of the biggest catalysts in this turnaround for Philadelphia has been the improved consistency from Bryce Harper at the plate.

Harper was pulled early from yesterday’s game once things got out of hand, finishing with just 1 AB and a walk. In the last 5 full games he has played, he has surpassed 1.5 total bases in 3 of those contests. Looking at his last 10 games overall, he has gone over that mark in 5 of 10.

Harper’s slugging percentage has also skyrocketed in the month of May, currently sitting at an impressive .833, which has boosted his season slugging percentage to .551. Tonight, the Phillies will face Chase Dollander, who has shown flashes for Colorado this season, but is coming off a rough outing against the Athletics where he allowed 6 runs on 8 hits while opponents batted .364 against him.

Harper has also been excellent in night games this season, batting .310 with a .609 slugging percentage. Against right-handed pitching, he owns a .310 batting average and a .619 slugging percentage. With all of those trends lining up, this feels like a perfect setup for Harper to deliver another strong offensive performance tonight.

Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins 7:10 PM ET

Foster Griffin Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (+100 per DraftKings)

Washington appears to have found a reliable arm in left-hander Foster Griffin, who currently owns the best ERA on the Nationals staff at 2.27. We’ve steadily seen Washington increase Griffin’s workload throughout the season, gradually allowing him to throw more pitches and work deeper into games.

Early in the season, Griffin was typically capped around 5.0 to 5.1 innings while staying under 90 pitches. Recently, however, we’ve seen him eclipse 95 pitches and pitch beyond 6 innings in each of his last 3 starts.

Griffin is set up for another quality outing tonight pitching at LoanDepot Park, which plays relatively neutral in terms of hitter friendliness. While Miami currently ranks 9th in MLB batting average at .248 overall, they have struggled significantly against left-handed pitching, batting just .229 against southpaws, which ranks 21st in baseball.

If Griffin can continue getting ahead in counts early and limiting hard contact, he should have a great chance to work deep into this game once again.

Miami Marlins Under 4.5 Runs (-140 per DraftKings)

Miami played some really solid baseball throughout most of April, but toward the end of the month and into May, they’ve started to cool off offensively. The Marlins are now coming off back-to-back home series losses and haven’t been producing runs at the same level they were earlier in the season.

In 4 of their last 5 games, Miami has scored fewer than 4.5 runs, and they have stayed under that mark in 8 of their last 10 games overall. Tonight they’ll be facing Foster Griffin, who has been one of the biggest surprises for Washington this season.

This will also be the first time anyone in the Marlins lineup has faced Griffin at the MLB level. As mentioned earlier, Miami has struggled against left-handed pitching this season, batting just .229 in those matchups.

With Griffin throwing the ball well and Miami’s offense slowing down recently, this projects as a relatively low-scoring game tonight in South Florida.

New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks 9:40 PM ET

Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (-124 per DraftKings)

Since returning to the lineup, Juan Soto has looked really impressive, entering tonight with a .296 batting average and a .519 slugging percentage on the season. He finished the Rockies series on a strong note as well, accumulating 7 total bases over the final 2 games.

The beginning of May was not particularly productive for Soto, as he recorded just 2 total bases across his first 4 games of the month. Since April 28th, however, he has piled up 23 total bases, averaging roughly 2.55 per game during that stretch.

Tonight, Soto will face a familiar arm in Ryne Nelson, whom he has hit well throughout his career. In 12 ABs against Nelson, Soto owns a .250 batting average, a massive 1.443 OPS, and 2 home runs.

Nelson has struggled at times this season, carrying a 6.61 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP, both well above his career averages. His H/9 currently sits at 9.19, also noticeably above his career mark of 8.65. With the Mets looking to get off to a fast start in Arizona, expect Soto to be right in the middle of the action offensively tonight.

Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 10:10 PM ET

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Chris Sale Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+119 per DraftKings)

Through 7 starts this season, veteran left-hander Chris Sale has looked dominant. Across 42.0 innings pitched, Sale owns a 2.14 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and 49 strikeouts, averaging 7 strikeouts per outing. He is also coming off an electric 11-strikeout performance against the Rockies and has surpassed 6.5 strikeouts in each of his last 3 starts.

So why back the under tonight? Simply put, the Dodgers are one of the most difficult lineups in baseball to strike out. Los Angeles is tied with Atlanta for the 7th-fewest strikeouts in MLB this season, with just 294 total strikeouts.

Last season against the Dodgers, Sale worked 5.0 innings on 87 pitches and recorded only 5 strikeouts. Tonight’s game will also be played at Dodger Stadium, which has ranked as one of the more hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball since 2024.

Between the disciplined Dodgers lineup, the hitter-friendly environment, and the likelihood of Sale working a more pitch-efficient outing rather than chasing strikeouts, this feels like a solid spot to fade the strikeout total tonight.