MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, May 12.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.

6:10 PM Eastern

Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians 

Angels starting pitcher Walbert Ureña has a solid 3.22 ERA this season, but is prone to get knocked out of this start early, giving out 6.4 walks per nine innings. He is supported by an Angels bullpen that entered Monday 28th in ERA at 5.38 and essentially used a bullpen game on Monday. Guardians starting pitcher Slade Cecconi has had a shaky start to the season with a 6.15 ERA, 1.8 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings. He does benefit from being supported by a Guardians bullpen that is currently 16th in ERA at 3.98, but has been steadily improving as getting closer to their 2025 from when the bullpen was third in ERA.

Pick: Guardians Moneyline -126
(Greg’s Handicap Guardians -140)

6:40 PM Eastern 

Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates 

Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes enters having allowed one or zero runs in six of his past seven starts with an overall season ERA of 2.36, giving out just 1.5 walks per nine innings. Rockies starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen has struggled with a 6.92 ERA this season, but a lot of the struggles stem back to his home ballpark being Coors Field, as his ERA goes from 9.64 at home to 4.43 away from home. The Rockies’ offense ranks 22nd in road scoring with just under four runs per game.

Pick: Pirates vs. Rockies Under 8 Runs
(Greg’s Handicapped Total 6.7)

Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds 

Nationals starting pitcher Miles Mikolas, who might be turned into a bulk pitcher as the Nationals have recently used openers in front of him, has struggled regardless of starting or being in a bulk role. He is posting a 7.44 ERA with 2.5 home runs per nine innings allowed. Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer has struggled himself with a 5.63 ERA, allowing 1.9 home runs per nine innings with a career-low 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings. While the Nationals are second in the league in scoring with 5.3 runs per game, they are only 22nd in batting average against right-handed pitching and 21st in on-base percentage plus slugging against right-handers.

Picks: Reds Moneyline -135 and Under 10 Runs
(Greg’s Handicap Reds -174 and Total 9.4)

7:07 PM Eastern 

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays 

Rays starting pitcher Shane McClanahan has shown little to no rust after missing the past two seasons due to injury, posting a 2.60 ERA and 2.74 fielding independent with just one home run allowed in 34 1/3 innings across seven starts. Blue Jays starting pitcher Patrick Corbin has been significantly improved from past seasons, posting a 3.60 ERA with 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed. He is pitching to lots of contact with 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings and has had an ERA of 4.40 or higher each of the past six seasons, posting a 5.20 ERA or higher in four of the past five seasons. Toronto is 24th in the league in scoring with 4.1 runs per game.

Pick: Rays Moneyline -110
(Greg’s Handicap Rays -142)

7:15 PM Eastern 

Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves 

Cubs starting pitcher Colin Rea has found the fountain of youth as he gets set to turn 36 in June. He is posting a 4.03 ERA with a career-high 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings and 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed. Rea faces the highest scoring offense in the league with Atlanta averaging nearly 5.6 runs per game. Braves starting pitcher Grant Holmes has to face a Cubs offense that is third in scoring with 5.2 runs per game. Holmes has a 4.34 ERA with seven strikeouts per nine innings to go with 1.4 home runs and 4.1 walks per nine innings allowed. He is supported by a Braves bullpen that is third in ERA at 3.31, while the Cubs are 13th at 3.87.

Picks: Braves Moneyline -120 and Over 9 Runs
(Greg’s Handicap Braves -145 and Total 9.6)

7:40 PM Eastern

Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins 

Marlins starting pitcher Eury Perez has struggled this season with a 5.01 ERA and 1.5 home runs per nine innings allowed, but is also getting 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Perez is supported by a bullpen that ranks fifth in ERA at 3.37. Twins starting pitcher Bailey Ober has a 4.19 ERA with one home run and 3.1 walks per nine innings overall this season. He has been much better at home with a 3.21 ERA and 0.6 home runs per nine innings allowed at home, compared to a 6.00 ERA with 1.8 home runs per nine innings allowed on the road.

Pick: Marlins vs. Twins Under 9 Runs
(Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.3)

San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Padres starting pitcher Matt Waldron has struggled this season, supplying a 7.71 ERA with 1.9 home runs per nine innings. Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Sproat had also struggled, posting a 5.87 ERA with 2.1 home runs and 5.3 walks per nine innings. He has the support of a lineup that ranks fifth in scoring with over 5.1 runs per game despite being last in the league in percentage of at-bats that yield a home run.

Pick: Padres vs. Brewers Over 8.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicapped Total 9.2)

8:05 PM Eastern

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers 

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Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zac Gallen has a career low 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings, but has been better than the 4.70 ERA would indicate. He allows only 0.9 home runs and 2.8 walks per nine innings. Rangers starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore has been almost the opposite of Gallen, getting 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings, but much like Gallen, he has pitched better than his ERA would indicate. He is posting a 5.18 ERA with a 3.99 fielding independent and is supported by a Rangers bullpen that has the lowest ERA in the league at 2.80. The Rangers’ offense is last in scoring at home with 2.8 runs per game.

Pick: Diamondbacks vs. Rangers Under 8.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.6)

9:40 PM Eastern 

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics 

Both teams have been above average on offense this season with the Cardinals 10th in scoring with 4.7 runs per game while the Athletics are 12th with 4.4 runs per game. Jeffrey Springs gets the start for the Athletics. He has a 3.89 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 2.5 walks per nine innings. Cardinals starting pitcher Andre Pallante has pitched to a lot of contact with seven strikeouts per nine innings, but has a 4.34 ERA with 1.2 home runs per nine innings allowed.

Pick: Cardinals vs. Athletics Under 10.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicapped Total 9.7)

10:10 PM Eastern 

San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 

Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been solid once again this season with a 3.09 ERA. allowing one home run and 2.1 walks per nine innings. He faces an offense that is last in scoring, entering the series with 3.25 runs per game. Giants starting pitcher Adrian Houser has struggled to a 6.19 ERA with 1.7 home runs per nine innings allowed and only getting 4.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The Dodgers are averaging only 4.3 runs per game at home compared to nearly six runs per game away from home. The Giants support Houser with a bullpen that is 11th in ERA at 3.73, while the Dodgers are fourth in bullpen ERA at 3.35.

Pick: Giants vs. Dodgers Under 8.5 Runs
(Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.1)

   

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