MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, May 18.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.

6:40 PM Eastern

Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies starting pitcher Andrew Painter has struggled to a 6.21 ERA, but his 4.82 fielding independent points toward positive regression. Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo has posted an 8.68 ERA with three home runs allowed in 9 1/3 innings across two starts this season after beginning the year on the injured list. However, he is coming off a 2025 season in which he posted a 3.33 ERA with nine strikeouts and 1.8 walks issued per nine innings and now faces a Phillies lineup that entered Sunday ranked 19th in scoring with 4.2 runs per game.

Pick: Reds vs. Phillies Under 9.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.4

Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Orioles starting pitcher Trevor Rogers has struggled this season, posting a 5.77 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings. Rays starting pitcher Shane McClanahan has been strong despite missing the 2024 and 2025 seasons due to injury, registering a 2.27 ERA with only one home run allowed in 39 2/3 innings this season.

Pick: Rays Moneyline -135

Greg’s Handicap: Rays -163

6:45 PM Eastern

New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals

Mets starting pitcher Christian Scott has a solid 3.45 ERA, but he is having command issues with 5.2 walks per nine innings. Nationals starting pitcher Jake Irvin has pitched better than his 5.91 ERA would indicate, posting a 4.64 fielding independent with a career-high 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He also faces a Mets lineup that ranks 27th in scoring with fewer than 3.8 runs per game, while the Nationals lead the league in scoring with nearly 5.5 runs per game.

Pick: Nationals Moneyline +122

Greg’s Handicap: Nationals +104

7:40 PM Eastern

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs

Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Sproat has been the weak link in an otherwise solid rotation, posting a 5.75 ERA with two home runs and five walks allowed per nine innings. He now faces a Cubs lineup that ranks fourth in scoring with 5.1 runs per game, and the wind is expected to be blowing out at 10 miles per hour, possibly even stronger. Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga has been dominant this season with a 2.32 ERA, allowing 0.8 home runs per nine innings with 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings.

Pick: Cubs Run Line -1.5 +125 and Over 10.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Cubs -1.5 -102 and Total 11.7

Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals

Red Sox starting pitcher Sonny Gray has seen his strikeout rate dip to a career-low 5.6 per nine innings, but he has still been effective with a 3.18 ERA while allowing just 1.1 home runs and 2.1 walks per nine innings. Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo has allowed only one home run in 52 2/3 innings this season, but he enters in a funk with at least four runs allowed in three of his past four starts despite a 3.76 ERA overall. He is also backed by a lineup that ranks 24th in scoring with under 4.1 runs per game and a bullpen that ranks 21st in ERA at 4.42, while the Red Sox bullpen ranks fourth at 3.16.

Pick: Red Sox Moneyline -107 and Under 9 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -127 and Total 8.4

Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins

While the Twins will have Kendry Rojas begin the game on the mound, he is expected to serve as an opener for Simeon Woods Richardson, who has struggled with a 7.71 ERA while posting 4.3 strikeouts and 4.3 walks per nine innings along with 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings. Astros starting pitcher Tatsuya Imai has also struggled since coming over from Japan in the offseason, posting a 9.24 ERA through four starts with a staggering 9.9 walks per nine innings. He is also backed by an Astros bullpen that owns the highest ERA in the league at 5.81.

Pick: Twins Moneyline -105

Greg’s Handicap: Twins -126

8:40 PM Eastern

Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies

While the Rangers entered Sunday ranked 29th in the league in scoring with only 3.6 runs per game, their offense has been far better away from home, averaging about 4.1 runs per game compared to only three runs per game at home. They now face Rockies starting pitcher Jose Quintana, who has a respectable 3.97 ERA but a much higher 5.57 fielding independent with as many strikeouts as walks at 4.2 per nine innings. Rangers starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore owns a 4.50 ERA overall, but that number rises to 6.38 on the road with six walks per nine innings in road starts.

Pick: Rangers vs. Rockies Over 10 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Total 10.8

9:38 PM Eastern

Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels

The Angels have struggled to score at home, ranking 28th with 3.1 runs per game, and now face Athletics starting pitcher JT Ginn, who owns a 3.12 ERA with one home run allowed per nine innings. Angels starting pitcher Walbert Ureña has a 3.29 ERA and, while his 5.6 walks per nine innings are concerning, he does face an Athletics lineup that ranks 22nd in road scoring with just under four runs per game.

Pick: Athletics vs. Angels Under 9 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.3

9:40 PM Eastern

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres

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Padres starting pitcher Michael King has started the season strong with a 2.63 ERA while allowing only 0.7 home runs per nine innings. Dodgers starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto has uncharacteristically allowed a good amount of hard contact this season, posting a 3.60 ERA and 3.92 fielding independent with 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings. While the Dodgers lead the league in road scoring with 6.4 runs per game, the Padres bullpen owns a 3.00 ERA at home this season.

Pick: Padres Moneyline +135 and Under 7.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Padres +123 and Total 7.2

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zac Gallen owns a 5.02 ERA this season, but he has done a decent job of avoiding self-inflicted damage with 1.3 home runs and 2.9 walks allowed per nine innings. He has also been far better at home, posting a 2.65 ERA with 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings compared to a 7.25 ERA with 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings on the road. Giants starting pitcher Robbie Ray owns a 3.04 ERA, but a much higher 4.92 fielding independent with 1.8 home runs and 3.6 walks allowed per nine innings. The Giants offense has not provided much support, ranking last in scoring with fewer than 3.4 runs per game.

Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline -130 and Under 9 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -142 and Total 8.3

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