Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, May 22.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

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2:20 PM Eastern

Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs

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While the wind may have a slight inward direction to it, conditions appeared overnight to be shifting more toward the east than directly inward. Astros starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti owns an impressive 1.50 ERA, but his 3.61 fielding independent and 5.3 walks per nine innings are concerns. He is also backed by a bullpen that owns the worst ERA in the league at 5.72. Cubs starting pitcher Jameson Taillon has a 4.97 ERA and an alarming 6.68 fielding independent with 2.8 home runs and three walks allowed per nine innings, though he is supported by a lineup that ranks seventh in scoring with 4.9 runs per game.

Pick: Astros vs. Cubs Over 7 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7

6:40 PM Eastern

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds

Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Leahy owns a 3.94 ERA this season and has allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven of his past eight starts, though his 4.87 fielding independent with 6.7 strikeouts and 3.9 walks per nine innings points toward some regression. Reds starting pitcher Chris Paddack has endured such a rough start to the season that the Miami Marlins designated him for assignment, as he owns a 7.07 ERA. He is also backed by a bullpen that ranks 26th in ERA at 4.98, while the Cardinals bullpen ranks 23rd at 4.54.

Pick: Cardinals Moneyline +100 and Over 9.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -109 and Total 9.8

Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams owns a 3.67 ERA and 3.76 fielding independent with 1.3 home runs and 3.2 walks allowed per nine innings, though his ERA rises to 4.97 on the road with nearly 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings away from home. Phillies starting pitcher Cristopher Sanchez has not allowed an earned run across his past three starts, spanning 24 innings, and owns a 1.82 ERA overall with 11.2 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings. However, both bullpens are fairly average, with the Guardians ranking 13th in bullpen ERA at 3.80 and the Phillies ranking 15th at 4.04. Cleveland’s offense has also been red hot in May, averaging nearly 5.3 runs per game, which leads the American League.

Pick: Guardians vs. Phillies Over 7 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.6

7:05 PM Eastern

Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees

Rays starting pitcher Nick Martinez has dazzled to begin the season, posting a 1.51 ERA, but his 3.26 fielding independent and the amount of contact he allows with only 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings point toward regression. He also has to face a Yankees lineup that leads the league in home scoring with 6.3 runs per game. Gerrit Cole makes his season debut for the Yankees after posting a 4.66 ERA with 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings across six minor league rehab starts.

Pick: Rays vs. Yankees Over 8 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7

Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox

Red Sox starting pitcher Payton Tolle has been superb since being called up to the major leagues, posting a 2.05 ERA, though his 3.21 fielding independent suggests regression could be coming. Twins rookie Connor Prielipp has also enjoyed a strong start with a 2.88 ERA, but his 4.19 fielding independent along with 1.4 home runs and 3.2 walks allowed per nine innings are also causes for concern. Minnesota backs him with a bullpen that ranks 28th in ERA at 5.00.

Pick: Twins vs. Red Sox Over 7.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7

Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles

Tigers starting pitcher Jack Flaherty has had major issues with walks, issuing six per nine innings, which has led to an elevated 5.77 ERA. Orioles starting pitcher Chris Bassitt is having problems of his own, posting a 5.44 ERA with 6.4 strikeouts and four walks per nine innings. He is also backed by the weaker bullpen in this matchup, as the Orioles rank 25th in bullpen ERA at 4.83 while the Tigers rank 14th at 3.90.

Pick: Tigers Moneyline +116 and Over 8.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -117 and Total 8.8

7:10 PM Eastern

New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins

Neither team is generating much power, as the Marlins rank 28th in home runs per at-bat while the Mets rank 22nd. Mets starting pitcher Freddy Peralta has been solid with a 3.31 ERA while allowing one home run and recording 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Marlins starting pitcher Eury Perez has struggled with a 5.33 ERA, allowing 1.7 home runs and 4.8 walks per nine innings, but he has historically been much better at home with a career 2.78 ERA and 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings compared to a 5.30 ERA and 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings on the road.

Pick: Mets vs. Marlins Under 8 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.4

7:15 PM Eastern

Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves

Miles Mikolas is currently listed as the starting pitcher for the Nationals, though an opener could be used before he enters the game. Regardless of the setup, Mikolas has struggled with a 6.91 ERA and 2.4 home runs allowed per nine innings. Braves expected starter Bryce Elder owns a superb 2.01 ERA, though his 3.20 fielding independent suggests some regression could be coming. He also faces a Nationals lineup that leads the league in scoring with over 5.5 runs per game, while the Braves rank second with just under 5.4 runs per game.

Pick: Braves Run Line -1.5 -109 and Over 9 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Braves -1.5 -124 and Total 9.7

10:15 PM Eastern

Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants

While Giants starting pitcher Trevor McDonald has made only seven career MLB appearances, he has been excellent in them with a 1.95 ERA while allowing 0.7 home runs and 1.5 walks per nine innings. White Sox starting pitcher Davis Martin has also been outstanding this season with a 1.61 ERA while allowing 0.5 home runs and 1.6 walks per nine innings. However, he is backed by a White Sox bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA at 4.63, while the Giants bullpen ranks ninth at 3.48.

Pick: Giants Moneyline +100

Greg’s Handicap: Giants -113

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