We cashed our only bet of Thursday, as Golden State beat New York outright as 7.5-point underdogs. We’ve now hit two of our last three bets after an inexplicably brutal losing streak. Let’s hope to build on the momentum tonight as Dallas visits Atlanta, Golden State plays a back-to-back at Indiana, and Seattle and Connecticut will rematch in Seattle. Here are the TSI projections for all three games Friday night.

Atlanta Dream (-5.5) vs Dallas Wings, O/U 172.5

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Atlanta is expected to get star wing Rhyne Howard back from concussion protocol tonight, while Dallas plays its second of three consecutive road games after defeating Chicago earlier this week. Atlanta is just 9th in TSI offensive rating but 2nd in defensive rating, while Dallas is #1 on offense and #7 on defense so far. Atlanta has played just one home game, its last game against Vegas in which it lost 85-84 in the final seconds. Dallas is averaging 103 points per game on the road in two games while allowing around 97 points per game away from home. TSI projects Atlanta -3 with a total of 172.5. I’m going to back Paige Bueckers and Dallas here, but spoiler: I will be looking to fade them next game as it’ll be their third road game in five days. 

Bet: Wings +4.5 or better

Indiana Fever (-6.5) vs Golden State Valkyries, O/U 169

This is a situational spot that I had circled, as Golden State is on a back-to-back and Indiana (presumably) gets Caitlin Clark in the lineup after a weird load management/franchise friction situation in the Fever’s last game. Golden State took down the Liberty last night, and speaking from experience, winning a big game you’re not supposed to and having to turn around and play the next night is physically and emotionally draining. Unfortunately, TSI doesn’t align with fading the Valkyries due to their stellar play, but the Tempo were in a similarly-circled spot last night and got crushed at Minnesota. TSI projects Indiana -4 with a total of 166.5, as Indiana is 5th and 9th in TSI offensive and defensive ratings, respectively, while the Valkyries are 10th and 1st. Totals have been kind of a mess early in the season, so I’m going to lean Under but no official play until I have more data on how back-to-backs are affecting teams.

Lean: Under 169

Seattle Storm (-2.5) vs Connecticut Sun, O/U 166

These teams just faced off last game and will rematch tonight, with Seattle looking to avenge the two-point loss to the Sun. Seattle is 14th on offense and 10th on defense in TSI ratings, while Connecticut is 13th and 14th, respectively. TSI projects Seattle -3 with a total of 167, so not much value here to be had, though I’d lean Seattle in the rematch, as this is Connecticut’s third straight road game. 

Lean: Storm -2.5

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