MLB Best Bets Today: Adam Burke’s Picks for Monday, May 25

MLB Best Bets Today May 25

Four teams have the Memorial Day holiday off, but that means that we have 13 games on the betting board, including a handful of matinee matchups. As always, for the purposes of lead time, those games are not really under consideration, but eight games start at 4 p.m. ET or later, so the pickings were not slim.

I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.

One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.

Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for May 25:

Yankees vs. Royals Prediction

Pick: Royals +108

This was a game I stared at a lot and ultimately decided to pull the trigger. Will Warren gets the start for the Yankees and Michael Wacha for the Royals, as it’ll be a warm and sunny day at Kauffman Stadium for this 2:40 p.m. CT first pitch. 

This game features some of the same things I talked about with Warren in his last start. He only struck out three batters in five innings and allowed three runs on six hits. The play was Blue Jays 1st 5 and Dylan Cease, who left yesterday’s game hurt, wasn’t sharp enough to help us win, but the handicap on Warren was correct.

Warren’s CStr% is around 20%, one of the highest in the league. The premise with the Blue Jays was that they are an aggressive lineup that makes a lot of contact and rarely swings and misses. The Royals are a similar group. They have a sub-20% K% against RHP and also one of the lowest walk rates. So, they’re going to put balls in play. Warren ranks in the 41st percentile in Hard Hit% and doesn’t generate a high rate of chases outside the zone. I think at some point, that will catch up with him. His run estimators are better than his actual ERA with his very strong K/BB numbers, but he has allowed 11 runs over his last 14.2 innings and some BABIP regression has caught up with him thanks to the hard contact.

The 34-year-old Wacha is what he has always been, owning a 2.70 ERA with a 3.85 xERA and a 3.87 FIP, as he’s induced a lot of weak contact and kept the ball in the park. He’s working on his fourth straight season with a HR/FB% under 10%. His changeup remains a truly elite weapon and he’s got that veteran pitchability to keep guys off-balance with six different pitches.

The Yankees are 25th against RHP in wOBA over the last 14 days and have one of the highest K% at 26.3%. They continue to draw walks, but Wacha has never really walked a lot of guys. Also, the Yankees are coming off of consecutive series against division rivals, including the first-place Rays. Now they have to go to Kansas City? Maybe a bit of a letdown spot.

Nationals vs. Guardians Prediction

Picks: Guardians 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (-120); Tanner Bibee (CLE) To Record A Win (+120)

Zack Littell is expected to follow opener PJ Poulin for the Nationals here. Using the left-handed Poulin as an opener makes a ton of sense, as the Guardians will likely have nine left-handed batters in the lineup. I could envision a scenario in which manager Stephen Vogt sneaks another righty into the first inning against Poulin, maybe by using David Fry or Rhys Hoskins in place of a lefty who will then take over. Even if not, Jose Ramirez will bat right-handed against the opener.

Littell has been egregiously bad against lefties this season and bad on the season as a whole. While he has a 2.55 ERA over his last 17.2 innings, he has a 6.19 xERA in that period with a 4.61 FIP, so it’s just batted ball and sequencing variance with a .193 BABIP against and a 78.9% LOB% with a pathetic 9.9% K%. There’s no sustainability in those numbers. He’s still allowed a 52.5% Hard Hit% and an 11.9% Barrel% in that span.

For the season as a whole, Littell has a 5.83 ERA with a 7.46 xERA and a 7.33 FIP over 46.1 innings. Lefties have hit 12 of the 15 homers that he has allowed and have drawn 10 walks while striking out only eight times, posting a .300/.360/.690 slash over 112 plate appearances. That’s good for a collective .446 wOBA. Yordan Alvarez has a .429 wOBA to lead the league, just as a frame of reference.

Cleveland should have a concerted effort offensively here, as they’ve only scored nine runs in support of Tanner Bibee, who is 0-6 on the season in 11 starts despite a 3.75 ERA with a 3.88 xERA and a 3.97 FIP. Bibee hasn’t racked up as many strikeouts this season, but he has cut down his Barrel% and his SwStr% is up.

He’s also extremely good at home, holding opponents to a .206/.284/.294 slash with a .266 wOBA in 141 PA this season. He’s allowed eight runs in 34.1 innings compared to 17 runs in 25.2 innings on the road. For his career, Bibee’s ERA is a full run lower at home in a similar amount of innings and his SLG against is over 100 points lower.

The Guardians bullpen might be a touch thin tonight – all the more reason to provide run support by getting to Littell and a Nationals bullpen that ranks 25th in ERA over the last 14 days. Cleveland’s bullpen has really stabilized as well. They’re going to be hellbent on getting Bibee a win and they’re playing really well right now.

Mariners vs. Athletics Prediction

Pick: Mariners -118

Bryce Miller got the start and Luis Castillo appeared in relief last time, but Seattle will flip the script here and go with Castillo first and then Miller in relief. I think it’s a sharp move from manager Dan Wilson and his coaching staff. Castillo allowed two runs in his 2.1 innings of work and was the losing pitcher, as Miller went 5.2 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts. In fairness to Castillo, reliever Andres Munoz allowed two inherited runners to score, including a double steal right when he came in the game.

But, I do think that Miller, who is an objectively better pitcher at this point, being used in higher-leverage as the second leg of the piggyback makes sense. In two appearances, Miller has allowed two runs on nine hits in 11 innings with 10 strikeouts against just two walks.

Offensively, I think Seattle is a positive regression candidate on the road. They are seventh in Pull% and eighth in FB%, but only have a 10.3% HR/FB%. On a nice day in Sacramento with the wind blowing out, today is a good day for some good things to happen. Seattle is just 19th in road wOBA at .305, but their .365 SLG is the place I’m looking for improvement. Statcast data has them third in xSLG at .423.

Facing Aaron Civale should be the day that it happens. He’s allowed six Barrels in his last two starts and five homers. He’s a strike-thrower, but that also leads to giving up some loud contact at times. As it is, he’s in line for some hardships, as his 3.31 ERA led by an 89.4% LOB% is going to keep going the other way with a 4.90 xERA and a 4.90 FIP over 51.2 innings of work. Among pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched, Civale’s 28.6% GB% is the second-lowest. Not ideal for these conditions today in Sactown.

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