MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, June 5.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

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2:20 PM Eastern

San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs

The wind will be blowing out at over 10 miles per hour at Wrigley Field on Friday, and the Giants need all the help on offense that they can get, as the team entered Thursday 29th in run production with just over 3.8 runs per game. They send Robbie Ray to the mound, who has a 4.45 ERA with 1.9 home runs per nine innings allowed and faces a Cubs lineup that is 11th in run production at home with nearly 4.6 runs per game. Ben Brown is expected to pitch for the Cubs and has dazzled with a 1.92 ERA while allowing just 0.2 home runs per nine innings.

Pick: Giants vs. Cubs Under 11.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: 10.3

6:40 PM Eastern

Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies

White Sox starting pitcher Anthony Kay owns a 3.77 ERA overall with a 5.23 fielding independent this season, allowing 1.3 home runs and 3.8 walks per nine innings. However, he enters in good form, having allowed two earned runs or fewer in all six of his starts in May and in 10 of his 12 appearances overall this season. Phillies starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo has pitched better than his 4.30 ERA would indicate, posting a 2.77 fielding independent with 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing 0.7 home runs and 2.6 walks per nine innings.

Pick: White Sox vs. Phillies Under 8.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: 8.1

7:10 PM Eastern

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins

Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen has been reliable this season with a 3.36 ERA and 1.2 home runs allowed per nine innings. Marlins starting pitcher Ryan Gusto has only pitched three innings at the MLB level this season, allowing three runs in those three innings after posting a 5.67 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 3.2 walks per nine innings in 2025. He faces a Rays offense that is ninth in scoring with nearly 4.7 runs per game.

Pick: Rays vs. Marlins Over 7.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: 8.2

7:15 PM Eastern

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves

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Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller owns a 4.35 ERA, has allowed at least four runs in three of his past four starts, and is averaging 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings this season. He faces a Braves lineup that is second in scoring with 5.3 runs per game. Braves starting pitcher Martin Perez has a 2.79 ERA that appears due for regression based on his 4.15 fielding independent. He is averaging 7.3 strikeouts and 3.1 walks per nine innings and faces a Pirates lineup that is fourth in scoring with 5.2 runs per game.

Pick: Pirates vs. Braves Over 8.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: 9.3

8:15 PM Eastern

Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins

Twins starting pitcher Zebby Matthews owns a 4.63 ERA overall with 1.9 home runs per nine innings allowed, but he has a strikeout-to-walk ratio of six. Royals starting pitcher Michael Wacha owns a 3.23 ERA with a higher 3.90 fielding independent, allowing one home run and 3.1 walks per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 28th in ERA at 5.06. The Royals are last in run creation away from home with 3.3 runs per game, while the Twins are 10th in scoring with 4.6 runs per game.

Pick: Twins Moneyline -108

Greg’s Handicap: Twins -143

8:40 PM Eastern

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies

Rockies starting pitcher Ryan Feltner owns a 4.85 ERA overall but appears to be rounding into peak form, allowing four earned runs across 13 2/3 innings in his last three appearances. Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Sproat has a 6.24 ERA with 1.8 home runs and five walks per nine innings this season. While Coors Field has the highest park factor for boosting offense in the league, the Rockies are only ninth in the league in scoring at home with 4.7 runs per game, and the Rockies bullpen ranks seventh in ERA at 3.30.

Pick: Brewers vs. Rockies Under 12 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: 11.2

9:40 PM Eastern

New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres

Mets starting pitcher Christian Scott has a low 2.97 ERA, but his 4.7 walks per nine innings are a concern. Padres starting pitcher Michael King has a 3.18 ERA while allowing only 0.8 home runs per nine innings and is supported by a bullpen that ranks fifth in ERA at 3.18. They face a Mets lineup that is 29th in scoring on the road with 3.6 runs per game.

Pick: Padres Moneyline -126

Greg’s Handicap: Padres -167

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