MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, June 8.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.

6:35 PM Eastern

Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles

Mariners starting pitcher Emerson Hancock is in a groove, allowing just five runs across 23 innings over his past four starts. Overall this season, he owns a 2.80 ERA with 8.9 strikeouts and 1.9 walks per nine innings. Orioles starting pitcher Chris Bassitt has a 5.27 ERA with only 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings, but he has lowered that ERA to 4.14 over his last 10 appearances. At home, he owns a 3.09 ERA with only 0.3 home runs allowed per nine innings as he faces a Mariners offense that ranks 18th in scoring with 4.2 runs per game.

Pick: Mariners vs. Orioles Under 9 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: 8.1

6:40 PM Eastern

Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays give Ian Seymour his second start of the season after pitching almost exclusively out of the bullpen, where he owns a 5.23 ERA in 23 appearances. However, his 4.20 fielding independent and 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings point toward positive regression. For his career, Seymour owns a 3.25 ERA with fewer than 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings as a starter compared to a 4.62 ERA with more than one home run allowed per nine innings out of the bullpen.

The Red Sox counter with Connelly Early, who owns a 3.26 ERA that may be due for regression, as he has a 4.63 fielding independent with 1.5 home runs and 3.1 walks allowed per nine innings. He is supported by a lineup that ranks 27th in scoring with fewer than four runs per game.

Pick: Rays Moneyline +100 and Over 7.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Rays -122 and Total 8.2

New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams has generated plenty of whiffs this season, posting 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings and a 3.20 ERA. Though the Yankees rank sixth in scoring with nearly 5.1 runs per game, they have averaged only 3.8 runs per game in June without Aaron Judge. Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren owns a 3.22 ERA with one home run allowed and 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings overall. His ERA drops to 2.25 on the road, where he has allowed just 0.3 home runs per nine innings, and he faces a Guardians lineup that ranks 23rd in scoring with fewer than 4.1 runs per game.

Pick: Yankees vs. Guardians Under 8 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: 6.9

7:07 PM Eastern

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays

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Blue Jays starting pitcher Patrick Corbin has pitched to a lot of contact this season with only 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings, but he owns a solid 3.98 ERA while allowing just one home run and 2.7 walks per nine innings. He faces a Phillies lineup that ranks 28th in road scoring with fewer than 3.7 runs per game.

Phillies starting pitcher Cristopher Sanchez has been outstanding this season, posting a 1.46 ERA with 10.7 strikeouts and only 0.3 home runs allowed per nine innings. He has allowed just one run across 46 innings over his past six starts.

Pick: Phillies vs. Blue Jays Under 7.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: 7.3

9:40 PM Eastern

Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres

Padres starting pitcher Walker Buehler has pitched better than his 4.53 ERA would indicate, posting a 3.50 fielding independent with only 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings. While he is supported by a lineup that ranks last in the league in run creation with 3.8 runs per game, the Padres bullpen ranks fifth in ERA at 3.21, while the Reds bullpen ranks 29th at 5.12.

Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott has pitched to a lot of contact this season, posting a 4.06 ERA and a 4.79 fielding independent with 6.3 strikeouts and 4.1 walks per nine innings.

Pick: Padres Moneyline -130

Greg’s Handicap: Padres -144

10:05 PM Eastern

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics

This game will be played at Las Vegas Ballpark, which should elevate offense more than the Athletics’ normal home games in Sacramento, with temperatures expected in the low to mid-90s and the ballpark sitting about 3,000 feet above sea level.

Overall, the Athletics rank 15th in scoring at home with just under 4.5 runs per game and face Brewers starting pitcher Kyle Harrison, who owns a 1.57 ERA with 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings and only 0.5 home runs allowed per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen that ranks eighth in ERA at 3.31.

Athletics starting pitcher Jeffrey Springs owns a 4.37 ERA with 1.8 home runs allowed per nine innings. While the Brewers rank fourth in the league in scoring with 5.1 runs per game, they are last in home runs per at-bat.

Pick: Brewers vs. Athletics Under 11 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: 9.2

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