Last week the model went 5–3, pushing the 2026 record to 67–37–6 on the year. A winning week, and the process continues to find edges where they exist and protect the bankroll where they don’t.

This week is unlike anything the UFC has ever done.

UFC Freedom 250 takes place outdoors at the White House, and before we get into a single number there’s something important to address. This column is built on data. Controlled environments, consistent conditions, octagon variables we can measure and model. What we cannot model is an outdoor event in June in Washington D.C. Weather, wind, crowd noise, lighting, even insects. Every one of those factors introduces variance that no dataset can fully account for. The warning stands: play carefully this week, maybe size down, and respect the unknowns.

Dave Ross and I broke down the full card on this week’s First Strike. We were joined by former UFC fighter Ricardo Lamas and the Godfather of MMA analytics, Reed Kuhn. Give it a listen everywhere you find your podcasts or watch us on YouTube as well.

And another reminder, this event is on Sunday. Not Saturday.

Ok. Let’s dig in.

Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia

Diego Lopes is one of the toughest fighters in the featherweight division. His last two losses are title fights against Alexander Volkanovski. A note that deserves respect, not criticism. Outside of those bouts he was on a five-fight win streak, squeezed in a TKO over Jean Silva between his Volk fights, and has never been stopped in his professional career. Granite chin, relentless pace, and a fighter who will always give you a war.

Steve Garcia enters on a seven-fight win streak, six of those wins coming by TKO. Most recently he knocked out David Onama back in November. Fifteen of his professional victories have come by knockout. This man is a mean finishing machine.

Garcia holds a three-inch reach advantage at 75 inches, and the xR% gap is significant. Lopes sits at 47%, a red flag number that reflects the wars he’s been through and the rounds given away in those Volk title fights. Garcia checks in at a strong 70%, consistently winning rounds and dictating the pace of his fights.

The striking profiles tell the story of two very different approaches. Lopes spends 75% of his time at distance, landing 4.00 significant strikes per minute with a –0.58 differential. He’s absorbing about 4.5 per minute in those exchanges, getting into firefights and coming out even or behind. He does carry power with five knockdowns scored. And that granite chin means he can survive those exchanges, but the data says he’s losing more of them than he’s winning.

Garcia operates differently. He spends just 41% of his time at distance, preferring to get in close and make it uncomfortable. He lands 4.84 significant strikes per minute with a remarkable +2.96 differential, absorbing only 1.87 significant strikes per minute. That is an elite avoidance profile. He’s landing nearly three times what he’s giving up in exchanges. He’s been knocked down five times in his UFC career but his last knockdown came in 2023, with his head strike defense climbing to 67% as he’s tightened up his game.

The ground game is largely irrelevant here. A combined 11 takedowns between the two, with both men carrying elite takedown defense at 74% for Lopes and 79% for Garcia. Lopes does hold the stronger control rate at 46% to Garcia’s 29%, but neither man is looking to make this a wrestling match.

Running it through the model, the output lands firmly on the underdog. Steve Garcia receives an 82% win probability. A strong number that earns him a Tier 1 Live Dog designation. Live Dogs are 8–5 on the year, and at +145 the gap between the model’s number and the implied probability is one of the largest edges on the card.

One caveat that applies to every fight this week, the outdoor environment introduces unknowns that the model simply can’t account for. Size down accordingly and respect the variance.

Steve Garcia goes on the slip at +145.

Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane

Let’s talk about what’s actually on the line here.

If Alex Pereira wins this fight, he becomes the first three-division champion in UFC history. He captured the middleweight title after just three UFC bouts by knocking out Israel Adesanya. He moved to light heavyweight and made an immediate splash, winning the interim belt and defending the undisputed title three times before dropping it to Ankalaev. And then reclaiming it before making this unprecedented jump to heavyweight.

Ciryl Gane, meanwhile, enters his fifth heavyweight title fight in roughly five years. He won the interim belt in 2021, has seen two other title shots fall short, and finds himself here after a couple eye pokes against Tom Aspinall earned him another opportunity. The heavyweight division is thin, and Gane belongs near the top of it regardless of how that last fight unfolded.

The age gap is minimal. Pereira is 38, Gane is 36. The reach advantage goes to Gane by two inches at 81 inches. Worth noting that Pereira’s stats don’t reflect a division change, as they never do when fighters move up, we take the data available and acknowledge the context.

The xR% gap is meaningful. Pereira has dipped to 60%, decision losses and rounds given away have nudged that number down from its peak. Gane shines at 79%, a championship-level mark that reflects how consistently he controls the pace and can win rounds.

The striking is where the narrative gets interesting. Pereira lands 5.16 significant strikes per minute with a +1.67 differential, absorbing 3.5 per minute, and has scored seven knockdowns in the UFC. Nobody questions his finishing ability. But here’s the number that deserves attention, Gane lands 5.29 significant strikes per minute with a +2.97 differential, absorbing only 2.33 significant strikes per minute. His striking is genuinely clean, efficient, and at a level that matches or exceeds most heavyweights on the roster. The power gap between the two is real, Gane has only three knockdowns to Pereira’s seven, but we don’t yet know what Pereira’s power looks like at heavyweight.

The grappling could be a decisive factor. Pereira holds just an 8% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges. He does not want to be there. Gane holds 53% and has the size and pressure to use that clinch work as a blueprint to stay out of Pereira’s most dangerous range. Gane has scored eight takedowns at 25% accuracy. Pereira defends at 79%, so it won’t be easy, but the threat alone changes positioning.

The model runs the numbers and lands on Gane, but the model’s 66% win probability and confidence places him into the Tier 5 trap favorite category. Tier 5 favorites are hitting only 55% of the time in 2026. The model is telling us to stay away from the favorite.

And that’s kind of why we’re going the other way.

This is not a model play. I don’t do this often. But this is a bet from the heart, and we’re being fully transparent about that. Alex Pereira making UFC history at the White House. The setting, the moment, the fighter, is worth a ticket regardless of what the numbers say. I don’t make a habit of betting against my model. But we’re allowed to have some fun, and this event demands it.

Alex Pereira at -110 seems like a fair price to see history made.

Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje

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Ilia Topuria is 16–0 and has genuinely looked unbeatable.

He vacated the featherweight title after knocking out Max Holloway, moved to lightweight, and knocked out Charles Oliveira to become the undisputed champion. Two legends. Two knockouts. Two weight classes. All before turning 30.

Justin Gaethje finds himself here after a dominant five-round performance against Paddy Pimblett in January — a +200 underdog that night — capturing the interim lightweight belt before most people saw it coming. His last six years read like a veteran’s greatest hits. A win over Michael Chandler, two wins over Rafael Fiziev, a TKO of Dustin Poirier, and losses to Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira. Those last two names are men Topuria has already destroyed. Context matters.

This will be Gaethje’s second attempt to unify an interim belt with the undisputed title. His first ended in a loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov. He’s 37 years old and operating at the peak of what a decorated veteran can offer. The size difference is real. Gaethje is 5’11 to Topuria’s 5’7, but the reach gap is just one inch, and Topuria has never once allowed a size disadvantage to dictate a fight. Holloway is 5’11. Oliveira is 5’10. El Matador simply does not care.

“If size mattered, the elephant would be the king of the jungle.” – Rickson Gracie

The xR% gap is significant. Topuria sits at 71%, a dominant number reflecting a fighter who controls every dimension of a fight. Gaethje checks in at 49%, right at the edge of the red flag zone, which tells you his reckless, high-volume style costs him rounds even when it produces results. He steps into exchanges willingly and takes damage in the process.

The striking numbers reflect exactly that. Topuria lands 4.81 significant strikes per minute with a clean +0.97 differential, has scored seven knockdowns, and absorbs just under four per minute. Gaethje lands a high 6.48 significant strikes per minute — serious volume — but posts a –0.57 differential, absorbing a staggering 7.05 significant strikes per minute. He tends to use his face to defend punches and always has. Even Paddy Pimblett landed 153 significant strikes on him in a losing effort. That absorption rate against Topuria’s power is a deeply concerning combination.

Gaethje has been stopped five times in his UFC career. Topuria has scored seven knockdowns and has never been knocked down once.

The grappling is largely academic. Topuria has scored 11 takedowns at 61% accuracy and defends at a dominant 94%. Gaethje has four career takedowns at 40% accuracy, this fight is likely not going to the mat on his terms. Topuria holds a 79% control rate to Gaethje’s 74%, though neither man is looking to make this a wrestling match.

The model runs it through and delivers an 87% win probability for Ilia Topuria. A full confidence Tier 1 Elite Favorite. His moneyline sits at –500, implying around 83%, and we’re not laying that number. The model agrees he wins. The market agrees he wins. There’s simply no edge on the moneyline.

The outdoor environment is the one wildcard nobody can fully account for. Wind, heat, crowd energy, etc. All of it introduces variance for a fight that under normal conditions looks completely one-sided.

If there’s a prop worth targeting, it’s the under 1.5 rounds currently priced around -105. Topuria is not here to get paid by the round. He wants to make a statement in front of a historic crowd and turn the lights off early. That prop reflects how this fight most likely ends if Topuria gets his hands going, and the –105 price is fair value for that outcome. I haven’t quite gotten there on the under, but I’ll be eyeing it closer to fight night.

For MORE model tale of the tapes and fight reports on this weeks card, head to FightingWithNumbers.com.

Good luck on your bets. Enjoy the violence.

The post First Strike Model Projections For UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs Gaethje appeared first on VSiN.