MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, June 11.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.

1:10 PM Eastern

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins

Marlins starting pitcher Tyler Phillips began the season in the bullpen and has made a smooth transition to a larger role, posting a 2.08 ERA with 0.4 home runs allowed per nine innings as a starter. His ERA drops to 0.98 at home this season. Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly has improved of late, allowing three runs or fewer in five of his past six starts. However, he still owns a 5.71 ERA and a 6.12 fielding independent while allowing two home runs per nine innings and recording only 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings.

Pick: Marlins Moneyline -108

Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -122

St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets

The Cardinals offense has cooled off recently, ranking 25th in scoring since May 1 with just over 3.9 runs per game. They face Mets starting pitcher Christian Scott, who owns a 2.50 ERA with 10.3 strikeouts and 0.3 home runs allowed per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen that ranks sixth in ERA at 3.24.

Cardinals starting pitcher Hunter Dobbins has made two of his three appearances out of the bullpen this season and owns a 2.77 ERA with 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings. He is coming off a 2025 season with the Boston Red Sox in which he posted a 4.13 ERA and a 3.87 fielding independent with 0.9 home runs and 2.5 walks allowed per nine innings.

Pick: Cardinals vs. Mets Under 9 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: 8.3

Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers

Embed from Getty Images

Twins starting pitcher Zebby Matthews owns a 4.15 ERA this season with 1.5 home runs and 2.4 walks allowed per nine innings and should benefit from facing a Tigers lineup that ranks 24th in scoring with four runs per game.

Tigers starting pitcher Keider Montero owns a 3.95 ERA and has done a nice job avoiding self-inflicted mistakes, allowing just 1.1 home runs and 2.2 walks per nine innings.

Pick: Tigers vs. Twins Under 9 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: 8.4

2:10 PM Eastern

Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals

Rangers starting pitcher Kumar Rocker owns a 3.54 ERA this season with 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings and enters in his best form of the year, allowing only six total runs across his last five appearances spanning 28 2/3 innings. He is supported by a bullpen that ranks third in ERA at 3.17.

Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo owns a 3.44 ERA with one home run and 2.9 walks allowed per nine innings. He faces a Rangers lineup that ranks 25th in scoring at four runs per game, while the Royals offense ranks 28th with just over 3.9 runs per game.

Pick: Rangers vs. Royals Under 10 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: 8.9

7:40 PM Eastern

Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox

Braves starting pitcher Martin Perez has pitched to a lot of contact this season, recording only 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings, which could lead to regression from his 3.02 ERA. His 3.95 fielding independent and 3.2 walks per nine innings support that concern.

The White Sox are expected to use Anthony Kay as either their starter or a bulk pitcher. While his 4.40 ERA is respectable, he owns a much higher 5.48 fielding independent with 1.5 home runs and 3.8 walks allowed per nine innings. He faces a Braves lineup that ranks second in road scoring with over 5.9 runs per game.

Pick: Braves Moneyline -115 and Over 8.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Braves -133 and Total 8.7

The post MLB Picks Today: Greg Peterson Best Bets Thursday, June 11 appeared first on VSiN.