Today we wrap up the work week with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:10 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians (-125, 8.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesThe Tigers (29-40) just took two of three against the Twins, dominating yesterday’s series finale 11-0 as -135 home favorites. On the other hand, the Guardians (37-33) just got swept by the Yankees, dropping the series finale 8-4 as +105 home dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Tigers hand the ball to righty Jack Flaherty (1-7, 5.31 ERA) and the Guardians counter with fellow righty Tanner Bibee (1-7, 4.09 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have pounced on the Guardians at a coin-flip price at home, steaming Cleveland up from -110 to -125.
At Circa, the Guardians are taking in 83% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Pros have also hit Cleveland on the run-line (-1.5 at +165), as the Guardians are receiving 55% of spread bets and 88% of spread dollars at Circa.
Friday night favorites are 75-42 (64%) with a 10% ROI this season.
Sweet spot home favorites priced -125 to -140 who made the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous season, like the Guardians here, are 48-23 (68%) with a 19% ROI since 2025.
Cleveland is 19-13 (59%) with a 20% ROI coming off a loss this season, the 5th most profitable bounce back team in MLB.
The Guardians also enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage, as Cleveland was off yesterday and continues a homestand while the Tigers played yesterday and now travel to Progressive Field.
Detroit is 11-24 on the road, the worst road record in MLB.
7:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (-165, 9) at Chicago White Sox
The Dodgers (44-25) just won two of three against the Pirates, taking yesterday’s series finale 8-6 as -180 road favorites. Meanwhile, the White Sox (36-31) just swept an abbreviated two-game set against the Braves, winning the series finale 2-1 as +125 home dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Dodgers send out righty Roki Sasaki (3-3, 4.03 ERA) and the White Sox turn to lefty Anthony Kay (5-1, 4.40 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -135 road favorite and Chicago a +115 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down on the Dodgers laying modest chalk, steaming Los Angeles up from -135 to -165.
At DraftKings, the Dodgers are receiving 93% of moneyline bets and a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Los Angeles is taking in 71% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the road chalk.
Friday night road favorites are 25-11 (69%) with a 20% ROI this season.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their favor is 89-53 (63%) with a 15% ROI this season. Non-division road favorites priced -150 or higher with a win percentage of .610 or greater are 50-21 (70%) with an 8% ROI this season.
Sasaki has pitched well as of late, posting a 1.49 ERA over his last four starts, only giving up 4 earned runs in 24.1 innings pitched.
Meanwhile, Kay has posted a 5.61 ERA at night compared to 2.93 during the day.
10:15 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants (-125, 8.5)
The Cubs (35-34) just dropped two of three against the Rockies but avoided the sweep, winning yesterday’s series finale 9-3 as -160 road favorites. Similarly, the Giants (28-41) just lost two of three against the Nationals but avoided the sweep, winning the series finale 11-10 as -115 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Cubs start righty Javier Assad (3-1, 4.73 ERA) and the Giants go with fellow righty Landen Roupp (5-6, 4.00 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
The public is all over the Cubs, who have the far better won-loss record.
However, despite 60% of moneyline bets at DraftKings backing Chicago we’ve actually seen this line move up further toward San Francisco -110 to -125. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Giants, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, the Giants are receiving only 40% of moneyline bets but 65% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian “fade the trendy dog” bet split in their favor.
Friday night favorites are 75-42 (64%) with a 10% ROI this season.
Friday home favorites priced -150 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Giants here, are 23-12 (66%) with a 17% ROI this season.
The Giants also enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage, as San Francisco was off yesterday and continues a homestand while the Cubs played in Colorado yesterday and now travel to Oracle Park.
Rested home favorites coming off a day off who missed the playoffs the previous season are 18-7 (72%) with a 23% ROI this season.
Assad has posted an 8.00 ERA on the road compared to 0.63 at home.
The Giants are hitting .258 against righties (6th best in MLB) compared to .236 for the Cubs (22nd).
The post Top Picks from the MLB Betting Splits for Friday June 12th appeared first on VSiN.

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