MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, June 14.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.

12:15 PM Eastern

Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

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Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes has had a few slip-ups this season but has still been excellent, posting a 2.84 ERA and a 2.54 fielding independent with 10.5 strikeouts and 1.8 walks per nine innings. Marlins starting pitcher Max Meyer has also been very solid, registering a 2.85 ERA with 9.8 strikeouts and 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings. However, he has significant home-and-road splits, posting a 4.05 ERA on the road compared to a 1.97 ERA at home. He also faces a Pirates lineup that leads the league in scoring at home with 5.6 runs per game.

Pick: Pirates Run Line -1.5 (+135)

Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -1.5 (-102)

1:35 PM Eastern

San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles

Padres starting pitcher Walker Buehler has pitched better than his 4.33 ERA would indicate, as he owns a 3.45 fielding independent with 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings. He is supported by a lineup that ranks last in scoring with 3.8 runs per game but also by a bullpen that ranks second in ERA at 3.11.

Orioles starting pitcher Trevor Rogers has also pitched better than his 6.15 ERA would suggest, as his fielding independent sits at 4.64 with 1.4 home runs and three walks allowed per nine innings.

Pick: Padres Moneyline +110 and Under 9.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Padres -103 and Total 8.6

Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals

While Nationals starter Miles Mikolas owns a rough 5.90 ERA for the season, things have improved as the year has progressed. He has allowed three runs or fewer in 10 of his last 12 appearances, posting a 4.35 ERA with 2.1 walks per nine innings during that span.

Mariners starter Emerson Hancock has allowed just six total runs across his last five starts and owns a 2.74 ERA this season with 8.7 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings.

Pick: Mariners vs. Nationals Under 10 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: 8.8

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Regression appears to be catching up with Blue Jays starter Patrick Corbin, who has allowed nine runs across eight innings in his last two starts, raising his ERA to 4.55. He has also posted an ERA of 5.20 or higher in four of the last five seasons.

While the Yankees are without Aaron Judge, they entered Saturday averaging 4.6 runs per game without him. Yankees starter Will Warren owns a 3.41 ERA and a 3.25 fielding independent with 0.9 home runs allowed and 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. His ERA drops to 2.78 with just 0.3 home runs allowed per nine innings on the road.

Pick: Yankees Moneyline -120

Greg’s Handicap: Yankees -135

1:40 PM Eastern

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets

Braves starter Bryce Elder has been a pleasant surprise this season, posting a 2.66 ERA with only 0.7 home runs and 2.7 walks allowed per nine innings. He also receives plenty of support from a lineup that ranks second in road scoring with 5.8 runs per game and a bullpen that ranks first in ERA at 2.83.

The Mets rank 24th in scoring with four runs per game, while starter Freddy Peralta has struggled to a 4.04 ERA while posting a career-low 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings along with 1.2 home runs and 3.7 walks allowed per nine innings.

Pick: Braves Moneyline +102 and Under 8.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Braves -106 and Total 8.1

Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians

Guardians starter Gavin Williams has been a prolific strikeout pitcher, posting a 3.32 ERA with 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He has been much better at home, registering a 2.64 ERA with one home run allowed per nine innings compared to a 4.04 ERA and nearly 1.7 home runs allowed per nine innings on the road.

Tigers starter Casey Mize has put together an excellent season with a 2.27 ERA and a 2.42 fielding independent, allowing 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings and only 0.4 home runs per nine innings. However, he is supported by a lineup that ranks 26th in road scoring with 3.9 runs per game.

Pick: Guardians Moneyline -111 and Under 7.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -133 and Total 6.9

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds

Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen has endured a rough season, posting a 5.43 ERA with 1.4 home runs allowed and only 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings. His struggles have been amplified on the road, where he owns a 7.44 ERA with 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings.

Reds starter Andrew Abbott has pitched to a lot of contact with only 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings but has lowered his ERA to 4.10 after a shaky start. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in eight consecutive starts and has surrendered just 13 earned runs across 46 innings during that stretch.

Pick: Reds Moneyline -102

Greg’s Handicap: Reds -132

2:10 PM Eastern

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins

Twins starter Taj Bradley owns a 4.02 ERA and features excellent swing-and-miss stuff, recording 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings, though he also issues four walks per nine innings.

Cardinals starter Michael McGreevy pitches to a lot of contact with only 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings but owns a 2.99 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 2.1 walks allowed per nine innings. He is backed by a Cardinals bullpen that has improved throughout the season, ranking ninth in ERA since May 1 at 3.18.

Pick: Twins Moneyline -115 and Under 8.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Twins -136 and Total 8.2

7:20 PM Eastern

Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox

Both offenses have struggled this season, with both teams entering Saturday tied for 26th in scoring at four runs per game. The Red Sox rank last in the American League in home scoring with 3.5 runs per game.

Boston sends Connelly Early to the mound. He owns a 3.30 ERA with 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings and is supported by a bullpen that ranks third in ERA at 3.16. The Rangers rank fourth in bullpen ERA at 3.23 and counter with Nathan Eovaldi, who owns a 4.26 ERA overall with 1.7 home runs allowed per nine innings. However, he has posted a much better 3.39 ERA over his last 11 starts after a shaky beginning to the season.

Pick: Rangers vs. Red Sox Under 9 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: 7.8

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