Top Picks from the MLB Betting Splits for Monday June 2nd

Today we kick off a new week with a smaller than usual 7-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

6:40 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins (-200, 8)

The Rockies (9-50) just got swept by the Mets, falling 5-3 yesterday as +335 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Marlins (23-34) just dropped two of three against the Giants, losing 4-2 yesterday as -105 home dogs.

In tonight’s series opener, the Rockies send out righty German Marquez (1-7, 7.13 ERA) and the Marlins turn to fellow righty Max Meyer (3-4, 4.53 ERA).

This line opened with Miami listed as a -180 home favorite and Colorado a +165 road dog.

Sharps are rushing to the window to fade Colorado, steaming the Marlins up from -180 to -200.

At DraftKings, the Marlins are receiving 84% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” split and further evidence of heavy Pro and Joe support laying the chalk with the home team.

When both teams are below .500, as is the case here, the favorite is 65-36 (64%) with a 5% ROI. When both teams are coming off a loss, the favorite is 37-20 (65%) with a 4% ROI. Big home favorites -175 or more in the opening game of a new series are 48-13 (79%) with a 13% ROI.

The Marlins have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.

Miami has the superior offense, hitting .248 with 232 runs scored compared to Colorado only hitting .215 with 184 runs scored.

Meyer is 2-1 with a 3.48 ERA at home this season. Meanwhile, Marquez is 0-4 with a 9.42 ERA on the road.

Colorado is 3-28 on the road this season, by far the worst in MLB.

Fading Colorado has resulted in a 50-9 record (85%) with a 23% ROI. A $100 bettor fading the Rockies every game this season would be up nearly $1,400.

7:10 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (-115, 9)

The Brewers (32-28) just swept the Phillies, winning 5-2 yesterday as +135 road dogs. Conversely, the Reds (29-31) just dropped two of three against the Cubs, falling 7-3 yesterday as +135 road dogs.

In tonight’s series opener, the Brewers send out righty Aaron Civale (0-1, 6.00 ERA) and the Reds tap fellow righty Brady Singer (6-3, 4.60 ERA).

This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a -125 home favorite and Milwaukee a +105 road dog.

The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this 50/50 split ticket count at DraftKings we’ve seen Cincinnati tumble from -125 to -115.

In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the 50/50 line move we can infer that pro money has sided with the Brewers (+105 to -105). Essentially, smart Brewers money is pushing this game toward a pick’em.

Milwaukee has correlative betting value as a divisional dog and a dog with a high total (9), with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.

Civale posted a 3.00 ERA in two May starts, giving up just 3 earned runs in 9 innings pitched. On the flip side, Singer posted a 6.39 ERA in five May starts, allowing 18 earned runs in 25.1 innings pitched.

Milwaukee has played far better as of late, hitting .288 with a 3.36 ERA over their last ten games compared to the Reds only hitting .251 with a 5.13 ERA.

The Brewers are 3-1 against the Reds this season.

7:40 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (-215, 8.5) at Chicago White Sox

The Tigers (39-21) just took two of three against the Royals, winning 1-0 yesterday as +140 road dogs. On the other hand, the White Sox (18-41) just got swept by the Orioles, falling 3-2 yesterday as +125 road dogs.

In tonight’s series opener, the Tigers hand the ball to righty Jack Flaherty (3-6, 3.94 ERA) and the White Sox counter with fellow righty Jonathan Cannon (2-6, 4.15 ERA).

This line opened with Detroit listed as a -200 road favorite and Chicago a +170 home dog.

Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have laid the wood with the Tigers, steaming Detroit up from -200 to -215. Some shops are even creeping up toward -225.

At DraftKings, the Tigers are receiving 89% of moneyline bets and 94% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Detroit is taking in 76% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy bet discrepancy in favor of the Tigers.

Road favorites -170 or more with line movement in their favor are 30-13 (70%) with a 4% ROI this season. Big favorites -200 or more are 115-38 (75%) with a 5% ROI. If the big -200 favorite or more also made the playoffs the previous season, they improve to 80-24 (77%) with an 8% ROI.

The Tigers have the better bats, hitting .249 with 68 homers and 296 runs scored compared to the White Sox only hitting .221 with 47 homers and 201 runs scored. The Tigers also have the far better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.24 (3rd best in MLB) compared to 4.43 for the White Sox.

The Tigers are 18-13 on the road. The White Sox are 12-15 at home.

Detroit is 3-0 against Chicago this season.

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