On Friday, June 6th, Lorenzo Musetti and Carlos Alcaraz will clash in the 2025 French Open semifinals. This will be the third clay-court meeting between these two this season, and Alcaraz got the better of Musetti in each of the previous two matches. However, Musetti isn’t just going to hand this one over to Alcaraz. The Italian is an elite talent and should believe that he has what it takes to win a major at Roland Garros one day. So, let’s see if he can beat last year’s champion on Court Philippe-Chatrier. Keep reading for a full Musetti versus Alcaraz preview.
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Lorenzo Musetti vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Tuesday, June 3rd at 9:30 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Alcaraz -650, Musetti +475
Spread: Alcaraz -6.5 Games (-125), Musetti +6.5 Games (-105)
Total: Over 34.5 Games (-120), Under 34.5 Games (-115)
How To Watch Lorenzo Musetti vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Where: Stade Roland Garros in Paris, France
When: Friday, June 6th
Channel: TNT / HBO Max
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Carlos Alcaraz Predictions
Alcaraz has a 5-1 record in six career meetings with Musetti, and two of those matches were played this clay season. In the Monte-Carlo finals, Alcaraz beat Musetti 3-6, 6-1, 6-0. Then, in Musetti’s home tournament in Rome, the Spaniard earned a 6-3, 7-6 (4) win over the Italian in the semifinals. That’s two clay-court wins in slow, gritty conditions, meaning Alcaraz is going to feel good about his chances of beating Musetti in Roland Garros. That’s especially true with Alcaraz coming off his best performance of the tournament. The 22-year-old romped Tommy Paul in a 6-0, 6-1, 6-4 beatdown, and he won 48 of his 55 service points in that one. That’s remarkable considering Paul is a top-five returner on tour.
Alcaraz’s run in Paris last year, along with his head-to-head history against Musetti, will probably lead many to backing the Spaniard to cruise against the Italian in this massive semi-final tilt. That Paul performance didn’t hurt, either. But one thing I always remind people — players aren’t defined by their last performance, good or bad. There’s no guarantee the quarter-final version of Alcaraz will show up against Musetti, and that’s the one that will need to show up in order for him to beat the Italian without a hiccup.
There’s no denying that Alcaraz’s explosive athleticism, otherworldly strength and outrageous variety makes him a force on this surface. He already won a French Open title last year, and a lot of people will tell you he’s going to win a heck of a lot more — and could get his second this year. But Alcaraz still plays shaky games way too often. He has already done it against Fabian Marozsan, Damir Dzumhur and Ben Shelton in this very tournament, and all three of those guys took a set off him. Well, any sloppiness against Musetti will turn into a set won for the Italian.
There’s a real argument to be made that Musetti is a top-five player in the world on this surface. He made the final in Monte-Carlo and the semifinals in Madrid and Rome. Now, he’s in the Roland Garros semifinals. We’re talking about three deep, deep runs at the biggest clay-court events on the calendar, and he took a set off Alcaraz in that Monte-Carlo final. And what nobody seems to talk about is that he might have done more had he not gotten injured. Musetti was limping to the finish line in that match, and Alcaraz barely had to work to lift that trophy.
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Musetti just has the game to frustrate Alcaraz. The Italian had a top-10 break percentage (26.3%) on the ATP Tour heading into Roland Garros, and he’s going to have his looks at breaking here. He’s really good at getting balls back in play, especially when using that one-handed backhand to block, chip or slice them back. And when he gets his chances to return second serves, he’s going to be aggressive. That might not mean clean winners, but it could be angled shots that get Alcaraz all the way off the court. From there, Musetti should find ways to win points.
Musetti also has the ability to grind from the back of the court, which is what I thought Paul would be able to do last match. But Paul wasn’t healthy heading into the quarterfinals, and he also isn’t as talented as Musetti. The Italian should do a better job of making Alcaraz hit extra balls, and that’s when the Spaniard tends to make the wrong decisions.
We could also see Alcaraz mishandle some of Musetti’s big topspin shots. There are days in which the Spaniard will clobber high-balls, but there are also days in which changing up the height can lead to some framed shots — and others that go right into the net. There’s still a steadiness to the 22-year-old’s game that is missing, and there’s also a scary absence of consistency. Musetti, who is one of the best tacticians on the ATP Tour, can take advantage of those Alcaraz flaws.
I’m fully aware that fading Alcaraz is a scary proposition on clay. I have admired his game for the longest time, and I have backed him a ton throughout his career. But he’s still a player that can leave you puzzled from time to time, making it hard to believe he can win three consecutive sets against a player as good as Musetti. The Italian is trying to show the world that he’s a legitimate threat to win these tournaments, and he’s going to view this as an opportunity to prove that. And honestly, I’m not sure he’ll be as nervous here as he was in Rome. There’s obviously a pressure that comes with playing in the semifinals of a major, but playing in front of your friends, family and all of your fans can also take its toll mentally. Being freed of that pressure could do wonders for him.
Musetti just needs to have a decent day as a server here. Heading into Roland Garros, his hold percentage was up at a career-high 79.9%. It’ll take a good day when it comes to first serves to hang around with Alcaraz. But there’s no reason he can’t be sharp with the ball on his racquet, as he should be used to big moments by now.
Also, it’s worth noting that Musetti only won 26.9% of his second serve points against Alcaraz in Rome, yet he was still right in that match. That number is outrageously low, especially considering he was winning 54.4% of his second serve points heading into the French Open. Some better luck there could make a big difference.
Pick: Musetti To Win A Set (-141)
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