On Sunday, June 8th, the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Indiana Pacers in what suddenly feels like a must-win Game 2 at the Paycom Center. Indiana stole Game 1 of the 2024-25 NBA Finals, throwing a wrench into everybody’s series plans. Keep reading for odds, predictions and best bets for this exciting showdown, but make sure you also check out the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for the rest of our written content. We have a ton of people breaking down the action. We’re also talking ball regularly on our live programming, so now is a great time to be a VSiN subscriber.
How To Watch Pacers vs. Thunder – Game 2
Where: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
When: 8:00 pm ET on Sunday, June 8th
Channel: ABC
Pacers vs. Thunder Odds – Game 2
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of Friday, June 6th at 7:00 pm ET)
Moneyline: Thunder -520, Pacers +390
Spread: Thunder -11 (-112), Pacers +11 (-108)
Total: Over 227.5 (-110), Under 227.5 (-110)
Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction – Game 2
The Thunder were favored by 9.5 or 10 pretty much everywhere heading into Game 1. However, after blowing a 15-point lead and losing outright, Oklahoma City is now favored by 11 in Game 2. The oddsmakers aren’t convinced by what they saw from Indiana on Thursday, and it’s understandable when considering the fact that the Pacers didn’t lead until there was 0.3 seconds left. Conventional wisdom would suggest that the Thunder will streamroll their opponent in a desperation spot if they just clean some things up and play a full 48 minutes. The “Zig Zag Theory” has also been a profitable approach throughout this postseason, so that’s also on the Oklahoma City side. But I’m not a conventional thinker, and I’m taking the points with Indiana again.
I know the Thunder led for almost the entirety of Game 1, and they also happened to have double-digit leads for most of it. However, there was a lot to pick at when looking at the Oklahoma City performance.
For starters, the Thunder got out-rebounded 56-39 in the game. That probably wasn’t what Mark Daigneault was hoping for after making the decision to bring Isaiah Hartenstein off the bench. He surely knew he was giving up some tenacity on the glass, but the Pacers aren’t a good rebounding team. So, Oklahoma City willingly let Indiana hide one of its major weaknesses. Daigneault probably will go to the same look in Game 2. The Thunder were up 12 points at halftime, so a good argument can be made that it worked. But it is interesting to monitor moving forward, as Chet Holmgren and Hartenstein combined to play only 41 minutes in the game. They ended up going even smaller than expected, and it’s just not clear what they actually want to do. And Daigneault seems like a guy that is a little psyched out by what the Pacers are able to do as a run-and-gun offense.
Oklahoma City’s offensive execution was also disastrous in Game 1. The Thunder only scored 107.8 points per 100 possessions in the opener, and they might be getting hammered right now if 11 points off turnovers — which isn’t even all that good — didn’t help the team reach a respectable 110 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander did score 38 points in the game, but his 14-of-30 shooting wasn’t all that inspiring. Meanwhile, Jalen Williams and Holmgren combined to shoot 8 for 28 from the field. Overall, the Thunder looked way too content to isolate, and there was a lot of standing around. Granted, this is team that only had an assist percentage of 60.2% during the regular season, which was good for just 26th in the NBA. But the ball needs to move around a little more, especially against this defense. I understand a lot of their game plan was designed to attack Tyrese Haliburton’s questionable defense, but it’s possible they’re spending too much time hunting that matchup. There are other ways to attack this Pacers team.
The Thunder just didn’t seem like they were playing their game, and some of that probably has to do with their lack of experience. And that lack of experience goes all the way from the roster to the coaching staff. That’s not something that can be taken lightly. Heading into the series, I thought that Rick Carlisle versus Daigneault was going to be a big edge for the Pacers. And it already feels like we saw that in Game 1. Well, Carlisle now gets to pour over the Game 1 film to find ways to prey on some of the Thunder insecurities. And for what it’s worth, Indiana is 4-2 both straight-up and against the spread in Game 2s under Carlisle. The Pacers are also 58-32-1 ATS when playing only their second game in five days under Carlisle. There’s just so many trends that show that Indiana is dangerous when the team has time to rest and Carlisle has time to prepare. I can’t just ignore that heading into Game 2 because of the motivation for the home team.
It should also be acknowledged that Haliburton was a no-show before hitting the game-winning jumper in Game 1. He’s very likely going to do better than 14 points and six assists as an offensive engine — especially as a quick-learner that processes the game at a Hall-of-Fame level. Also, as a whole, the Pacers can’t be counted on to cough the ball up 25 times in Game 2. This was the third-best team in the league in turnover rate during the regular season, and Indiana has also done a great job of taking care of the rock in the playoffs. The Pacers just won’t be as careless in Game 2, and that’s what really should scare this Thunder team. There’s a whole other level Indiana can reach offensively and the pressure is off after having stolen home-court advantage. A team with this type of shot-making and high-level coaching playing with house money should be dangerous against an Oklahoma City squad that suddenly faces all kinds of pressure heading into Game 2.
Bet: Pacers +11 (-108)
Pacers vs. Thunder Player Prop – Game 2
I mentioned it in my analysis of the side, but I’m expecting more offensive production from Haliburton in Game 2. And I ultimately think we’ll see a lot of that in the assists column. Haliburton only had six dimes in Game 1, but he did have 13.0 potential assists and 9.0 adjusted assists. His passes were leading to good scoring opportunities, and he probably would have done more damage if the Pacers weren’t throwing the ball all over the place.
I know Indiana is running a lot through Andrew Nembhard, looking to give Haliburton some rest against an Oklahoma City team that loves to pressure the ball. But Haliburton won’t have a usage rate of 17.0% every game of this series. His playoff usage rate is 21.9%. Carlisle is going to put the ball in the hands of his best playmaker, and the Thunder won’t be able to shut his water off every night. Well, I think we’ll see him make some plays for his teammates in Game 2. The Pacers won’t be as tense after having done their job of stealing a game in Oklahoma City, and we could see a faster pace overall in this game.
Pick: Haliburton Over 8.5 Assists (+120)
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