UFC 316 Predictions Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley:

VSiN analyst Britton Hess offers his UFC 316 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.

BEST BETS HISTORY
Last Week: 2-3 -1.5 Units (-28.3% ROI)
Since 2020: 718-687 (+188.77 Units, 10.83% ROI)

PICK’EM HISTORY
Last Week: 4-5 (44.44%)
Article History: 387-253-1 (60.47%)

*All Odds via DraftKings unless otherwise noted

Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili (-285) vs “Suga” Sean O’Malley (+230)

Over 4.5 Rounds (-280) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+210)
Bantamweight Championship

Merab Dvalishvili has won 12 consecutive fights and is favored to rise in the record books with his 13th. Despite the impressive win streak, Dvalishvili has been the underdog in his last two title fights and three of his last four bouts overall. On January 18th, I was in the building as he took on Umar Nurmagomedov, and Dvalishvili’s limitless cardio and high fight IQ won the day decisively. He employed his usual game plan: win with grappling, land striking volume, don’t chase the KO, and most importantly, constant pressure never allowing an opponent to get their bearings straight. 

The story when he defeated Sean O’Malley to take the belt was similar, albeit maintaining control after takedowns was even easier. He has landed 5+ takedowns in each of his last four fights, including a three-round bout versus former Olympic gold medalist wrestler Henry Cejudo. He is 12-2 in the UFC and has landed an average of 5.89 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage. This number is even more impressive when you consider he went a full 15 minutes versus Jose Aldo without landing a single takedown. His striking numbers are good enough for a fighter with his advantages in grappling. He has a +1.85 significant strike per minute differential because it is hard to get hit when you are in top control. He has always lacked power, but that has not been an issue because he is rarely in prolonged stand-up exchanges. He has built a spectacular career for a guy who started in the UFC 0-2. 

Sean O’Malley is stealing headlines ahead of this title fight because of the changes he has made to his lifestyle. No longer smoking marijuana, no longer spending countless hours chasing likes on social media, the “new” Sean O’Malley is a disciplined fighter ready to do whatever it takes to reclaim his bantamweight championship. Or at least that is what he wants you to believe. I am not certain a few months of highly publicized changes are enough to alter his fortunes in this matchup. He lost to Dvalishvili last time they fought because Merab was able to take O’Malley down, and Sean was not able to get back up. O’Malley’s striking power is legendary in this division, and it is always a threat. That said, the last time these guys fought, Dvalishvili could punish O’Malley every time he got overly aggressive. I believe the result of this fight will be similar. I expect Dvalishvili to hold onto his bantamweight title. 

FIGHT WINNER: Merab Dvalishvili
UFC 316 BEST BET: Parlay piece, see below

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Julianna Pena (+525) vs Kayla Harrison (-750)

Over 4.5 Rounds (+145) | Under 4.5 Rounds (-188)
Women’s Bantamweight Championship

Julianna Pena is either very good or very lucky. She is 11-5 as a pro fighter, 8-3 in the UFC, and a two-time women’s bantamweight belt holder. In 2021, she shocked the world by defeating Amanda Nunes to take the strap as a +700 underdog. She won that fight with a rear-naked choke submission and totally upended the division.. However, she lost her rematch via decision and was inactive for two years. Her comeback fight was a title shot versus Raquel Pennington, a fight she won via split decision, again as an underdog. Her strength of wins is as good as anyone in the division. She has shared the ring with multiple future Hall of Fame talents. Her striking defense stands out. She only gets hit 2.5 times per minute in the cage. However, she has a huge weakness when it comes to takedown defense, with a career defense rate of 23%. This number is a major red flag when facing off against Kayla Harrison. 

Kayla Harrison is a former judo Olympic champion and has wasted no time putting those skills on display in the UFC. She is 2-0 in the organization, with neither fight being particularly close. Prior to coming to the UFC, she was a PFL women’s lightweight champion, which speaks to just how big Harrison is for the bantamweight division. Harrison is 18-1 as a professional mixed martial artist, with the loss coming to a fighter that she has previously beaten twice. She came over to the UFC because she wanted to test herself against the absolute best mixed martial artists on the planet. If she wins this fight, her wish will come true, as Amanda Nunes announced she is going to come out of retirement to face the winner of this matchup. I fully expect Harrison’s takedowns to be the story of this fight. One way or another, her brute strength will lead to a finish. 

FIGHT WINNER: Kayla Harrison
UFC 316 BEST BET: Kayla Harrison wins inside the distance (-175) vs Pena, Risk 1.75 Units to WIn 1

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Kelvin Gastelum (+300) vs Joe Pyfer (-380)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-130) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+100)
Middleweight

Kelvin Gastelum is a fairly active fighter who has a well-rounded skill set. But if you have been reading these columns, you know my biggest critique of Gastelum is that he is too small for this division and should have committed to welterweight a long time ago. He has had some legendary fights against championship-level middleweights. However, in recent years, Gastelum has been on the wrong end of more fights than he would like. Since 2019, he has just a 3-6 record. His base is wrestling, and he has fast hands, so he is always a dangerous opponent, but he struggles to tie it all together over the course of a full fight. 

Joe Pyfer has been humbled once by a middleweight veteran, Jack Hermansson. I believe he has learned from that experience. Pyfer is a great wrestler, but he has gained fans because of his explosive hands. I think that he has the potential to win this fight going away if he is patient and avoids being overly aggressive. Physically, he will be the bigger and stronger fighter, and I also believe he will have the better cardio. 

FIGHT WINNER: Joe Pyfer
UFC 316 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, see below

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Mario Bautista (+154) vs Patchy Mix (-185)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+145)
Bantamweight

Mario Bautista is on an impressive seven-fight winning streak. He is on the short list for a title shot, especially if he is able to get his hand raised versus Mix. But his last three fights have gone to a decision, and his last victory versus Jose Aldo was a bit controversial due to the amount of stalling Bautista employed. He basically clinched and held on for as long as possible to avoid prolonged striking exchanges with the former featherweight champion. He does have a high fight IQ, good hands, and enough grappling skills to be dangerous. Seven UFC wins in a row is a streak that is hard to ignore. This will be the toughest test he has faced in his career. 

Patchy Mix is 20-1 and making his UFC debut. He was the most recent Bellator bantamweight champion before the organization disbanded. He defeated UFC veterans Kyoji Horiguchi and Sergio Pettis in that organization. Overall, he has faced elite competition. Mix is a world-class submission artist, and 13 of his career wins have come via sub. His stand-up game will be tested in this matchup, but if he is able to get this fight to take place where he is most comfortable, he has a real chance to win via finish. 

FIGHT WINNER: Patchy Mix
UFC 316 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, see below

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Vicente Luque (+220) vs Kevin Holland (-270)

Over 1.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+135)
Welterweight

Vicente Luque grew up in New Jersey, so he will be greeted by a friendly crowd at this event, even if he is fighting fan favorite Kevin Holland. Luque is 16-6 in the UFC and an equal opportunity finisher with slick submission skills and hands that can turn the lights out. He fought in New Jersey in March of 2024, and the fight did not go his way. He will be looking to rebound here. I believe current betting lines are completely disrespectful, given how inconsistent Kevin Holland has been throughout his career. 

Kevin Holland is the most active fighter on the UFC roster and has already fought twice in 2025. Holland is also an equal opportunity finisher, but is a little less polished as a grappler than his opponent. At 170 pounds, Holland is very good, and his last two losses came while fighting up at middleweight. As a welterweight, he is very long and can use his reach advantage to put opponents on the back foot. His length also allows him to slip in submissions from all sorts of nontraditional positions. I like Kevin Holland, but I don’t trust him, and I cannot recommend backing him at this price. 

FIGHT WINNER: Kevin Holland
UFC 316 BEST BET: Pass

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Bruno Silva (+470) vs Joshua Van (-650)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-154) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+120)
Flyweight

Bruno Silva is a game fighter who has established a reputation as an entertainer in his seven-fight UFC career. He has three wins via knockout in the organization and another via submission. He was fearless when he took on Manel Kape in December, but ultimately was knocked out in that fight. Still, Silva is confident he can strike with anyone, and he will be putting that theory to the test versus the surging Joshua Van.

Joshua Van is 23 years old and already 6-1 in the UFC. He has a limitless gas tank and pristine striking. His use of body shots is exemplary and compounds the cardio advantage he has versus every opponent. I expect this fight to be competitive in round one, but I think Van will separate in rounds two or three.  He has one knockout in the organization, but I do not necessarily think he will sell out for the finish versus someone as dangerous as Silva.

FIGHT WINNER: Joshua Van
UFC 316 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, see below

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Azamat Murzakanov (-625) vs Brendson Ribeiro (+455)

Over 1.5 Rounds (+124) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-160)
Light Heavyweight

Azamat Murzakanov is technically gifted and is blessed with finishing power. He is 14-0 as a pro and 4-0 in the UFC.. Brendson Ribeiro is aggressive and has power of his own, but his sloppiness will be his downfall in this fight. He is too willing to take damage in pursuit of a finish.. I expect Murzakanov to win via knockout, probably in the first round. 

FIGHT WINNER: Azamat Murzakanov
UFC 316 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See below

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Serghei Spivac (-130) vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+110)

Over 2.5 Rounds (+120) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-154)
Heavyweight

Serghei Spivac has been up and down throughout his UFC career. For a minute, it looked like he would be a title contender, but he has since shown his limitations. He is a good wrestler, but his striking is still underdeveloped. He needs to get fights to the ground if he is going to find the finish. Waldo Cortes-Acosta is big and athletic. Inexplicably, he has lacked true one-punch knockout power. He found the finish versus the undersized Ryan Spann in his last fight. It will be a much tougher task versus the veteran Serghei Spivac. I also expect Spivac to test Cortes-Acosta’s grappling in ways he has never seen. 

FIGHT WINNER: Serghei Spivac
UFC 316 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, see below.

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Khaos Williams (-192) vs Andreas Gustafsson (+160)

Over 1.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+124)
Welterweight

Khaos Williams has all the power in the world, but in his last fight, his lack of technique and fight IQ was exposed by Gabriel Bonfim. Versus strikers who will stand and bang, Williams is a world beater, but versus technicians, he looks out of place. Andreas Gustafsson is a finisher making his UFC debut after a successful fight in Contender Series. He is 11-2 with eight wins via knockout. This fight should test both fighters’ chins, and in these types of situations, it’s hard not to be confident in Williams. 

FIGHT WINNER: Khaos Williams
UFC 316 BEST BET: Pass

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Ariane Lipski da Silva  (+410) vs Wang Cong (-550)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-140) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+110)
Women’s Flyweight

I thought Ariane Lipski was in trouble in this fight before she missed weight by six pounds. But her scale issue has the potential to matter a lot in this matchup. Cong is an elite kickboxer, but can get beat on the ground. We saw Ketlen Vieira dominate a fight after missing weight last week, and I am a bit worried we could see the same thing here. That said, if Cong can keep space, she will pick Lipski apart because she is a significantly more efficient striker. I still like Cong to win, but I have a sour taste in my mouth due to the extreme weight miss. 

FIGHT WINNER: Wang Cong
UFC 316 BEST BET: Pass

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Joosang Yoo (-600) vs Jeka Saragih (+440)

Over 1.5 Rounds (-135) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+105)
Featherweight

Joosang Yoo is making his UFC debut after a successful run on the regional circuit. His opponent, Jeka Saragih, is not much better than the regional opponents Yoo has seen in the past, so this should be a fairly straightforward transition to the biggest show in mixed martial arts. These types of prices for unproven fighters are not something I am generally interested in backing. Saragih is a good striker and can surprise Yoo with his unorthodox style. 

FIGHT WINNER: Joosang Yoo
UFC 316 BEST BET: Pass

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Quillan Salkilld (-550) vs Yanal Ashmouz (+410)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-180) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+140)
Lightweight

Salkilld looked great in his UFC debut. He won via knockout in 19 seconds, so there aren’t too many notes to give. Those types of performances are rarely repeated. He is now fighting Yanal Ashmouz, who can present some unique challenges. Ashmouz is truly a mixed martial artist and unafraid to take the fight into deep waters through grappling. He also has knockout power in his hands. I think Salkilld will be faster and overall more athletic, but I have a tough time taking him at this price. 

FIGHT WINNER: Quillan Salkilld
UFC 316 BEST BET: Pass

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MarQuel Mederos (-205) vs Mark Choinski (+170)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+145)
Lightweight

MarQuel Mederos is 2-0 in the UFC and looking to build on that streak. He fought veterans in his first two fights, but now he is playing that role as Mark Choinski is making his debut. Mederos is a good striker and very strong. He has finishing potential but is still raw as a fighter. Choinski is taking this fight on short notice. He has good but not great fighting experience in smaller organizations. But he is 8-0, and the confidence that comes with an unblemished record is hard to shake. 

FIGHT WINNER: MarQuel Mederos
UFC 316 BEST BET: Pass

UFC 316 BEST BETS RECAP:

  • Parlay: Patchy Mix + Spivac/Cortes-Acosta Fight Does Not Go the Distance (+133)
  • Parlay: Josh Van/Azamat Murzakanov/Joe Pyfer/Merab Dvalishvili (+123)
  • Kayla Harrison Wins Inside the Distance (-175) vs Pena

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