U.S. Open

The 2025 U.S. Open will be the first at Oakmont since 2016 and the sport’s top players and biggest names have changed a lot in that span. Dustin Johnson won by three shots last time the event was held here, as Jim Furyk, Shane Lowry, and Scott Piercy all tied for second at 1-under. The USGA tries to make the U.S. Open as grueling as possible and typically succeeds, as the winning score has been 10-under or better just four times since Tiger Woods’ 12-under rampage at Pebble Beach in 2000.

Articles and social media posts around the world have highlighted the thick, high, brutal rough, so hitting the fairway is going to be paramount this week. But, what are some of the other stats to know and watch closely? And how could that knowledge arm you with some good bets for placement markets and other props?

Previewing Oakmont

A lot will be made of the distance with this par 70 course, but that probably shouldn’t cloud your judgment too much on who to play this week. The two par 5s are both over 600 yards, so that adds to the distance, plus there are three par 3s at 200+ yards, including the ridiculous 289-yard 8th hole.

There are also two par 4s in excess of 500 yards and another couple that are close to it. While eagles will be virtually impossible to come by this week, players should still get to the dance floor in two shots on most of the long holes or at least be set up for manageable par putts, so long as they don’t get buried in the thick stuff.

Distance is always good, but accuracy is better this week. Distance with accuracy means you’ll have a shot to win.

The other thing about this course is that the green complexes are large and slick, so putts are going to run and run until gravity or something off the green stops them. There are rain chances on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday that could soften the course, so keep an eye on the weather and also the timing of the rain. Some players might get more of a respite than others, as a Stimpmeter of 15 is possible by some reports this week.

So, what are the stats that matter most this week at the U.S. Open? After analyzing the course, these are the five stats I am looking at the closest:

  • Driving Accuracy
  • Approaches from >200 Yards
  • Fairway Proximity
  • Approach Putt Performance
  • 3-Putt Avoidance

Par will be a great score on most of the holes this week. I thought about including rough proximity, but that could be a bit short-sighted, since this rough is so much more hellacious than most courses. I think Approaches from >200 Yards is interesting because I think we could see more iron-iron first and second shots on this course as guys leave the driver in the bag in hopes of staying straighter off the tee. Also, we’re going to have a lot of 200+ iron shots, both on par 3s off the tee and on the long par 4s and 5s.

U.S. Open Predictions: Top 5, Top 10, Top 20

Here are some thoughts on players I like in the placement markets:

Top 5: Collin Morikawa (+360)

Morikawa ranks second on tour in driving accuracy percentage at nearly 73%. He’s also top 20 in fairway proximity, so as long as he keeps it in the short grass, he should be able to set himself up pretty nicely. He’s right on the tour average in approach putt performance and 3-putt avoidance. His long irons are a bit of a worry, as he’s barely inside the top 50 in approaches from 200+ and he hasn’t had a lot of strong finishes this year, but his skill set is a decent fit for the course.

Top 10: Keegan Bradley (+500)

Bradley might not be a bad bet for a top-five finish at +1100 per DraftKings, and surely you can shop around and probably find a better number. Keegs is just inside the top 50 in driving accuracy and top-five in approach putting. He’s also been in pretty strong form this season with six top-15 finishes. Most U.S. Open courses have given him fits. He missed the cut here back in 2016, but he’s a far more consistent player now.

Top 20: Emiliano Grillo (+650)

Grillo at +1800 for a top-10 finish is kind of intriguing as well. The recent results have been pretty good for Grillo, with three straight top-25 finishes as he enters his first major of the season. He’s 24th on tour in driving accuracy and just narrowly outside the top 30 in proximity. His wedge play has been fantastic, as he’s in the top 20 in approaches from 125-150, 50-125, and 100-125. He’s 40th in fairway proximity and fifth in 3-putt avoidance. A lot of his metrics seem to line up well here. He’s also a slight plus price to make the cut if you want to simplify it. He’s also worth a look at +450 for top South American finisher.

U.S. Open Predictions: First-Round Leader

Daniel Berger (+7500)

I don’t think Berger can hold up over 72 holes, but he could certainly play well for the first 18. Berger is 12th in SG: Total, 17th in SG: Off The Tee, and 23rd in SG: Approach. He’s 12th in driving accuracy and ranks in the top 25 in approaches from >200 yards, as well as 30th in fairway proximity. His putter has been really problematic and so that’s why he’s priced the way he is despite some strong tee-to-green numbers. But, for a guy that puts it in the fairway and ranks 35th in GIR% and 26th in scrambling, including 10th in scrambling from the rough, he can absolutely give himself a chance by making a few putts.

For more U.S. Open content, check out the upcoming edition of Long Shots and Wes Reynolds’ U.S. Open Preview, which both drop on Tuesday.

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