The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, June 17, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* CHICAGO CUBS momentum after series vs. PIT: 22-10 (68.8%) +11.74 handle, ROI: 36.7%     
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-150 vs. MIL) 

Trend: BAL is 16-3 (+14.41 handle) in the last 19 Divisional Games with starter Dean Kremer
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+101 at TB) 

* This season, teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 74-157 for -37.85 handle when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -16.4%.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+199 at NYY) 

* Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 302-265 (53.3%) for +26.35 handle and a ROI of 4.6% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-120 vs. AZ)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

The quickest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 510-429 for +3.55 handle and an ROI of 0.4% so far in the regular season. To get a full perspective on the advantage of this strategy, playing almost every MLB game on the board, the average MLB bettor, now using it and playing it would theoretically be down over -55.30 handle.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MIAMI, COLORADO, TORONTO, MINNESOTA, ATLANTA, BALTIMORE, ST LOUIS, TEXAS, CHICAGO CUBS, BOSTON, SAN FRANCISCO, HOUSTON, SAN DIEGO 

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 26-29 for -12.20 handle when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -22.2% and it’s proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+123 vs. STL)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 70-90 for -21.78 handle when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -13.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (-137 vs KC), CHICAGO CUBS (-150 vs. MIL), HOUSTON (-121 at ATH), SAN DIEGO (+182 at LAD)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 74-157 for -37.85 handle when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -16.4%. This is the double whammy scenario to avoid.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+199 at NYY) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 handle. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 54-21 for +7.64 handle. This remains an unusual winning year for this angle.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-248 vs. LAA)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 handle. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a VERY strong start, 82-24 for +19.67 handle, an ROI of 18.6%.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-193 vs. PIT) 

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 handle in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are unusually positive, 55-21 for +7.02 handle.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-193 vs. PIT)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 handle. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 handle), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025. For the season, the record is now 187-206 for +14.12 handle.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+153 vs. PHI), COLORADO (+167 at WSH), MINNESOTA (-102 at CIN), BALTIMORE (+101 at TB), BOSTON (+149 at SEA), SAN DIEGO (+182 at LAD) 

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 handle (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but are now nearly positive at 157-176 for -4.04 handle.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-102 at CIN), BALTIMORE (+101 at TB) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 handle, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 96-97 for +3.1 handle (ROI +1.6%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 handle. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (52-45, +8.51 handle) are somewhat surprising.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – CINCINNATI (-120 vs. MIN)
3+ games – PHILADELPHIA (-188 at MIA), TAMPA BAY (-123 vs. BAL), ATHLETICS (-101 vs. HOU), LA DODGERS (-226 vs. SD) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 handle, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 handle (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far, it is 107-81 for +0.97 handle, having recovered from a slow start.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-137 vs. KC), BOSTON (+149 at SEA) 

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 handle over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it has cooled lately after a strong start, 54-47 for -5.89 handle.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-248 vs. LAA), TORONTO (-120 vs. AZ), MINNESOTA (-102 at CIN)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:

–  2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 handle – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 handle – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 handle, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 handle – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 handle – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 handle, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the ‘23 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 handle and an ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, CINCINNATI 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 handle and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): TORONTO, SEATTLE 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 handle and an ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 handle and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, TORONTO, CINCINNATI, ST LOUIS, SAN FRANCISCO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 handle and an ROI of +7.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): STL-CWS, MIL-CHC, HOU-ATH 

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 378-291 for +49.24 handle and a ROI of 7.4% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-137 vs. KC)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 298-264 but for -75.32 handle and a ROI of -13.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-120 vs. AZ), CINCINNATI (-124 vs. MIN), SAN FRANCISCO (-158 vs. CLE) 

MLB Series Betting System #8: Home favorites opening up an interleague series have gone 141-72 but for +2.29 handle and an ROI of 1.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-193 vs. PIT), TORONTO (-120 vs. AZ), CINCINNATI (-124 vs. MIN), SAN FRANCISCO (-158 vs. CLE) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1784-2280 (43.9%) for -207.48 handle and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, NY METS, MINNESOTA, KANSAS CITY, ST LOUIS, CLEVELAND, ARIZONA, LA ANGELS, BALTIMORE, BOSTON, HOUSTON 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3659-3209 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -494.07 handle and a ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, TAMPA BAY, LA DODGERS 

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 1038-898 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +12.45 handle for backers and an ROI of 0.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-182 vs. BOS), WASHINGTON (-205 vs. COL) 

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 536-457 (54%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +15.42 handle, for an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-120 vs. AZ), ATLANTA (-136 vs. NYM), SEATTLE (-182 vs. BOS) 

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 302-265 (53.3%) for +26.35 handle and an ROI of 4.6% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-120 vs. AZ)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 65-134 skid (-36.77 handle, ROI: -18.5%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-205 vs. COL) 

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-19 (+12.01 handle, ROI: 32.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 78-162 (-61.88 handle, ROI: -25.8%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-205 vs. COL) 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 224-228 run (+25.25 handle, ROI: 5.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (-205 vs. COL), NY YANKEES (-260 vs. LAA), KANSAS CITY (+113 at TEX), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+123 vs. STL) 

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 204-140 in their last 344 tries (+22.24 handle, ROI: 6.5%).
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+149 at SEA) 

Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 27-60 (-10.81 handle, ROI: -12.4%) in their last 87 tries.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (+149 at SEA) 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA ANGELS +199 (+28 diff), SAN DIEGO +182 (+27), COLORADO +167 (+17), NY METS +113 (+17), BOSTON +149 (+16), PITTSBURGH +157 (+15) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOUSTON -121 (+23 diff), TAMPA BAY -123 (+22) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOU-ATH UNDER 11 (-1.0), STL-CWS UNDER 9 (-0.9), MIN-CIN UNDER 9 (-0.7), KC-TEX UNDER 8.5 (-0.7)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(901) PHILADELPHIA (43-29) at (902) MIAMI (28-42)
Trend: Under the total is 21-12-2 (+7.80 handle) in Phillies road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-MIA (o/u at 8.5)

Trend: Cal Quantrill is 21-25 (+9.34 handle) as an underdog of +135 or more in the last five seasons
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MIAMI (+153 vs. PHI) 

(903) COLORADO (15-57) at (904) WASHINGTON (30-42)
Trend: WSH is 5-15 (-13.54 handle) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-205 vs. COL) 

(905) NEW YORK-NL (45-27) at (906) ATLANTA (31-39)
Trend: Under the total is 11-3 (+7.70 handle) when NYM is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-ATL (o/u at 8.5)

(907) MILWAUKEE (39-34) at (908) CHICAGO-NL (44-28)
Trend: CHC is 38-18 (+12.91 handle) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-150 vs. MIL) 

(913) BALTIMORE (30-41) at (914) TAMPA BAY (40-32)
Trend: BAL is 16-3 (+14.41 handle) in the last 19 Divisional Games with starter Dean Kremer
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+101 at TB) 

(915) KANSAS CITY (34-38) at (916) TEXAS (36-36)
Trend: Under the total is 27-9 (+17.10 handle) in Rangers’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-TEX (o/u at 8.5)

(917) BOSTON (38-36) at (918) SEATTLE (36-35)
Trend: Walker Buehler is 16-5 vs. AL teams (+9.58 handle) since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+149 at SEA)

Trend: SEA is 19-26 (-16.71 handle) in night games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-182 vs BOS) 

(921) PITTSBURGH (29-44) at (922) DETROIT (46-27)
Trend: Under the total is 23-10-2 (+12.00 handle) in Pirates’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-DET (o/u at 8) 

(923) ARIZONA (36-35) at (924) TORONTO (38-33)
Trend: TOR is 23-12 (+10.55 handle) on the run line in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+1.5 vs AZ) 

(927) ST LOUIS (37-35) at (928) CHICAGO-AL (23-49)
Trend: Over the total is 25-12 (+11.80 handle) in Cardinals’ night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): STL-CWS (o/u at 9) 

(929) CLEVELAND (35-35) at (930) SAN FRANCISCO (41-31)
Trend: Under the total is 32-18-1 (+12.20 handle) when SF is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-SF (o/u at 7)

Series #11: Houston at Athletics, Mon 6/16-Thu 6/19
Trend: The Athletics are 10-26 (27.8%, -8.65 handle) in their last 36 games vs. Houston
–  The ROI on this trend is -24%.
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-101 vs. HOU)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

CHICAGO CUBS
Momentum after series vs. PITTSBURGH: 22-10 (68.8%) +11.74 handle, ROI: 36.7%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday, June 17 vs. Milwaukee
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-150 vs. MIL) 

PITTSBURGH 
Letdown after series vs. CHICAGO CUBS: 13-19 (40.6%) -2.94 handle, ROI: -9.2%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday, June 17, at Detroit
Trend Match (SLIGHT FADE): PITTSBURGH (+157 at DET)

The post MLB Top Picks Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends Tuesday, June 17 appeared first on VSiN.