The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, June 22, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Seth Lugo is 6-16 (-11.82 units) on the road against teams with a winning record since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-112 at SD) 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 302-337 but for +79.34 units and a ROI of 12.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+167 at NYY), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+168 at TOR), MILWAUKEE (+113 at MIN) 

Trend: CLEVELAND is on an 18-4 (81.8%, +12.99 units) run versus the Athletics dating back to April 2022.
–  The ROI on this trend is 59%.
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-125 at ATH)

* Since the start of the 2024 season, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 289-186 for +63.33 units, a ROI of 13.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-115 vs. DET), NY METS (-105 at PHI)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

The quickest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 543-457 for +6.79 units and a ROI of 0.7% so far in the regular season. To get a full perspective on the advantage of this strategy, playing almost every MLB game on the board, the average MLB bettor now using it and playing it would theoretically be down over -58 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY, TEXAS, TORONTO, ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE, ST LOUIS, CHICAGO CUBS, ARIZONA, CLEVELAND, SAN FRANCISCO, HOUSTON, SAN DIEGO, NY METS 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating, if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 100-59 for +28.33 units, and an ROI of 17.8%! To ensure this isn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the 2024 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-115 vs. DET), NY METS (-105 at PHI)

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 78-96 for -21.04 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -12.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (-113 at PIT), BOSTON (+134 at SF), HOUSTON (-123 at LAA), SAN DIEGO (-108 vs. KC)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 77-162 for -37.40 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -15.6%. This is the double whammy scenario to avoid.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+167 vs. AZ), LA ANGELS (+101 vs. HOU), WASHINGTON (+213 at LAD) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 58-23 for +6.51 units. Three straight losses by the NY Yankees to LAA bring this closer to negative territory.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-267 vs. WSH)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a VERY strong start, 87-26 for +19.8 units, a ROI of 17.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-218 vs. CWS), ARIZONA (-206 at COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in ’25. For the season, the record is now 195-220 for +12.69 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+167 at NYY), MILWAUKEE (+109 at MIN), ST LOUIS (-105 vs. CIN), CHICAGO CUBS (-101 vs. SEA), SAN DIEGO (-108 vs. KC), NY METS (-105 at PHI)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For ’25, these teams struggled out of the gate, 162-186 for -7.86 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+109 at MIN), ST LOUIS (-105 vs. CIN), CHICAGO CUBS (-101 vs. SEA), SAN DIEGO (-108 vs. KC), NY METS (-105 at PHI)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far, it is 111-86 for -0.55 units, having recovered from a slow start.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+109 at MIN), ST LOUIS (-105 vs CIN), ARIZONA (-206 at COL)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 AM ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns: 

– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the ‘23 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and a ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): MILWAUKEE, SAN DIEGO, NY METS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and an ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as Majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 107-61 (61.1%) for -37.26 units and an ROI of -22.2%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS, MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO CUBS, SAN FRANCISCO, SAN DIEGO 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CWS-TOR, MIL-MIN, CIN-STL, CLE-ATH 

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 350-360 but for +47.12 units and a ROI of 6.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-107 at TB), CINCINNATI (-116 at STL), COLORADO (+167 vs. AZ) 

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 580-762 but for +26.93 units and a ROI of 2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+167 at NYY), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+168 at TOR), MILWAUKEE (+113 at MIN), BOSTON (+134 at SF) 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 302-337 but for +79.34 units and a ROI of 12.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+167 at NYY), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+168 at TOR), MILWAUKEE (+113 at MIN) 

MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a nice investment lately, going 137-54 but for +14.47 units and an ROI of 7.6% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-206 vs. BAL) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 550-615 record but for +57.24 units and an ROI of 4.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+167 at NYY), DETROIT (-107 at TB), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+168 at TOR), BOSTON (+134 at SF), KANSAS CITY (-112 at SD), HOUSTON (-124 at LAA)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different MLB betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 394-377 (51.1%) for +24.29 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-137 vs. MIL), PHILADELPHIA (-115 vs. NYM) 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1812-1726 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -253.40 units. This represents an ROI of -7.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO CUBS, NY METS, LA ANGELS 

Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1799-2288 (44%) for -199.85 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, BOSTON, KANSAS CITY, HOUSTON 

Home teams that scored well in the last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3672-3230 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -511.68 units and a ROI of -7.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, TAMPA BAY, ST LOUIS, CHICAGO CUBS, TORONTO, SAN DIEGO, LA ANGELS

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 1040-901 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +8.75 units for backers and an ROI of 0.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-137 vs. MIL), SAN FRANCISCO (-164 vs. BOS)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 541-458 (54.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +19.31 units, for an ROI of 1.9%.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-109 vs. TEX) 

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 329-166 (66.5%) for +42.25 units and an ROI of 8.5%!
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-206 vs. BAL)
*ALSO WATCH FOR CHICAGO CUBS vs SEA, -103 CURRENTLY 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS -103 (+25 diff), BALTIMORE +167 (+16)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA -136 (+19 diff), ARIZONA -206 (+18), CLEVELAND -122 (+17) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CWS-TOR UNDER 9 (-1.0), WSH-LAD UNDER 9.5 (-0.6), KC-SD UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(951) ATLANTA (35-40) at (952) MIAMI (30-45)
Trend: ATL is 13-25 (-20.72 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-136 at MIA) 

(953) CINCINNATI (39-38) at (954) ST LOUIS (42-35)
Trend: CIN is 6-2 (+5.45 units) in the last eight road divisional matchups with starter Andrew Abbott
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-116 at STL)

Trend: STL is 9-3 (+4.10 units) in home day games vs CIN/CHC/PIT in the last six seasons with starter Miles Mikolas
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-105 vs CIN) 

(955) ARIZONA (39-37) at (956) COLORADO (17-60)
Trend: AZ is 17-7 (+9.94 units) in day games with start by Brandon Pfaadt since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-206 at COL) 

(957) WASHINGTON (32-45) at (958) LOS ANGELES-NL (47-31)
Trend: Over the total is 26-14-3 (+10.60 units) in Dodgers’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-LAD (o/u at 9.5) 

(961) BALTIMORE (33-43) at (962) NEW YORK-AL (44-32)
Trend: BAL is 17-3 (+15.41 units) in the last 20 Divisional Games with starter Dean Kremer
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+167 at NYY)

Trend: Under the total is 17-7-2 (+9.30 units) when BAL is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-NYY (o/u at 9.5) 

(963) DETROIT (48-30) at (964) TAMPA BAY (43-34)
Trend: Under the total is 30-17-3 (+11.30 units) when TB is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-TB (o/u at 8.5) 

(965) CHICAGO-AL (24-53) at (966) TORONTO (41-35)
Trend: Adrian Houser is 14-5 (+10.00 units) in the last 19 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+176 at TOR)

Trend: Chris Bassitt is 18-7 (+7.52 units) vs. AL Central opponents in the last six seasons
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 26-10 (+12.35 units) in day games vs. teams with a losing record in the last six seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-218 vs. CWS) 

(967) CLEVELAND (38-37) at (968) ATHLETICS (32-47)
Trend: ATH is 12-25 (-9.40 units) in day game starts by JP Sears in the last three years
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+103 vs. CLE) 

(969) HOUSTON (44-33) at (970) LOS ANGELES-AL (37-39)
Trend: Kyle Hendricks not good in the short underdog role, +100 to +128 range, 5-18 (-12.46 units)
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+101 vs. HOU)

(971) TEXAS (38-39) at (972) PITTSBURGH (30-48)
Trend: Under the total is 20-7-1 (+12.30 units) in Rangers’ day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-PIT (o/u at 9) 

(973) MILWAUKEE (42-35) at (974) MINNESOTA (37-39)
Trend: MIN has been awful in day games, 16-23 (-13.05 units)
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-137 vs. MIL) 

(975) SEATTLE (38-37) at (976) CHICAGO-NL (46-30)
Trend: Colin Rea is good in the -120 to +135 line range (23-9 record, +15.43 units in the last 2+ seasons)
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-103 vs. SEA) 

(977) BOSTON (40-38) at (978) SAN FRANCISCO (43-34)
Trend: Lucas Giolito is 10-16 against the NL (-8.38 units) since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (+134 at SF)

Trend: Under the total is 36-19-1 (+15.10 units) when SF is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-SF (o/u at 7.5) 

(979) KANSAS CITY (38-39) at (980) SAN DIEGO (41-35)
Trend: Seth Lugo is 6-16 (-11.82 units) on the road against teams with a winning record since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-112 at SD) 

Series #12: Cleveland at Athletics, Fri 6/20-Sun 6/22
Trend: CLEVELAND is on an 18-4 (81.8%, +12.99 units) run versus the Athletics dating back to April 2022.
–  The ROI on this trend is 59%.
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-125 at ATH)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow, June 23)

The post MLB Top Picks Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends Sunday, June 22 appeared first on VSiN.