The wind was blowing straight out to center field on Sunday at Wrigley Field with winds at 14 mph and gusts up to 25 mph. Plus it was 90 degrees.
Intuitively, we know that’s good for home runs at Wrigley. (Well, beyond intuitively, I have watched roughly 4,000 Cubs games.)
But how good?
Well, I checked VSiN.com’s new MLB handicapping tool, the Park Factors Report.
The chart shows that home runs are 45 percent more likely to happen vs. the MLB average at any ballpark.
Nine home runs and a 14-6 Cubs loss to the Mariners later, I figured it was time to write about the three new MLB tools we have on VSiN.com.
These tools are the product of a partnership with Ballpark Pal, a baseball handicapping site that uses advanced data and simulations to predict results in every MLB game,
VSiN’s Dan Strauss, an avid sports bettor who just finished a redesign of the VSiN home page, worked with Ballpark Pal to add this to the site, so I asked him what we should know:
The YRFI Report
The YRFI Report, is a great way to get quick projection insights on Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) and No Run First Inning (NRFI) bets.
When you open the report, you’ll see implied odds from the Ballpark Pal projection model for every game on the slate.
Let’s say the Diamondbacks are playing the Blue Jays. The model projects a first-inning run at -140, but your sportsbook is offering +110?
Boom. That’s value.
Use the report to see which games the model ranks highest for first-inning runs — or to double-check your own lean. It’s a smart, simple way to add another data point to your betting strategy.
The Park Factors Report
This tool tells you how each stadium (plus weather!) is expected to influence key hitting outcomes today — compared to a league average. The model takes into consideration each park’s dimensions, altitude, and weather to show exactly how the environment might juice, or suppress a game’s offense.
Let’s break it down:
+38% HR at Sutter Health Park? That means you can expect 38% more home runs than usual.
-6% for doubles/triples at Globe Life Field? Might want to rethink that total bases prop.
These park and weather effects are just one piece of the puzzle—but they’re a powerful way to quickly gauge how the environment might tilt the odds.
The Strikeout Report
The Strikeout Projections Report shows Ballpark Pal’s projected strikeout totals for every starting pitcher on today’s slate — along with the implied odds of each one hitting the over.
Here’s where it gets fun: we’ve layered in a live feed of consensus sportsbook odds, so you can instantly compare the model’s projections to the actual betting lines. Spot a gap in your favor? That’s your signal.
Use this tool as a sharp data point to help you handicap pitcher props all through the rest of the MLB season.
My thanks to Dan for making this happen. I think Dan did well to explain how you can use these tools to help your handicapping, but please send me your questions and feedback.
I also would encourage you to check out Ballpark Pal to see all their tools. It is a subscription site, but you can use the code VSiN to get full access through the end of the season for $35.
MLB Today
Speaking of handicapping helpers, Steve Makinen updates his Bullpen Betting Systems.
Greg Peterson has Best Bets for today’s menu.
Steve Makinen and Josh Appelbaum will file their daily contributions later this morning.
NBA Fallout
Ahead of Wednesday’s draft, the Celtics traded Jrue Holiday to the Trail Blazers for Anfernee Simons and two second-round picks. Also, Tyrese Haliburton had surgery on his torn Achilles tendon. The Pacers gave no timetable for his recovery, but next season is certainly in doubt.
Mike Somich and Zach Cohen jump on some early futures bets, all long shots.
>>Zach’s three conference futures.
Quick Hits
Last Chance to win a free Circa contest entry! Winners Circle Proxy is giving away one Circa Survivor and one Circa Million VII entry — with proxy service included. Winners will also get exclusive strategy advice from Gill Alexander! Enter by Wednesday, June 25 at 11:59 PM ET. Winners announced Friday on A Numbers Game. >>Enter now.
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