QB Spotlight: Passing Props for Week 1 Top 25 Matchups

Week 1 of college football has delivered some incredible matchups to kick off the season. We get three top 25 showdowns, all featuring battles between top 10 teams. These games will showcase a mix of veteran starting quarterbacks and others making either their first career start or their first meaningful one. Things get underway at noon ET with Texas vs. Ohio State, a matchup between two unproven commodities in Arch Manning and Julian Sayin. In the prime-time slot at 7:30 PM ET, it’s LSU vs. Clemson, featuring veteran signal-callers Garrett Nussmeier and Cade Klubnik. To close out the weekend on Sunday night at 7:30 PM ET, Notre Dame heads to Miami to face the Hurricanes in a matchup between redshirt freshman CJ Carr and veteran transfer Carson Beck. You couldn’t ask for much more in Week 1, and storylines will be everywhere. Let’s break down each QB battle and the passing props on the board.

(1) Texas vs. (3) Ohio State

Arch Manning: Redshirt sophomore Arch Manning will make his long-awaited first meaningful start on the road at Ohio State. His current passing props sit at 237.5 yards (over -115; under -115) and 1.5 touchdowns (over +115; under -145) per ESPN Bet. Manning did see action last season when starter Quinn Ewers was injured, but those appearances came in matchups where he wasn’t asked to do much. His starts were against teams like UL Monroe and Mississippi State, and while Mississippi State is an SEC opponent, they’re nowhere near the defensive level Ohio State will bring. In this spot, especially on the road with modest weather conditions, Texas is likely to ease Manning into the game and lean on the ground attack. Ohio State also boasts one of the nation’s best secondaries, led by star safety Caleb Downs, meaning a lot of Manning’s throws could come underneath.

Julian Sayin: Ohio State redshirt freshman Julian Sayin will be making his first career college start in what feels like one of the biggest season openers ever. Sayin’s current passing props are set at 224.5 yards (over -115; under -115) and 1.5 touchdowns (over +105; under -135) per ESPN Bet. He’ll face a Texas defense loaded with returning production and one of the strongest secondaries in the nation, making this a brutal debut matchup. Fortunately for Sayin, he has two of the country’s top receivers in Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The rest of the supporting cast brings more questions than answers, with an inexperienced running back and a relatively untested offensive line. Like Texas, Ohio State will need to establish the run to ease pressure on its young quarterback and open up opportunities through the air.

(9) LSU vs. (4) Clemson

Garrett Nussmeier: LSU senior Garrett Nussmeier enters his second year as the Tigers’ starting quarterback. In the opener against Clemson, his passing props are set at 284.5 yards (over -120; under -110) and 1.5 touchdowns (over -170; under +130) per ESPN Bet. LSU will lean heavily on his arm, not just because of his experience, but also to counter Clemson’s dominant defensive front. Last season, Nussmeier averaged 311 passing yards and 2.2 touchdowns per game. Betting the overs could be tempting, as both unders would have only cashed in 4 of his 13 starts a year ago. Clemson’s atmosphere will be challenging, but with calm weather conditions and Nussmeier’s veteran presence, he’s positioned for a strong performance.

Cade Klubnik: Also entering his senior year is Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik. His current passing props sit at 262.5 yards (over -115; under -115) and 1.5 touchdowns (over -180; under +135) per ESPN Bet. In 14 games last season, Klubnik averaged around 260 yards and 2.5 touchdowns through the air. One key factor is that Clemson’s receivers, who were very young a year ago, now bring a season or two of experience, which should make the passing attack look much sharper. The biggest challenge for Klubnik will be LSU’s linebacking corps, which could limit short to intermediate throws and force more attempts downfield. Playing at home should also help settle him in, giving Clemson a boost heading into this high-level matchup.

(6) Notre Dame vs. (10) Miami

CJ Carr: Notre Dame redshirt freshman CJ Carr will make his college debut against the Miami Hurricanes this Sunday. ESPN Bet currently lists his passing props at 189.5 yards (over -110; under -120) and 1.5 touchdowns (over +140; under -190). Last season, the Irish leaned heavily on the run with veteran Riley Leonard at quarterback, and with standout back Jeremiyah Love still in the mix, much of the offense will flow through him again. Miami doesn’t exactly boast a dominant home-field edge, so if Notre Dame can establish the ground game early, Carr should find more openings in the secondary. He’ll also benefit from veteran targets on the outside, ranging from senior tight end Eli Raridon to junior Jordan Faison, though with Marcus Freeman’s conservative approach on offense, 189.5 feels like a very sharp line.

Carson Beck: The transfer from Georgia, Carson Beck, will be making his first start for Miami this Sunday. The Hurricanes’ new quarterback is projected at 239.5 passing yards (over -120; under -110), along with 1.5 passing touchdowns (over even; under -130). It’s not an easy way to open the season in a new system, as Notre Dame boasts what should be a top 10 defense in the FBS. Last year, Beck averaged 268 passing yards and 2.1 touchdowns per game. While Mario Cristobal favors a pass-heavy offense, Miami may need to lean on the run more than usual against Notre Dame’s secondary and with the threat of thunderstorms. The Hurricanes do return a veteran offensive line, which will help both the ground game and pass protection. Still, if the rain lingers throughout the game, the advantage shifts to the defense, making the under on Beck’s passing props more likely.