Game: Clemson Tigers vs. Duke Blue Devils

Date: March 13th at 9:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN2

Both the Clemson Tigers and the Duke Blue Devils narrowly escaped their quarterfinal matchups and will have to turn right around and do it again tonight in the semifinals of the ACC Men’s Basketball Tournament.

Clemson built a large lead in its quarterfinal matchup against the North Carolina Tar Heels before things tightened up quickly down the stretch. With those two wins in the ACC Tournament, the Tigers now sit at 24-9 overall after finishing the regular season with a 12-6 record in ACC play. Duke qualifies as another Quad 1 matchup for Clemson, and the Tigers are now 7-5 against teams in that quadrant this season. Clemson is averaging 74.5 points per game (180th in Division I) while allowing 66.5 points per contest (21st in Division I).

Duke’s quarterfinal matchup looked a bit different, as their game remained tightly contested throughout. Even so, the Blue Devils pushed their season record to an impressive 30-2 after finishing the regular season 17-1 in ACC play. Clemson will also count as a Quad 1 opponent for Duke, and the Blue Devils have been dominant in those games with a 15-2 record against Quad 1 teams this season. Duke is averaging 82.8 points per game (31st in Division I) while allowing just 63.0 points per contest (3rd in Division I).

The last time these teams met, Duke controlled the game comfortably. However, based on how the Blue Devils performed in their last outing, this matchup could end up being much closer.

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Betting Overview

This matchup initially opened with Duke listed as an 11.5-point favorite, but the line has since shifted slightly toward Clemson, with Duke now sitting around -10.5.

The moneyline has seen a similar adjustment. Clemson opened around +575 but has since moved closer to +450, while Duke opened near -850 and now sits around -600. The total has also ticked slightly upward from the opening number of 133.5 to around 134.5.

KenPom Ratings

According to KenPom, Duke remains the No. 1 team in the country with a net rating of +39.32, matching their position in the NET rankings.

Clemson ranks slightly lower in KenPom than in the NET rankings. The Tigers sit 36th in KenPom with a net rating of +19.33, which is two spots below their NET ranking of 34th. Duke holds an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 128.0 (4th nationally) along with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 88.7 (1st nationally). Clemson, meanwhile, enters with an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 116.6 (71st nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 97.3 (19th nationally).

Betting Trends

In the previous meeting between these two teams, the Duke Blue Devils secured the win, but the Clemson Tigers still managed to cover the spread. The under (134) also cashed in that 67–54 game played in Durham. Looking at the last 10 matchups between these programs, Duke has dominated the series with seven wins, though Clemson has been slightly more favorable against the spread, covering in six of those games. The under has also been the more common result, hitting in six of the last 10 meetings.

Clemson enters this matchup with a 16-15-1 ATS record, including a 3-3 mark on neutral courts, a strong 4-1 record as an underdog, and a 10-9-1 record in ACC play. Totals have leaned toward the under in Clemson games this season, hitting in 19 of 32 contests. On neutral courts, totals have split evenly with three overs and three unders. When Clemson has been an underdog, the under has hit in three of five games. In ACC matchups, the under has cashed in 12 of 20 games.

Duke comes into this game with an 18-14 ATS record, including a 3-3 mark on neutral floors, a 16-14 record as a favorite, and a 10-9 record in ACC play. Totals have also leaned heavily toward the under in Blue Devils games, hitting in 21 of 32 contests. On neutral courts, the under has hit in four of six games. When Duke has been favored, the under has connected in 19 of 30 matchups, including 11 of 19 games during conference play.

Final Thoughts

Tournament games often bring a number of unpredictable variables, including the added pressure and the quick turnaround of playing on consecutive days. Clemson has shown plenty of resilience through its first two games of the tournament and has proven capable of keeping games competitive.

Because of that, I expect the Tigers to once again keep things close and ultimately cover the spread against a very strong Duke team. As for the total, I would lean toward the over in this matchup given how both teams have allowed points during tournament play so far.