Game: Clemson Tigers vs. UNC Tar Heels

Date: March 12th at 9:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

Rounding out the evening in the ACC Men’s Basketball Tournament once again are the Clemson Tigers, who have another late start — this time against the North Carolina Tar Heels. Clemson handled business last night against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons and will look to carry that momentum into a showdown with a deeper Carolina squad.

The Tigers now hold a strong 23-9 overall record with a 12-6 mark in regular-season ACC play. Carolina qualifies as a Quad 1 opponent for Clemson, and the Tigers are 6-5 against teams in that quadrant this season. Clemson is currently averaging 74.4 points per game (186th in Division I) while allowing just 66.2 points per contest (18th in Division I).

UNC will be playing its first game of the tournament after suffering a tough loss to the Duke Blue Devils last Saturday. The Tar Heels enter with a 24-7 overall record and a 12-6 record in ACC play. Clemson represents UNC’s 11th Quad 1 opponent of the season, and the Tar Heels are currently 4-6 against teams in that category. Carolina is averaging 79.8 points per game (76th in Division I) while allowing 71.0 points per contest (81st in Division I).

These teams met in a tightly contested matchup in Chapel Hill just over a week ago, and we could see another battle that comes down to the final few possessions.

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Betting Overview

North Carolina initially opened as a 1.5-point favorite, but the line has since flipped, with Clemson now favored by the same 1.5-point margin at most sportsbooks.

On the moneyline, Clemson currently sits around -118 to -120, while North Carolina is hovering close to even odds. The total has remained fairly steady, holding at 140.5 across most sportsbooks.

KenPom Ratings

These teams are nearly identical in the KenPom rankings. North Carolina currently sits 30th nationally with a net rating of +21.06, while Clemson ranks 37th with a net rating of +19.20.

UNC holds an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 121.4 (34th nationally) along with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 100.4 (35th nationally). Clemson, meanwhile, enters with an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 116.4 (74th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 97.2 (18th nationally).

Betting Trends

In last week’s meeting in Chapel Hill, the North Carolina Tar Heels narrowly defeated the Clemson Tigers 67–63, just covering the 2.5-point spread. The under also cashed in that matchup with the closing total set at 141.5. Looking at the last 10 meetings between these programs dating back to 2018, the series has been evenly split with each team winning five games. Clemson has had the edge against the spread, covering six of those contests, while the over has hit in seven of the 10 matchups.

Clemson enters this game with a 16-14-1 ATS record, including a 3-2 mark on neutral courts, a 12-13-1 record as a favorite, and a 10-8-1 record in ACC play. Totals have leaned strongly toward the under in Clemson games, hitting in 19 of 31 contests. On neutral courts, the under has hit in three of five games. When Clemson has been favored, the under has connected in 16 of 26 games, including 12 of 19 in conference play.

North Carolina comes into this matchup 18-13 ATS, with a 1-2 record on neutral floors, a 6-3 mark as an underdog, and a 10-8 record in ACC action. Totals have also leaned toward the under in Carolina games, hitting in 19 of 31 contests. On neutral courts, the under has hit in two of three games. When UNC has been an underdog, the under has cashed in seven of nine games. In ACC play, totals have split evenly with nine overs and nine unders.

Final Thoughts

With these teams having played just last week, we already have a good sense of how they match up against one another. Clemson has shown it can keep this game competitive, and the Tigers should once again be able to challenge Carolina.

Because of that, I expect Clemson to keep things close and ultimately cover the spread. As for the total, the recent matchup and season-long trends both point toward the under as the stronger lean.