Game: NC State Wolfpack vs. Virginia Cavaliers

Date: March 12th at 12:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN2

The stage is set for the first quarterfinal matchup in the ACC Men’s Basketball Tournament, featuring an exciting showdown between the NC State Wolfpack and the Virginia Cavaliers.

In their opening ACC Tournament game against the Pittsburgh Panthers, NC State didn’t look particularly sharp out of the gates but eventually settled in as the first half progressed before pulling away in the second half. That victory pushed the Wolfpack over the 20-win mark for the season, bringing them to 20-12 overall with a 10-8 record in regular-season ACC play. Facing Virginia makes this a Quad 1 matchup for NC State, and the Wolfpack are currently 5-7 against opponents in that quadrant. NC State is averaging 83.5 points per game (24th in Division I) while allowing 76.0 points per contest (217th Division I).

Virginia closed out the regular season by taking care of business in its final two games, though the Cavaliers didn’t necessarily look dominant in those contests. They enter the tournament at 27-4 overall with a 15-3 record in ACC play. Facing NC State on a neutral floor also qualifies as a Quad 1 matchup for the Cavaliers, who hold a 6-3 record against such opponents. Virginia is averaging 80.9 points per game (54th in Division I) while allowing just 68.3 points per game (40th Division I).

With two efficient offensive teams taking the floor, this matchup has the potential to feature plenty of scoring. The key question will be whether NC State’s perimeter shooting can keep them competitive against Virginia’s balanced attack.

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Betting Overview

Virginia opened as a 4.5-point favorite in this matchup, but early betting action has pushed that line up to around -6.5 in favor of the Cavaliers.

The moneyline has remained fairly steady, with NC State sitting around +220 and Virginia around -240. The total has dropped slightly from its opening number of 151.5 and now sits around 148.5 at most sportsbooks.

KenPom Ratings

There is a relatively small gap between these teams in the KenPom rankings. Virginia currently sits 20th nationally with a net rating of +25.26, while NC State ranks 35th with a net rating of +18.93.

The Cavaliers enter this matchup with an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 121.8 (33rd nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 96.5 (16th nationally). NC State, meanwhile, holds an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 124.5 (18th nationally) along with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 104.8 (86th nationally).

Betting Trends

These teams met twice during the regular season, with the Virginia Cavaliers winning and covering in both matchups. The under also hit in each of those games. Looking at the last 10 meetings overall, Virginia holds a slight edge with six wins. Against the spread, each team has covered four times with two pushes.

The NC State Wolfpack enter this matchup with a 16-15-1 ATS record, including a strong 4-2 mark on neutral courts. They are just 1-4 ATS as an underdog and 9-9-1 ATS in ACC play. Totals have leaned toward the over in Wolfpack games this season, hitting in 20 of 32 contests. On neutral courts, the over has connected in four of six games. When NC State has been an underdog, the over has hit in three of five contests. In ACC play, the over has also been prominent, cashing in 13 of 19 games.

Virginia comes into this game with a 14-15-2 ATS record, including a 1-2-1 mark on neutral courts, an 11-14-2 record as a favorite, and an 8-10 record in ACC play. Totals have leaned toward the under in Cavaliers games, hitting in 19 of 31 contests. On neutral courts, totals have split evenly with two overs and two unders. When Virginia has been favored, the under has hit in 16 of 27 games. In ACC matchups, the under has also been favorable, hitting in 12 of 18 games.

Final Thoughts

Virginia controlled both regular-season meetings between these teams, showing a clear edge in those matchups. While it’s never easy to beat the same opponent three times in a season, the Cavaliers appear to have the matchup advantage.

For that reason, I expect Virginia to come away with the win and cover the spread once again. As for the total, I would lean toward the over in this contest.