Game: Pittsburgh Panthers vs. NC State Wolfpack

Date: March 11th at 12:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN2

Following their narrow win yesterday against the Stanford Cardinal, the Pittsburgh Panthers have kept their season alive and will advance to the second round of the ACC Men’s Basketball Tournament to face the NC State Wolfpack. Pitt enters this matchup with a 13-19 overall record and a 5-13 mark in ACC play. NC State qualifies as a Quad 1 opponent for Pitt, and the Panthers are just 2-9 this season against teams in that quadrant. Pitt is currently averaging 70.0 points per game (287th in Division I) while allowing 71.0 points per contest (80th in Division I). 

NC State, meanwhile, benefited from a much-needed first-round bye in the ACC Tournament after a difficult close to the regular season, where they dropped four straight games. The Wolfpack finished the regular season just shy of the 20-win mark at 19-12 overall with a 10-8 record in conference play. Pitt will be considered a Quad 3 opponent for NC State on a neutral floor, and the Wolfpack are a perfect 4-0 against teams in that quadrant. NC State is averaging 83.5 points per game (24th in Division I) while allowing 76.0 points per contest (217th in Division I). 

Anytime postseason college basketball rolls around, there’s bound to be plenty of excitement. This appears to be a spot where NC State should take care of business, but given their recent form, nothing can be taken for granted.

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Betting Overview

This matchup opened with NC State listed as a 7.5-point favorite, and the line has since moved further in their direction, with most sportsbooks now listing the Wolfpack at around -8.5.

The best value on the moneyline currently sits at +285 for Pitt (FanDuel and DraftKings) and -350 for NC State (BetMGM). The total has also dropped noticeably from the opening number of 146.5 and now sits between 143.5 and 144.5 depending on the sportsbook.

KenPom Ratings

In the KenPom ratings, NC State currently sits 35th nationally with a net rating of +19.61, while Pitt ranks 96th with a net rating of +7.81.

The Wolfpack hold an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 123.4 (23rd nationally) along with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 103.8 (67th nationally). Pitt, on the other hand, enters with an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 113.3 (109th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 105.5 (96th nationally).

Betting Trends

In the earlier meeting this season, the NC State Wolfpack defeated the Pittsburgh Panthers 81–72 in Pittsburgh, with the over also cashing in that matchup. Looking at the last 10 meetings between these teams, NC State holds a 6–4 advantage straight up. However, Pitt has been slightly more favorable against the spread, covering in six of those games, while totals have split evenly with five overs and five unders.

Pitt enters this matchup 17-15 ATS this season, including a 2-1 record on neutral courts, a 9-9 mark as an underdog, and an 11-8 record in ACC games. Totals have leaned slightly toward the over overall, hitting in 16 of 32 contests with one push. On neutral floors, however, the under has hit in all three Pitt games this season. In games where Pitt has been an underdog, the under has connected in nine of 18 contests with one push. In ACC play, the over has hit in 10 of 19 games.

NC State comes into this game with a 15-15-1 ATS record, including a 3-2 mark on neutral courts, a 13-11-1 record as a favorite, and an 8-9-1 record in ACC play. Totals have leaned toward the over in Wolfpack games this season, hitting in 19 of 31 contests. On neutral courts, the over has hit in three of five games. When NC State has been favored, the over has cashed in 15 of 25 games, including 12 of 18 during conference play.

Final Thoughts

Who doesn’t enjoy a weekday noon tip when postseason college basketball is on the line? This matchup provides plenty of intrigue and should be a great way to kick off the second round of the ACC Men’s Basketball Tournament.

With the extra rest from the first-round bye, NC State should enter this game with a fresh mindset and renewed energy. I expect the Wolfpack to take advantage of that edge, ultimately winning the game and covering the spread. As for the total, I would lean slightly toward the over in this matchup.