Baltimore Ravens

With both a strong offense and a solid defense, sportsbooks have generally been close to even when projecting over/unders for Ravens games since 2020. Over this stretch, Baltimore has hit the over in 42 games, the under in 47 games, and had 2 pushes, giving them a 47.2% over rate compared to a 52.8% under rate. The over has been most reliable in Ravens games following a bye: 4-1-1 record (80.0%), games with a rest disadvantage: 11-6-0 record (64.7%), games after a loss: 17-11-1 record (60.7%), and matchups against NFC opponents: 14-10-0 record (58.3%). The under, meanwhile, has been most common for Baltimore in games with a rest advantage: 10-6-2 record (62.5%), games after a win: 33-23-1 record (58.9%), and contests against AFC opponents: 37-28-2 record (56.9%).

Cincinnati Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals hold the second-highest over percentage in the AFC North since 2020, but they still remain below the 50% threshold. Cincinnati has an over record of 44-45-1 (49.4%), which suggests that both bettors and sportsbooks may overvalue the Bengals’ offense and/or undervalue their defense in certain situations. Out of a bye week, the Bengals have a 5-1-0 over record (83.3%), as a home favorite they’re 19-10-0 (65.5%), and in divisional matchups they’re 18-12-1 (60.0%). The under has been more common in games where Cincinnati has the rest advantage: 9-6-0 record (60.0%), in road contests: 27-19-1 record (58.7%), as the underdog: 23-17-0 record (57.5%), and in non-division games: 33-26-0 record (55.9%).

Cleveland Browns

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Sitting at the top of the AFC North with the highest over percentage since 2020, the Cleveland Browns have an over record of 44-42-1 (51.2%). The situations where Cleveland has most often hit the over include games after a bye: 4-1-0 record (80.0%), contests with a rest advantage: 11-4-0 record (73.3%), and games as a road underdog: 18-12-0 record (60.0%). On the other hand, the under has been most consistent in games where the Browns faced a rest disadvantage: 9-2-0 record (81.8%), matchups against NFC opponents: 14-10-0 record (58.3%), and games at home: 23-18-1 record (56.1%). With all the changes surrounding the Browns, it seems likely that early in the season sportsbooks may set more conservative over/under numbers, potentially creating value on overs for Cleveland out of the gate.

Pittsburgh Steelers

With the style of play Mike Tomlin prefers, it often leads to lower-scoring games, and as a result, the Steelers hold the lowest over record in the AFC North: 38-48-2 (44.2%). Since Pittsburgh has been the clear “under kings” of the division, there aren’t many categories where the over has been consistent, with the only notable one being games as a road underdog: 17-15-1 record (53.1%). Conversely, there are several scenarios where the under has been common, including games as a road favorite: 4-8-0 record (66.7%), games as a home underdog: 10-5-0 record (66.7%), matchups against NFC opponents: 14-9-1 record (60.9%), and games with equal rest: 31-22-1 record (58.5%). While there will be some offensive changes with the addition of Aaron Rodgers, Tomlin’s overall philosophy remains the same, so these trends are likely to continue.