Houston Texans

Throughout the last five seasons, the sportsbooks have been fairly consistent in setting lines for Texans games. Since 2020, Houston has managed to cover just under 50% of their games at 48.2% (record 41-44-3). During this stretch, the Texans haven’t shown strong consistency in any category. The only two areas that stand out in Houston’s favor are division games, where they’ve covered 55.2% of the time (record 16-13-1), and games as an away underdog, where they’ve covered 53.1% of the time (record 17-15-1). There are also two areas where the Texans have faltered with a solid sample size of games. These trends are games in which the Texans were the favorite, where they’ve covered 37.5% of the time (record 9-15-2), and games against NFC opponents, where they’ve covered only 40.9% of the time (record 9-13-2).

Indianapolis Colts

The Indianapolis Colts have been the best team in the AFC South over the past five seasons when it comes to covering the spread, though they’re barely covering just over 50% of their games. Since 2020, Indianapolis has covered 50.6% of their games (record 43-42-0), so sportsbooks have made this team as close to a coin flip as possible. There’s only one trend that really stands out from the rest that has kept the Colts above 50%, and that is in games where they’ve been an away underdog, as they’ve managed to cover in 57.7% of those games (record 15-11-0). The best spot to fade Indy since 2020 has been in division games, as they’ve covered only 43.3% of those matchups (record 13-17-0). Most interestingly, the Colts have been exactly 50% (record 42-42) in regular season games since 2020.

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Jacksonville Jaguars

Since 2020, the Jacksonville Jaguars haven’t exactly lived up to expectations, especially with Trevor Lawrence, but their ATS record isn’t terrible, meaning sportsbooks have had a solid read on how Jaguar teams are likely to perform. Over this span, and ranking 3rd in the AFC South, the Jaguars have covered in 47.1% of their games (record 40-45-1). Consistency against the spread has shown in division games, where the Jags have covered 58.6% of the time (record 17-12-1), and in games following a win, where they’ve covered 57.7% of the time (record 15-11-0). They’ve faltered fairly often in several categories, such as games with a rest disadvantage: 33.3% cover rate (record 5-10-0), games vs. NFC teams: 37.5% cover rate (record 9-15-0), games as the favorite: 39.1% (record 9-14-0), and games after a loss: 40.7% (record 22-32-1). If these trends continue, there should be plenty of opportunities to fade the Jaguars this season.

Tennessee Titans

Coming in with the worst ATS record since 2020 out of the AFC South are the Tennessee Titans, with a 41.7% cover rate (record 35-49-2). There are several trends showing where the Titans have been overvalued, but the only area with a decent sample size where they’ve excelled against the spread is in home games as the underdog, covering 56.3% of their games (record 9-7-1). The most alarming trend where the Titans have failed to cover is in games where they’ve been the favorite, covering only 36.1% of the time (record 13-23-0). Other trends worth noting over this span are games where their opponent has equal rest: 37.7% cover rate (record 20-33-1), and non-division games: 40.7% cover rate (22-32-2).