Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos have posted the weakest over record in the AFC West since 2020, sitting at 37-47-1, making them a clear under-leaning team. During this span, the Broncos don’t have a single category with an over percentage above 50%, though there are two that sit right at even. Those situations are games as an away favorite: 5-5-0 record (50.0%), and divisional matchups: 15-15-0 record (50.0%). The most reliable under spots have come in games when Denver plays with a rest disadvantage: 9-6-1 record (60.0%), non-division contests: 32-22-1 record (59.3%), games with a rest edge: 8-6-0 record (57.1%), and games as an underdog: 28-21-0 record (57.1%). Last season looked a bit different with Bo Nix under center, so it will be worth watching if the Broncos trend toward becoming a more consistent over team this year.

Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City may have fielded prolific offenses since the 2020 season, but their defense has been just as reliable. The Chiefs rank 3rd in the AFC West in terms of over results, holding a 46-54-0 record (46.0%). The only meaningful trend toward the over has come in games as an away favorite, where they’ve posted a 21-16-0 record (56.8%). The under, however, has been far more consistent, especially in games with a rest advantage: 17-9-0 record (65.4%), games as a home favorite: 31-18-0 record (63.3%), and games following a win: 43-34-0 record (55.8%). If sportsbooks continue to price the Chiefs in line with recent seasons, these trends are likely to remain intact moving forward.

Las Vegas Raiders

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It may come as a surprise to some, but the Las Vegas Raiders have been the most consistent over team in the AFC West. Since 2020, the Raiders have posted an over record of 44-40-1 (52.4%). The encouraging part for Las Vegas is that they’ve shown strong trends on both sides of the total. For the over, their most consistent results have come in games as a home underdog: 15-7-0 record (68.2%), divisional matchups: 18-12-0 record (60.0%), games with equal rest: 27-20-1 record (57.4%), and games against AFC opponents: 35-26-0 record (57.4%). On the flip side, the under has been most reliable in games against NFC opponents: 14-9-1 record (60.9%), games with a rest disadvantage: 12-8-0 record (60.0%), and games as an away underdog: 17-13-0 record (56.7%). With the Pete Carroll era now beginning in Las Vegas, it won’t take long to see whether these trends continue.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers sit in the second spot for over record in the AFC West with a mark of 40-45-1 (47.1%). Even with that placement, their over rate still falls below 50%, leaving few categories where the over has been consistent. The only two areas of real significance have been games with a rest advantage: 8-5-1 record (61.5%), and games following a loss: 22-17-1 record (56.4%). On the other hand, the under has shown several strong trends, most notably in games when the Chargers have a rest disadvantage: 14-6-0 record (70.0%), matchups against NFC opponents: 16-7-1 record (69.6%), games as an away underdog: 12-7-0 record (63.2%), and games following a win: 24-17-0 record (58.5%). With a largely unchanged roster heading into this season, these same trends are likely to remain steady.