AFC West Records & Trends ATS since 2020

Denver Broncos

Since 2020, the Denver Broncos have managed to be exactly 50% ATS (record 42-42-1), and are one of only two teams to do so over this time span. Throughout this period, the Broncos have been solid in games against NFC opponents, where they’ve posted a 56.5% cover rate (record 13-10-1), and in games following a loss, where they’ve gone 25-20-1 (55.6%) ATS. On the other end of the spectrum, Denver has struggled the most in games following a win, with a 14-20-0 (41.2%) ATS record. Outside of these categories, the Broncos have been close to 50%, making them a difficult team to bet for or against when it comes to the spread.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs have been just marginally overvalued by sportsbooks when it comes to covering the spread in the last five seasons. During this period, the Chiefs have maintained a record of 48-50-2 (49.0%), resulting in the worst ATS record in the AFC West. The good news is they have strong trends both in covering and in failing to cover the spread. The areas where the Chiefs have been especially good at covering during this time frame are in games where they’ve been the underdog: 66.7% cover rate (record 8-4-0), playoff games: 62.5% cover rate (record 10-6-0), and games against NFC opponents: 55.6% cover rate (record 15-12-1). Kansas City has had issues vs. the spread in games following a bye: 25% cover rate (record 2-6-0), games within the division: 36.7% cover rate (record 11-19-0), and games where they’ve been the home team: 44% cover rate (record 22-28-1).

Las Vegas Raiders

Just narrowly outpacing the Chiefs, the Las Vegas Raiders have held a record of 41-42-2 (49.4%) ATS. This goes to show how effective sportsbooks can be, as the worst team in the division can still find a way to outperform the best team in the division when it comes to covering the spread. There are also several areas where the Raiders have outliers in spots where they cover a significant amount, and areas where they fail to cover significantly. In the areas where Vegas has thrived are matchups when they have a rest disadvantage: 75% cover rate (record 15-5-0), games as the home favorite: 60% cover rate (record 12-8-0), and games within the division: 56.7% cover rate (record 17-13-0). On the opposite end, the Raiders have struggled to cover games in which they were an away favorite: 23.1% cover rate (record 3-10-0), games with a rest advantage: 37.5% cover rate (record 6-10-1), and games with equal rest: 42.6% cover rate (record 20-27-1).

Los Angeles Chargers

Coming in with the best record in the AFC West ATS is the Los Angeles Chargers, as they have been able to maintain a record of 45-39-2 (53.9%) ATS since 2020. The Chargers have been steady in every category, which has contributed to the strong record ATS that they have. The most significant trends that led to the Chargers covering the most games are in games where they are playing an NFC opponent: 58.3% cover rate (record 14-10-0), games as the away team: 58.1% cover rate (record 25-18-1), and in games within the division: 56.7% cover rate (record 17-13-0). There was only one area where the Chargers really struggled, and it was in games in which they were the home underdog, as they had a record of 4-7-0 (36.4%) over this time period.