In another Week 1 clash between two storied college football brands, Alabama heads to Tallahassee to face Florida State. Despite both programs being staples of the sport, they’ve met only five times, with Alabama winning three, Florida State two, and one tie dating back to 1965. Their last meeting came in the 2017 Chick-fil-A Kickoff, where Alabama rolled to a 24-7 victory. The Crimson Tide just wrapped up their first season in decades without Nick Saban, finishing 9-4 and 4th in the SEC. Florida State, meanwhile, endured a nightmare 2-10 campaign, finishing last in the ACC after opening the year in the preseason top 10. Oddsmakers heavily favor Alabama here, with the Tide sitting at -14 (-108) against the Seminoles at +14 (-112) per DraftKings. The moneyline lists Alabama at -600 and Florida State at +440, while the total is set at 49.5 (over -112; under -108).

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Weather

This game kicks off at 3:30 PM ET, and the weather could make things a bit messy. Temperatures are expected in the low-to-mid 80s, with rain chances climbing to 75% around 4:00 PM. Winds shouldn’t be a major factor, holding near 5 MPH with occasional gusts up to 17 MPH. The wet conditions could give Florida State a slight edge, especially with Alabama missing starting running back Jam Miller.

Team Overviews

Alabama enters the season with a balanced mix of experience and youth. While not every returning player was a starter last year, many logged meaningful snaps and learned the system under first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer. Quarterback Ty Simpson steps into the starting role after spending the past three seasons behind Bryce Young and Jalen Milroe. The absence of senior back Jam Miller could make things tricky in the run game, though the Tide’s veteran offensive line should help open lanes for younger backs. On defense, most projected starters were originally recruited by Nick Saban, and all were on last year’s roster.

Florida State head coach Mike Norvell, meanwhile, spent the offseason completely reshaping his roster. After leaning heavily on transfers in 2023, he doubled down this year, with 10 of the 11 projected starters on offense coming from other programs. At quarterback, the Seminoles turn to Boston College transfer Tommy Castellanos, who adds a dual-threat element. The defense tells a similar story, with seven of the 11 projected starters arriving via the portal, while the homegrown talent in the lineup remains mostly underclassmen.

ATS & Over/Under Trends

Alabama finished just above .500 ATS last season, covering in 7 of 13 games. Road contests were more of a struggle, as the Tide went 2-3-0 ATS (40%). Totals were similarly inconsistent, with 6 games going over and 7 under, and their road over record mirrored their ATS mark at 2-3-0.

Florida State, on the other hand, was dreadful against the spread, posting a 2-8-2 record. Both of those covers came at home, where the Seminoles went 2-4-1 (33.3%). The over was also hard to find, with just 3 overs against 9 unders on the season, including only 1 over at home. As a home underdog, the under cashed in all three of their opportunities.

Final Thoughts

Both teams will be breaking in new quarterbacks to open the season, though Alabama holds the edge with Ty Simpson, who has spent his entire college career in the program. The rainy forecast could help Florida State hang around early, but Alabama’s continuity and experience under Kalen DeBoer in year two should eventually take over. This one has the potential to turn into a second-half blowout in favor of the Crimson Tide.