Game: Charlotte 49ers vs. UAB Blazers

Date: March 13th at 1:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN2

The Charlotte 49ers kept their season alive yesterday with a strong performance against the Tulane Green Wave, securing a 14-point victory. One of the unique challenges of conference tournaments is the quick turnaround, and Charlotte will experience that immediately. Instead of another evening tip, the 49ers will be back on the court early this afternoon against a talented UAB Blazers squad.

Charlotte now sits at 16-16 overall this season after finishing 9-9 in the American Conference during the regular season. Facing UAB on a neutral floor qualifies as a Quad 3 matchup for the 49ers, and Charlotte holds a 4-5 record against teams in that quadrant this season. The 49ers are averaging 73.0 points per game (225th in Division I) while allowing 73.8 points per contest (151st Division I).

Because of the American Conference Tournament structure, this will be the first game of the tournament for UAB. The Blazers enter with a 20-11 overall record and an 11-7 mark in conference play. This matchup is also classified as a Quad 3 game for UAB, and the Blazers are an even 6-6 against teams in that quadrant this season. Over the course of the regular season, UAB averaged 78.2 points per game (96th in Division I) while allowing 74.1 points per contest (163rd Division I).

It’s often been a trend in tournament play that the team which played the day before carries a bit of momentum into the next round. We’ll see if that same advantage benefits Charlotte this afternoon.

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Betting Overview

UAB opened as a 3.5-point favorite in this matchup, but the line has moved further in their direction with the Blazers now sitting around -5.5 at most sportsbooks.

Looking at the moneyline, Charlotte offers some value at around +164, while UAB sits closer to -198. The total has dipped slightly from the opening number of 146.5 and now sits around 145.5.

KenPom Ratings

According to KenPom, UAB ranks 126th nationally with a net rating of +3.91, which is slightly lower than its NET ranking of 118th. Charlotte sits 184th in KenPom with a net rating of -1.55, compared to 185th in the NET rankings.

The Blazers hold an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 109.8 (161st nationally) along with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 105.9 (107th nationally). Charlotte, meanwhile, carries an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 112.9 (109th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 114.4 (282nd nationally).

Betting Trends

These teams met once during the regular season, with the UAB Blazers coming away with an 80–74 victory over the Charlotte 49ers. UAB also covered the 2.5-point spread in that game, and the over (146.5) cashed as well. Looking at the last 10 meetings between these programs, UAB holds a slight edge with six wins. However, Charlotte has been more favorable against the spread, covering in six of those contests, while the over has hit in seven of the last 10 matchups.

Charlotte enters this matchup with a 17-14 ATS record, including a 2-1 mark on neutral courts, a 7-9 record as an underdog, and an 11-8 record in American Conference play. Totals have leaned toward the over in 49ers games this season, hitting in 18 of 31 contests. On neutral courts, however, the under has connected in two of three games. When Charlotte has been an underdog, the over has hit in 10 of 16 games. In conference play, the over has also been favorable, cashing in 12 of 19 contests.

UAB comes into this game with a 15-15 ATS record, including a 2-0 mark on neutral floors, an 8-13 record as a favorite, and a 7-11 record in conference play. Totals have leaned toward the under in Blazers games this season, hitting in 17 of 30 contests. On neutral courts, the under has hit in both games. When UAB has been favored, the under has connected in 11 of 21 matchups, and in conference play the under has hit in 10 of 18 games.

Final Thoughts

This should be another competitive matchup in the American Conference Tournament. The first meeting between these teams was closely contested, and games between familiar conference opponents often come down to the final few possessions.

While Charlotte may have a difficult time pulling out the outright win, I do expect the 49ers to keep things close enough to cover the spread. As for the total, the conflicting trends make it a tough call, so I would stay away from it in this matchup.