Game: Charlotte 49ers vs. South Florida Bulls

Date: March 14th at 3:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN2

The beauty of March basketball is exactly what the Charlotte 49ers men’s basketball are embodying right now. This was a team many people wrote off heading into the tournament, viewed as one of the longer shots in the conference to make any real noise. Yet after winning their first two games, they now find themselves in the semifinal round against the conference’s crown jewel, the South Florida Bulls men’s basketball.

With those two victories, Charlotte has moved back above the .500 mark overall, now sitting at 17–16 with an 11–9 conference record when including tournament games. USF will represent a Quad 1 matchup for the 49ers, a quadrant in which Charlotte is currently 0–4 this season. Charlotte enters this contest averaging 73.3 points per game (219th in Division I) while allowing 73.9 points per game (158th in Division I).

South Florida, meanwhile, will be making its first appearance in the semifinals of the American Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament after capturing the American Conference regular-season title. The Bulls enter with an impressive 23–8 overall record and a 15–3 mark in conference play. Charlotte qualifies as a Quad 3 opponent for USF, and the Bulls are 6–3 against teams in that quadrant this season. South Florida finished the regular season averaging an explosive 87.6 points per game (6th in Division I) while allowing 77.4 points per contest (247th in Division I).

Even with Charlotte’s strong play through the first two games of this tournament, this matchup still presents a significant challenge against a high-powered South Florida team.

Embed from Getty Images

Betting Overview

There has been considerable stability in the betting market for this matchup. The line opened with South Florida listed as a 14.5-point favorite and has largely remained at that number.

The moneyline has seen a slight shift, however. Charlotte has moved from +750 to around +900 at some sportsbooks, while South Florida has shifted from roughly -1200 to about -1400.

The total has shown a bit more variation depending on the sportsbook, with some books listing it at 153.5 while others have it between 154 and 154.5.

KenPom Ratings

According to KenPom, South Florida enters the game ranked 52nd nationally with a net rating of +15.25, while Charlotte sits 181st with a net rating of -1.10.

The Bulls currently hold an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 117.6 (59th nationally) along with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 102.4 (55th nationally). Charlotte, on the other hand, has an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 113.4 (105th nationally) paired with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 114.5 (284th nationally).

Betting Trends

These teams faced off just a week ago, and the South Florida Bulls men’s basketball showed their dominance in that matchup, winning 83–60 while covering the 17.5-point spread. The under (156) also cashed in that game. Looking back at the four meetings prior to that contest, South Florida won three of them, each team covered twice, and the over was the more common result, hitting in three of those four matchups.

The Charlotte 49ers men’s basketball enter this game with an 18-14 ATS record, including a strong 3-1 mark on neutral courts, an 8-9 record as an underdog, and a 12-8 record in American Conference play. Totals have leaned toward the over in Charlotte games this season, hitting in 19 of 32 contests. On neutral courts, totals have split evenly at two overs and two unders. When Charlotte has been listed as an underdog, the over has hit in 11 of 17 games, and in conference play the over has connected in 13 of 20 matchups.

South Florida comes into this contest with a 16-14 ATS record, including an 0-4 mark on neutral floors, a 13-11 record as a favorite, and a 10-8 record in conference play. Totals in Bulls games have leaned slightly toward the under, hitting in 16 of 30 contests. In neutral-site games, totals have split two overs and two unders. When South Florida has been favored, the under has hit in 14 of 24 matchups, and in conference games the under has connected in 11 of 18 contests.

Final Thoughts

This represents a massive opportunity for Charlotte as they face the top team in the American Athletic Conference. A win here would send the 49ers to the championship game and potentially put them one victory away from a trip to the NCAA Tournament.

While pulling off the outright upset will certainly be a tall task against such a talented South Florida team, Charlotte has shown resilience throughout this tournament. Because of that, I expect the 49ers to keep things competitive and ultimately cover the sizable 14.5-point spread. As for the total, I would lean slightly toward the over in this matchup.