Game: Appalachian State Mountaineers at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

Date: September 13th at 7:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN+

The App State Mountaineers and Southern Miss Golden Eagles will open Sun Belt conference play tomorrow night. The Mountaineers enter at 2-0, after looking strong in Week 1, particularly from the second quarter on. In Week 2, things ended much closer than Mountaineer fans would like, but they managed to pull out the win over Lindenwood. Southern Miss comes in at 1-1, losing their opener to Mississippi State before defeating Jackson State last week. Offensively, App State appears more focused on the passing game, as quarterback AJ Swann has 80 attempts through two weeks, already surpassing 650 yards. Defensively, the Mountaineers have played well so far, though their opponents have been inferior. Southern Miss has featured a fairly balanced attack, struggling with the run against Mississippi State, but finding success against Jackson State. Defensively, the Golden Eagles tightened things up in Week 2 after a tough showing in their opener.

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Weather

Since this game is at night, heat will not be a factor, with kickoff projected at 83℉ before dropping into the mid-to-high 70s after sundown. There is also a 0% chance of rain, and wind should not play much of a role, averaging around 6 MPH with gusts up to 10 MPH.

Betting Overview

When the line for this game opened, sportsbooks had App State at -1.5, but most now list them at -3.5. The moneyline initially favored Southern Miss at -115, but it has since shifted toward App State, now sitting between -170 and -175, while Southern Miss has moved to +145 at most books. The over/under has also climbed significantly from the opening number of 51.5, now listed at either 56.5 or 57 depending on the sportsbook.

Power Ratings

All major power ratings have App State ranked ahead of Southern Miss, which is also reflected in the current betting lines. ESPN’s FPI and SP+ both place App State significantly higher than Southern Miss. Sagarin, on the other hand, has the teams much closer, with App State at 113 and Southern Miss at 121.

Betting Trends From Last Season

Appalachian State was not particularly strong on the road ATS last season, finishing 2-4-0 overall. They played only two road games as the favorite, going 1-1 in those matchups. In conference play, they were 3-4-1 ATS. The under was far more common in these contests, cashing in 4 of 6 road games and both times as an away favorite. Within conference games, the under also hit in 6 of 8 App State matchups last season.

Southern Miss was also below average ATS last year, going 3-3 at home, including 2-3-0 as a home underdog. Conference results were worse, with a 3-5-0 record ATS. The under was prominent as well, hitting in 4 of 6 home games and in 3 of 5 when Southern Miss entered as a home underdog.

Final Thoughts

Many App State fans remain unconvinced about new head coach Dowell Loggains. I do think this is a great opportunity for him to get App State started on the right foot in conference play. While the game is on the road, it comes against a team that went 1-11 overall last season. If App State can get off to a strong offensive start, they should not only win this game but also cover in a big way.