In the No. 1 vs. No. 4 matchup in the NCAA Tournament West Region, Arizona vs. Arkansas is the Sweet 16 game at 9:45 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 26 with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line.

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How to Watch Arizona vs. Arkansas

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When: 9:45 pm ET on Thursday, March 26

Where: SAP Center in San Jose, CA

Watch: CBS

Odds for Arizona vs. Arkansas

(odds current at time of publish)

Spread: Arizona -8.5 (-110), Arkansas +8.5 (-110)

Total: Over 166.5 (-110), Under 166.5 (-110)

Arizona vs. Arkansas Prediction & Preview

Tommy Lloyd might hear a lot of chatter this week. This isn’t his first rodeo in the Sweet 16, but he’s never been on a bull in the Elite Eight. The Wildcats have lost three times in four years in the Sweet 16 round, including back in his first season in 2022 as a No. 1 seed. That was against an under-seeded Houston team as a 5. This year’s test is Arkansas as a No. 4 seed. John Calipari’s team won the SEC Tournament, so maybe they could’ve been a 3, but they’re pretty much right where they belong.

Despite a lot of non-conference Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 1-A data points for both teams, this will be the first time that they’ve crossed paths. Arkansas lost to Michigan State, Duke, and Houston while beating Louisville and Texas Tech before getting into SEC play. Arizona started 23-0, including triumphs over Florida and Alabama from the SEC, plus UCLA, UConn, and San Diego State in their other marquee non-conference tilts.

In that same breath, Arizona is 16-2 in Q1/Q1A games, while Arkansas is just 8-8. And it’s probably worth noting that in a year where Cinderellas by and large had cracked glass slippers cutting into their feet, the Razorbacks have drawn No. 13 Hawaii and No. 12 High Point, allowing 1.018 and 1.138 points per possession in those two games. The boys from Fayetteville have scored 191 points in two games, but Arizona represents about as big of a step up in class as it gets relative to those two schools.

In looking at the full body of work, Arizona’s stats stand out relative to what the Razorbacks have done in virtually every way. However, one area of concern for the Wildcats remains their very low 3P Rate. They’ve taken a 3-pointer on less than 27% of their shots. Because they’ve held opponents collectively to 31.1% from deep, it hasn’t caught up with them very often. But, now that we’re getting down to the pressure-cooker rounds of the NCAA Tournament, it is something I simply cannot shake from my mind.

Fortunately for Lloyd and his team, Arkansas doesn’t shoot a lot of 3s either. The Razorbacks have a 3P Rate of just 32.9%, as they are reliant on 2-pointers as well. When they do shoot 3s, they’re firing at about a 39% clip. But, it’s not something that they do frequently and that could make this a bad matchup for them. The Wildcats are second in the nation in 2P% defense and the Razorbacks are 275th. In battle in the paint, Arizona is going to be extremely hard to beat, even if they have only forced 15 turnovers in two NCAA Tournament games, including just four in the second round against Utah State.

There’s a ton of star power on both sides, including four extremely talented freshmen in Darius Acuff Jr., Meleek Thomas, Koa Peat, and Brayden Burries. As the lights are getting brighter, we’ll see how the youngsters handle it, but there’s good upperclassmen leadership on both rosters as well. Ultimately, who you take on the spread and moneyline here may come down to how much you trust Lloyd given his history in this round.

Estimated Score: TBD

For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.

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